Potential carbon stock distribution of mangrove and synergistic effect of ecosystem services in China

• Published in: Ecological indicators Vol. 178; p. 113931
• Main Authors: Liu, Shuhao, He, Shuai, Chen, Shang
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.09.2025; Elsevier
• Subjects: carbon; Carbon sequestration; carbon sinks; China; climate change; empirical models; estuaries; Generalized additive model; geographical distribution; habitats; Mangrove distribution; mangrove ecosystems; oxygen; rivers; salinity; spatial variation; Species distribution model; synergism; temperature; water quality; Water quality regulation; China; Species distribution model; Water quality regulation; Carbon sequestration; Generalized additive model; Mangrove distribution
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113931
• ISSN: 1470-160X

•Tree-based algorithms achieve high accuracy in predicting mangrove habitat.•Predicted northern boundary of mangrove distribution extends to 28.26°N.•South China has higher carbon stock, mainly driven by the annual temperature range.•There is a synergy between carbon sequestration and water quality regulation.•A higher synergy exists between carbon stocks >200 Mg/ha and water transparency <9 m. Mangroves have remarkable carbon stock capabilities and provide numerous ecosystem services. However, detailed information regarding the distribution of carbon stocks and the trade-offs or synergies among mangrove ecosystem services remains limited. In this study, we first modeled mangrove potential habitat distribution in China using the species distribution model. Subsequently, we quantified the potential carbon stock of whole-tree mangroves within habitat patches through the empirical model. Finally, we evaluated the relationship between carbon sequestration and water quality regulation using the generalized additive model. Our results demonstrated that tree-based algorithms exhibited high predictive accuracy. The provinces of Hainan and the Pearl River estuary in Guangdong were identified as having higher habitat suitability. The predicted northernmost boundary of mangrove distribution was at 28.26°N. The potential carbon stock displayed significant spatial heterogeneity, with higher values in the south and lower in the north. The average potential carbon stock of whole-tree mangroves in China was 198.85 Mg/ha, with above-ground and below-ground carbon stocks averaging 66.28 Mg/ha and 132.57 Mg/ha, respectively. Temperature annual range was identified as the most critical factor influencing mangrove potential carbon stock distribution, followed by sea surface salinity, mean temperature of the driest quarter, sea surface dissolved oxygen, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter. A synergy was observed between carbon sequestration and water quality regulation within mangrove ecosystems. This synergy intensified when carbon stock exceeded 200 Mg/ha, but weakened when water transparency surpassed 9 m. These findings offer large-scale maps of mangrove carbon stocks and can inform strategies for sustainable mangrove management and climate change mitigation.