Deterring Rebellion
Global terrorism and local rebellion are observed rather frequently; solutions appear to be rather sparse. A common strategy adopted by governments is to attempt to deter potential rebels from engaging in acts of violence, often by responding to attacks with violent reprisals directed at the populac...
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Published in | Foreign policy analysis Vol. 7; no. 3; pp. 295 - 316 |
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Main Authors | , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
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Oxford, UK
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
01.07.2011
Wiley Periodicals, Inc |
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Abstract | Global terrorism and local rebellion are observed rather frequently; solutions appear to be rather sparse. A common strategy adopted by governments is to attempt to deter potential rebels from engaging in acts of violence, often by responding to attacks with violent reprisals directed at the populace from which the rebels are recruited. The logic supporting such a strategy follows from a theory of deterrence that we believe is underdeveloped. This theory focuses heavily on the credibility of the deterrent threat and on ensuring that the cost imposed by retaliation is high. This ignores the flip side of the deterrent threat—that is, the promise that if one does not misbehave (by engaging in acts of rebellion), one will not suffer retaliatory punishment. Policy designed to ensure that punishment is swift and severe (and perhaps disproportional) can undermine deterrence and actually encourage more potential rebels to become active. Using a game-theoretic model, we show that successful deterrence requires a strategy in which retaliation is proportionate and directed only at the guilty, as well as being certain. Moreover, potential rebels must believe that the innocent will have attractive opportunities outside of joining the insurgency as well as that the innocent will not be punished. We provide empirical illustrations of our thesis from participants in the Palestinian uprising, including several who have taken up arms against Israel. |
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AbstractList | Global terrorism and local rebellion are observed rather frequently; solutions appear to be rather sparse. A common strategy adopted by governments is to attempt to deter potential rebels from engaging in acts of violence, often by responding to attacks with violent reprisals directed at the populace from which the rebels are recruited. The logic supporting such a strategy follows from a theory of deterrence that we believe is underdeveloped. This theory focuses heavily on the credibility of the deterrent threat and on ensuring that the cost imposed by retaliation is high. This ignores the flip side of the deterrent threat—that is, the promise that if one does not misbehave (by engaging in acts of rebellion), one will not suffer retaliatory punishment. Policy designed to ensure that punishment is swift and severe (and perhaps disproportional) can undermine deterrence and actually encourage more potential rebels to become active. Using a game-theoretic model, we show that successful deterrence requires a strategy in which retaliation is proportionate and directed only at the guilty, as well as being certain. Moreover, potential rebels must believe that the innocent will have attractive opportunities outside of joining the insurgency as well as that the innocent will not be punished. We provide empirical illustrations of our thesis from participants in the Palestinian uprising, including several who have taken up arms against Israel. |
Author | Machain, Carla Martinez Clifton Morgan, T. Regan, Patrick M. |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Carla Martinez surname: Machain fullname: Machain, Carla Martinez organization: Rice University – sequence: 2 givenname: T. surname: Clifton Morgan fullname: Clifton Morgan, T. organization: Rice University – sequence: 3 givenname: Patrick M. surname: Regan fullname: Regan, Patrick M. organization: Binghamton University |
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Cites_doi | 10.1177/0022002704272863 10.1017/CBO9780511510021 10.1177/0022002704273441 10.1177/0022343309334613 10.1177/0022002700044001006 10.1177/0022002702046001007 10.1177/0022343302039005007 10.1177/0010414098031002001 10.2307/2111650 10.2307/j.ctt211qwdk 10.1177/1065912908322405 10.1177/0022002704272193 10.1177/0022343396033003003 10.1017/CBO9780511491788 10.1080/01436590220108207 10.2307/2600536 10.1080/07388940701643607 10.1080/03050620903554069 10.1177/002200275900300206 10.1017/CBO9780511818462 10.1353/book.74118 10.1177/0022002795039002007 10.2307/20029443 10.4324/9780203089002 10.1177/0022002707304814 10.1177/0022002706293469 10.1177/0022002795039002003 10.1177/002200277201600307 10.1177/002200276000400201 10.1515/9781400877164 10.1109/AERO.2009.4839642 10.1177/0022002706293673 |
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Snippet | Global terrorism and local rebellion are observed rather frequently; solutions appear to be rather sparse. A common strategy adopted by governments is to... |
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SubjectTerms | Behavior deterrence Conflict resolution Credible threats Military deterrence Political violence Rebellion Repression Terrorism Terrorists Violence |
Title | Deterring Rebellion |
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