Terms and conditions apply: the effect of probation length and obligation disclosure on true and false guilty pleas

• Published in: Journal of experimental criminology Vol. 20; no. 2; pp. 457 - 483
• Main Authors: Yan, Shi, Wilford, Miko M., Ferreira, Patricia A.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.06.2024; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Computer simulation; Criminal pleas; Criminal sentences; Criminology; Criminology and Criminal Justice; Decision making; Imprisonment; Law and Criminolgy; Parole & probation; Plea bargaining; Political Science; Social Sciences; Trials; Probation obligations; False guilty pleas; Guilty pleas; Probation; Computer simulation; Plea bargaining
• DOI: 10.1007/s11292-022-09543-9
• ISSN: 1573-3750

Objectives Although the literature suggests wrongful guilty pleas exist, less attention has been devoted to the false guilty pleas to probation sentences. We examined the plea decision-making process when participants faced probation. Methods We conducted a 2 (guilt status: innocent or guilty) × 2 (probation length: 1 year or 5 years) × 2 (probation obligations: general or detailed disclosure) between-participant experiment using an online sample ( N  = 906). Participants were randomly assigned to one of eight conditions and were asked whether they would accept a plea offer. Results Participants who were guilty and faced a shorter probation sentence were more likely to plead guilty. Participants receiving detailed disclosure were less likely to plead guilty, but the effect was less robust. Participants who faced a longer sentence and received detailed disclosure reported larger declines in plea willingness. Conclusion The findings suggest that criminal defendants are sensitive to the length and disclosure of probation sentences.