Spatiotemporal climate variability and extremes in Middle Awash Afar region Ethiopia: implications to pastoralists and agro-pastoralists food security

• Published in: International journal of climate change strategies and management Vol. 16; no. 2; pp. 228 - 252
• Main Authors: Aytenfisu, Ameha Tadesse, Tolossa, Degefa, Feleke, Solomon Tsehay, Ayal, Desalegn Yayeh
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Bingley Emerald Publishing Limited 21.06.2024; Emerald Group Publishing Limited
• Subjects: Agricultural drought; Annual rainfall; Climate change; Climate variability; Coefficient of variation; Drought; Drought analysis; Evapotranspiration; Evapotranspiration-precipitation relationships; Food security; Households; Livelihoods; Precipitation; Rain; Rainfall; Rainfall variability; Random variables; Regression analysis; Seasonal rainfall; Seasonal variability; Seasonal variations; Standardized precipitation index; Statistical methods; Statistics; Temperature; Temperature rise; Temporal variations; Time series; Trends; Ethiopia; Climate change; Flood; Climate variability; Food security; Afar; Drought; Livelihoods
• ISSN: 1756-8692; 1756-8692; 1756-8706
• DOI: 10.1108/IJCCSM-11-2023-0140

Purpose This study aims to examine the phenomenon of climate variability and its implications for pastoralists and agro-pastoralists food security in Amibara and Awash Fentale districts of the Afar region, Ethiopia. Design/methodology/approach The study relied on meteorological records of temperature and rainfall in the study area between 1988 and 2018. Besides, literature on the topic was reviewed to make caveats on the literal picture that comes from quantitative data, and that is the contribution of this study to the existing debate on climate change and variability. The spatiotemporal trend was determined using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, while variability was analyzed using the coefficient of variation and standardized anomaly index, and standardized precipitation index/standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index were applied to determine the drought frequency and severity. Findings The result reveals that the mean seasonal rainfall varies from 111.34 mm to 518.74 mm. Although the maximum and minimum rainfall occurred in the summer and winter seasons, respectively, there has been a decrease in seasonal and annual at the rate of 2.51 mm per season and 4.12 mm per year, respectively. The study sites have been experiencing highly seasonal rainfall variability. The drought analysis result confirms that a total of nine agricultural droughts ranging from moderate to extreme years were observed. Overall, the seasonal and annual rainfall of the Amibara and Awash Fentale districts showed a decreasing trend with highly temporal variations of rainfall and ever-rising temperatures, and frequent drought events means the climate situation of the area could adversely affect pastoral and agro-pastoral households’ food security. However, analysis of data from secondary sources reveals that analyzing precipitation just based on the meteorological records of the study area would be misleading. That explains why flooding, rather than drought, is becoming the main source of catastrophe to pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods. Practical implications The analysis of temperature and rainfall dynamics in the Afar region, hence the inception of all development interventions, must take the hydrological impact of the neighboring regions which appears to be useful direction to future researchers. Originality/value The research is originally conducted using meteorological and existing literature, and hence, it is original. In this research, we utilized a standardized and appropriate methodology, resulting in insights that augment the existing body of knowledge within the field. These insights serve to advance scholarly discourse on the subject matter.