Beyond innovation and deployment: Modeling the impact of technology-push and demand-pull policies in Germany's solar policy mix
Governments around the world try to accelerate sociotechnical change toward sustainability by introducing policy mixes that combine technology-push and demand-pull instruments. Beyond innovation and deployment, other objectives, such as domestic job and industry creation, are usually part of these p...
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Published in | Research policy Vol. 51; no. 10; p. 104585 |
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Main Authors | , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
Elsevier B.V
01.12.2022
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Abstract | Governments around the world try to accelerate sociotechnical change toward sustainability by introducing policy mixes that combine technology-push and demand-pull instruments. Beyond innovation and deployment, other objectives, such as domestic job and industry creation, are usually part of these policy mixes. However, little is known about how policy mixes should be designed and interactions between policy instruments considered when governments try to achieve multiple objectives simultaneously. We address these questions using an agent-based model of the sociotechnical system for solar photovoltaics in Germany that simulates technology adoption, industry dynamics, international spillovers and trade. By changing public spending on research and development and the solar feed-in tariff, forty-five variations of the historical policy mix in Germany are systematically evaluated. The results show that a narrow focus on innovation and deployment outcomes by academic researchers can lead to recommendations for the design of policy mixes that compromise key dimensions of sociotechnical change, such as job creation. Moreover, the simulations reveal that, because of path-dependent interactions between policy instruments, minor changes in the design of policy instruments can lead to vastly different policy outcomes. These findings have important implications for the literature on policy mixes, technology-push and demand-pull instruments, and sociotechnical transitions.
•Little is known about how to design policy mixes for multiple policy objectives.•What emphasis to place on technology-push and demand-pull is still debated.•We analyze 45 variations of Germany's solar policy mix using an agent-based model.•Interactions between both policies are key for goals beyond innovation & deployment.•Near configuration boundaries, small policy changes bring big sociotechnical change. |
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AbstractList | Governments around the world try to accelerate sociotechnical change toward sustainability by introducing policy mixes that combine technology-push and demand-pull instruments. Beyond innovation and deployment, other objectives, such as domestic job and industry creation, are usually part of these policy mixes. However, little is known about how policy mixes should be designed and interactions between policy instruments considered when governments try to achieve multiple objectives simultaneously. We address these questions using an agent-based model of the sociotechnical system for solar photovoltaics in Germany that simulates technology adoption, industry dynamics, international spillovers and trade. By changing public spending on research and development and the solar feed-in tariff, forty-five variations of the historical policy mix in Germany are systematically evaluated. The results show that a narrow focus on innovation and deployment outcomes by academic researchers can lead to recommendations for the design of policy mixes that compromise key dimensions of sociotechnical change, such as job creation. Moreover, the simulations reveal that, because of path-dependent interactions between policy instruments, minor changes in the design of policy instruments can lead to vastly different policy outcomes. These findings have important implications for the literature on policy mixes, technology-push and demand-pull instruments, and sociotechnical transitions.
•Little is known about how to design policy mixes for multiple policy objectives.•What emphasis to place on technology-push and demand-pull is still debated.•We analyze 45 variations of Germany's solar policy mix using an agent-based model.•Interactions between both policies are key for goals beyond innovation & deployment.•Near configuration boundaries, small policy changes bring big sociotechnical change. |
ArticleNumber | 104585 |
Author | Hoppmann, Joern Knoeri, Christof Hoffmann, Volker H. Nuñez-Jimenez, Alejandro |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Alejandro orcidid: 0000-0002-1505-9772 surname: Nuñez-Jimenez fullname: Nuñez-Jimenez, Alejandro email: anunez-jimenez@ethz.ch organization: Group for Sustainability and Technology, ETH Zurich, Weinbergstrasse 56/58, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland – sequence: 2 givenname: Christof orcidid: 0000-0003-0355-1011 surname: Knoeri fullname: Knoeri, Christof organization: Group for Sustainability and Technology, ETH Zurich, Weinbergstrasse 56/58, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland – sequence: 3 givenname: Joern orcidid: 0000-0002-1820-6600 surname: Hoppmann fullname: Hoppmann, Joern organization: Group for Sustainability and Technology, ETH Zurich, Weinbergstrasse 56/58, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland – sequence: 4 givenname: Volker H. surname: Hoffmann fullname: Hoffmann, Volker H. organization: Group for Sustainability and Technology, ETH Zurich, Weinbergstrasse 56/58, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland |
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CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_1038_s43247_024_01494_5 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_landusepol_2023_106909 crossref_primary_10_1073_pnas_2215684120 crossref_primary_10_1080_10438599_2024_2304580 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11356_023_30589_3 crossref_primary_10_1155_2022_5141431 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_techfore_2023_122767 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_apenergy_2023_121265 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_eti_2024_103595 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_technovation_2023_102868 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_techfore_2022_122273 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ad101e crossref_primary_10_1016_j_techsoc_2022_102175 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_enpol_2023_113477 |
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Keywords | Demand-pull Agent-based modeling Innovation Policy mix Technology-push Solar photovoltaics |
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41 Jaxa-Rozen (10.1016/j.respol.2022.104585_bb0265) 2018; 21 German Census (10.1016/j.respol.2022.104585_bb0135) Gomel (10.1016/j.respol.2022.104585_bb0150) 2020; 36 Gunningham (10.1016/j.respol.2022.104585_bb0170) 1999; 21 Lamperti (10.1016/j.respol.2022.104585_bb0325) 2019; 9 del Río (10.1016/j.respol.2022.104585_bb0440) 2010; 38 Edmondson (10.1016/j.respol.2022.104585_bb0090) 2019; 48 Corradini (10.1016/j.respol.2022.104585_bb0060) 2018; 120 IEA (10.1016/j.respol.2022.104585_bb0225) 2020 Mulugetta (10.1016/j.respol.2022.104585_bb0360) 2019; 14 Ding (10.1016/j.respol.2022.104585_bb0075) 2020; 124 Dosi (10.1016/j.respol.2022.104585_bb0080) Rogge (10.1016/j.respol.2022.104585_bb0455) 2016; 45 Nauwelaers (10.1016/j.respol.2022.104585_bb0365) Geels (10.1016/j.respol.2022.104585_bb0130) 2004; 33 Mowery (10.1016/j.respol.2022.104585_bb0355) 2010; 39 Qiu (10.1016/j.respol.2022.104585_bb0415) 2012; 34 Hille (10.1016/j.respol.2022.104585_bb0185) 2020; 153 Buchholz (10.1016/j.respol.2022.104585_bb0025) 2019; 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Snippet | Governments around the world try to accelerate sociotechnical change toward sustainability by introducing policy mixes that combine technology-push and... |
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SubjectTerms | Agent-based modeling Demand-pull Innovation Policy mix Solar photovoltaics Technology-push |
Title | Beyond innovation and deployment: Modeling the impact of technology-push and demand-pull policies in Germany's solar policy mix |
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