Causal Inference without Counterfactuals

• Published in: Journal of the American Statistical Association Vol. 95; no. 450; pp. 407 - 424
• Main Author: Dawid, A. P.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington Taylor & Francis Group 01.06.2000; American Statistical Association
• Subjects: Ambiguity; Average causal effect; Bayesian method; Causal inference; Causation; Cause; Causes of effects; Contrafactuals; Data analysis; Determinism; Effects; Effects of causes; Empiricism; Headache; Inference; Metaphysical model; Metaphysics; Modeling; Potential response; Statistical methods; Statistical variance; Theory and Methods; Treatment-unit additivity

A popular approach to the framing and answering of causal questions relies on the idea of counterfactuals: Outcomes that would have been observed had the world developed differently; for example, if the patient had received a different treatment. By definition, one can never observe such quantities,...