Tropical Cyclone Hazard to Mumbai in the Recent Historical Climate
The hazard to the city of Mumbai, India, from a possible severe tropical cyclone under the recent historical climate is considered. The authors first determine, based on a review of primary sources, that the Bombay Cyclone of 1882, documented in a number of print and Internet sources and claimed to...
Saved in:
Published in | Monthly weather review Vol. 147; no. 7; pp. 2355 - 2366 |
---|---|
Main Authors | , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
Washington
American Meteorological Society
01.07.2019
|
Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
Cover
Loading…
Abstract | The hazard to the city of Mumbai, India, from a possible severe tropical cyclone under the recent historical climate is considered. The authors first determine, based on a review of primary sources, that the Bombay Cyclone of 1882, documented in a number of print and Internet sources and claimed to have caused 100 000 or more deaths, did not occur. Two different tropical cyclone hazard models, both of which generate large numbers of synthetic cyclones using environmental data—here taken from reanalyses in the satellite era—as input, are then used to quantify the hazard, in conjunction with historical observations. Both models indicate that a severe cyclone landfall at or near Mumbai is possible, though unlikely in any given year. Return periods for wind speeds exceeding 100 kt (1 kt = 0.5144 m s−1) (the threshold for category 3 in the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale) at Mumbai itself are estimated to be in the range of thousands to greater than 10 000 years, while the return period for a storm with maximum wind speed of 100 kt or greater passing within 150 km of Mumbai (possibly close enough to generate a substantial storm surge at the city) is estimated to be around 500 years. Return periods for winds exceeding 65 kt (hurricane intensity on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale) are estimated to be around 200 years at Mumbai itself, and 50–90 years within 150 km. Climate change is not explicitly considered in this study, but the hazard to the city is likely to be increasing because of sea level rise as well as changes in storm climatology. |
---|---|
AbstractList | The hazard to the city of Mumbai, India, from a possible severe tropical cyclone under the recent historical climate is considered. The authors first determine, based on a review of primary sources, that the Bombay Cyclone of 1882, documented in a number of print and Internet sources and claimed to have caused 100 000 or more deaths, did not occur. Two different tropical cyclone hazard models, both of which generate large numbers of synthetic cyclones using environmental data—here taken from reanalyses in the satellite era—as input, are then used to quantify the hazard, in conjunction with historical observations. Both models indicate that a severe cyclone landfall at or near Mumbai is possible, though unlikely in any given year. Return periods for wind speeds exceeding 100 kt (1 kt = 0.5144 m s−1) (the threshold for category 3 in the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale) at Mumbai itself are estimated to be in the range of thousands to greater than 10 000 years, while the return period for a storm with maximum wind speed of 100 kt or greater passing within 150 km of Mumbai (possibly close enough to generate a substantial storm surge at the city) is estimated to be around 500 years. Return periods for winds exceeding 65 kt (hurricane intensity on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale) are estimated to be around 200 years at Mumbai itself, and 50–90 years within 150 km. Climate change is not explicitly considered in this study, but the hazard to the city is likely to be increasing because of sea level rise as well as changes in storm climatology. |
Author | Emanuel, Kerry A. Lee, Chia-Ying Mukhopadhyay, Parthasarathi Mandli, Kyle T. Camargo, Suzana J. Mahakur, M. Sobel, Adam H. |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Adam H. surname: Sobel fullname: Sobel, Adam H. organization: Columbia University, New York, New York – sequence: 2 givenname: Chia-Ying surname: Lee fullname: Lee, Chia-Ying organization: Columbia University, New York, New York – sequence: 3 givenname: Suzana J. surname: Camargo fullname: Camargo, Suzana J. organization: Columbia University, New York, New York – sequence: 4 givenname: Kyle T. surname: Mandli fullname: Mandli, Kyle T. organization: Columbia University, New York, New York – sequence: 5 givenname: Kerry A. surname: Emanuel fullname: Emanuel, Kerry A. organization: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts – sequence: 6 givenname: Parthasarathi surname: Mukhopadhyay fullname: Mukhopadhyay, Parthasarathi organization: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra, India – sequence: 7 givenname: M. surname: Mahakur fullname: Mahakur, M. organization: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra, India |
BookMark | eNotkM1LAzEUxINUsK2evQY8b_tePjbZo7ZqhRahVDyGbJLFLdvdmk0P9a93pZ6GBzPzht-EjNquDYTcI8wQlZxvPrfZMkOdgcBihldkjJLBcBV8RMYATGWQC3FDJn2_B4A8F2xMnnaxO9bONnRxds3QSFf2x0ZPU0c3p0Npa1q3NH0Fug0utImu6j518ZJo6oNN4ZZcV7bpw92_TsnHy_NuscrW769vi8d15jhCyjSrGAOhWW4r4I5ZpkrmlfW-FOBRlYXWUqDmrkQvtcJS5GVVMe7BK2EFn5KHS-8xdt-n0Cez706xHV4axgtZMKlADq75xeVi1_cxVOYYh5nxbBDMHygzgDJLg9r8gTLIfwFU31vI |
CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_1175_JAMC_D_22_0056_1 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tcrr_2023_10_001 crossref_primary_10_1002_qj_4299 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_oceaneng_2023_113662 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11356_024_33017_2 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41467_022_33918_1 crossref_primary_10_1175_MWR_D_22_0048_1 crossref_primary_10_1175_JAMC_D_21_0102_1 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_cageo_2021_104798 crossref_primary_10_1215_1089201X_8185983 crossref_primary_10_1080_1943815X_2023_2169712 crossref_primary_10_1029_2020EF001783 crossref_primary_10_1029_2020GL087148 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00477_021_02142_6 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00477_022_02198_y crossref_primary_10_1007_s11069_024_06420_8 |
Cites_doi | 10.1007/s11069-011-9935-0 10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0112.1 10.1126/science.1128448 10.1038/nclimate1979 10.1038/s41558-017-0008-6 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00505.1 10.1002/qj.828 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00638.1 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0509.1 10.1038/nature12855 10.1175/BAMS-87-9-1195 10.1002/grl.50395 10.1002/2017MS001186 10.1038/nclimate1389 10.1175/JCLI3908.1 10.1175/BAMS-89-3-347 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0565.1 10.1007/s00382-012-1407-z 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00171.1 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00646.1 10.1007/s10236-015-0854-6 10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0909.1 10.1175/2010JCLI3611.1 10.1007/s00382-015-2602-5 10.1029/2009JD013630 10.1007/s10584-010-9979-2 10.1175/2010JCLI3811.1 10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2 10.1016/0307-904X(85)90067-8 10.1175/JAS-D-15-0014.1 10.1002/joc.2406 10.1007/s13201-018-0881-9 |
ContentType | Journal Article |
Copyright | Copyright American Meteorological Society Jul 2019 |
Copyright_xml | – notice: Copyright American Meteorological Society Jul 2019 |
DBID | AAYXX CITATION 3V. 7QH 7TG 7TN 7UA 7XB 88F 88I 8AF 8FD 8FE 8FG 8FK 8G5 ABUWG AFKRA ARAPS ATCPS AZQEC BEC BENPR BGLVJ BHPHI BKSAR C1K CCPQU DWQXO F1W GNUQQ GUQSH H8D H96 HCIFZ KL. L.G L7M M1Q M2O M2P MBDVC P5Z P62 PATMY PCBAR PQEST PQQKQ PQUKI PYCSY Q9U S0X |
DOI | 10.1175/MWR-D-18-0419.1 |
DatabaseName | CrossRef ProQuest Central (Corporate) Aqualine Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts Oceanic Abstracts Water Resources Abstracts ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016) Military Database (Alumni Edition) Science Database (Alumni Edition) STEM Database Technology Research Database ProQuest SciTech Collection ProQuest Technology Collection ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016) Research Library (Alumni Edition) ProQuest Central (Alumni) ProQuest Central Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection ProQuest Central Essentials eLibrary ProQuest Central Technology Collection Natural Science Collection Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Collection Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management ProQuest One Community College ProQuest Central ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts ProQuest Central Student Research Library Prep Aerospace Database Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources SciTech Premium Collection Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional Advanced Technologies Database with Aerospace Military Database Research Library Science Database (ProQuest) Research Library (Corporate) Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Database ProQuest Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection Environmental Science Database Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE) ProQuest One Academic ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition Environmental Science Collection ProQuest Central Basic SIRS Editorial |
DatabaseTitle | CrossRef Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional Research Library Prep ProQuest Central Student Technology Collection Technology Research Database ProQuest Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection ProQuest Central Essentials SIRS Editorial elibrary ProQuest AP Science ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition) SciTech Premium Collection ProQuest One Community College Research Library (Alumni Edition) ProQuest Military Collection Water Resources Abstracts Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management ProQuest Central Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Collection Aerospace Database Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts Oceanic Abstracts Natural Science Collection ProQuest Central Korea Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection ProQuest Research Library Advanced Technologies Database with Aerospace Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection ProQuest Science Journals (Alumni Edition) ProQuest Central Basic ProQuest Science Journals ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database ProQuest Technology Collection ProQuest Military Collection (Alumni Edition) ProQuest SciTech Collection Aqualine Environmental Science Collection Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Database Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts Environmental Science Database ProQuest One Academic Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic ProQuest Central (Alumni) |
DatabaseTitleList | Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional CrossRef |
Database_xml | – sequence: 1 dbid: 8FG name: ProQuest Technology Collection url: https://search.proquest.com/technologycollection1 sourceTypes: Aggregation Database |
DeliveryMethod | fulltext_linktorsrc |
Discipline | Meteorology & Climatology |
EISSN | 1520-0493 |
EndPage | 2366 |
ExternalDocumentID | 10_1175_MWR_D_18_0419_1 |
GeographicLocations | Arabian Sea Mumbai India India |
GeographicLocations_xml | – name: Arabian Sea – name: India – name: Mumbai India |
GroupedDBID | -~X .4S .DC 123 29M 4.4 6KP 6TJ 7XC 88I 8AF 8FE 8FG 8FH 8G5 8R4 8R5 AAYXX ABCQX ABDBF ABPPZ ABUWG ACGFO ACGOD ACIHN ADOJD AEAQA AENEX AFKRA AFRAH ALMA_UNASSIGNED_HOLDINGS ALQLQ ARAPS ARCSS ATCPS AZQEC BCU BEC BENPR BES BGLVJ BHPHI BKSAR BLC BPHCQ CCPQU CITATION CS3 D1K DU5 DWQXO E3Z EAD EAP EBS EDH EDO EJD EMK EPL EST ESX F8P FRP GNUQQ GUQSH H13 HCIFZ I-F K6- L7B LK5 M1Q M2O M2P M2Q M7R MV1 OK1 P2P P62 PATMY PCBAR PQQKQ PROAC PYCSY Q2X QF4 QM1 QN7 QO4 RWA RWE RWL RXW S0X SJFOW TAE TN5 TUS U5U UNMZH WH7 ~02 3V. 7QH 7TG 7TN 7UA 7XB 8FD 8FK C1K F1W H8D H96 KL. L.G L7M MBDVC PQEST PQUKI Q9U |
ID | FETCH-LOGICAL-c310t-82f2204826af03c2a27b2d7addb40d17b98854183cb1d5871b46bff23d0d74a43 |
IEDL.DBID | 8FG |
ISSN | 0027-0644 |
IngestDate | Mon Nov 11 05:16:49 EST 2024 Fri Dec 06 03:58:37 EST 2024 |
IsDoiOpenAccess | false |
IsOpenAccess | true |
IsPeerReviewed | true |
IsScholarly | true |
Issue | 7 |
Language | English |
License | http://www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses |
LinkModel | DirectLink |
MergedId | FETCHMERGED-LOGICAL-c310t-82f2204826af03c2a27b2d7addb40d17b98854183cb1d5871b46bff23d0d74a43 |
OpenAccessLink | https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/journals/mwre/147/7/mwr-d-18-0419.1.pdf |
PQID | 2395925705 |
PQPubID | 41865 |
PageCount | 12 |
ParticipantIDs | proquest_journals_2395925705 crossref_primary_10_1175_MWR_D_18_0419_1 |
PublicationCentury | 2000 |
PublicationDate | 2019-07-01 |
PublicationDateYYYYMMDD | 2019-07-01 |
PublicationDate_xml | – month: 07 year: 2019 text: 2019-07-01 day: 01 |
PublicationDecade | 2010 |
PublicationPlace | Washington |
PublicationPlace_xml | – name: Washington |
PublicationTitle | Monthly weather review |
PublicationYear | 2019 |
Publisher | American Meteorological Society |
Publisher_xml | – name: American Meteorological Society |
References | Camargo (2020062002250179900_bib1) 2014; 27 2020062002250179900_bib13 Knaff (2020062002250179900_bib18) 2015; 54 Emanuel (2020062002250179900_bib10) 2008; 89 Landsea (2020062002250179900_bib20) 2006; 313 Dube (2020062002250179900_bib6) 1985; 9 Hall (2020062002250179900_bib14) 2013; 40 Tippett (2020062002250179900_bib34) 2011; 24 Zheng (2020062002250179900_bib41) 2013; 26 Liu (2020062002250179900_bib27) 2015; 65 Velden (2020062002250179900_bib35) 2006; 87 Lee (2020062002250179900_bib23) 2018; 10 Jenamani (2020062002250179900_bib43) 2006; 90 Li (2020062002250179900_bib24) 2016; 29 Murakami (2020062002250179900_bib30) 2013; 40 Lin (2020062002250179900_bib25) 2010; 115 Lin (2020062002250179900_bib26) 2012; 2 Walsh (2020062002250179900_bib36) 2016; 7 Ghosh (2020062002250179900_bib12) 2017 Hoarau (2020062002250179900_bib16) 2012; 32 Ranger (2020062002250179900_bib32) 2011; 104 2020062002250179900_bib38 Sobel (2020062002250179900_bib33) 2014 Eliot (2020062002250179900_bib7) 1893 Woodruff (2020062002250179900_bib39) 2013; 504 2020062002250179900_bib2 Yao (2020062002250179900_bib40) 2016; 46 Dee (2020062002250179900_bib4) 2011; 137 Evan (2020062002250179900_bib11) 2011; 24 Lee (2020062002250179900_bib21) 2015; 143 Chavas (2020062002250179900_bib42) 2015; 72 Knapp (2020062002250179900_bib19) 2010; 91 Emanuel (2020062002250179900_bib9) 2006; 19 Wang (2020062002250179900_bib37) 2017; 30 Hallegatte (2020062002250179900_bib15) 2013; 3 Kalnay (2020062002250179900_bib17) 1996; 77 Longshore (2020062002250179900_bib28) 2008 Lee (2020062002250179900_bib22) 2016; 29 Mohapatra (2020062002250179900_bib29) 2012; 63 Dhiman (2020062002250179900_bib5) 2019; 9 Emanuel (2020062002250179900_bib8) 2005 Murakami (2020062002250179900_bib31) 2017; 7 Daloz (2020062002250179900_bib3) 2015; 28 |
References_xml | – volume: 63 start-page: 1285 year: 2012 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib29 article-title: Best track parameters of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean: A review publication-title: Nat. Hazards doi: 10.1007/s11069-011-9935-0 contributor: fullname: Mohapatra – volume: 7 start-page: 65 year: 2016 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib36 article-title: Tropical cyclones and climate change publication-title: Wiley Interdiscip. Rev.: Climate Change contributor: fullname: Walsh – volume: 54 start-page: 463 year: 2015 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib18 article-title: Improved tropical-cyclone flight-level wind estimates using routine infrared satellite reconnaissance publication-title: J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. doi: 10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0112.1 contributor: fullname: Knaff – volume: 313 start-page: 452 year: 2006 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib20 article-title: Can we detect trends in extreme tropical cyclones? publication-title: Science doi: 10.1126/science.1128448 contributor: fullname: Landsea – volume: 3 start-page: 802 year: 2013 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib15 article-title: Future flood losses in major coastal cities publication-title: Nat. Climate Change doi: 10.1038/nclimate1979 contributor: fullname: Hallegatte – volume: 7 start-page: 885 year: 2017 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib31 article-title: Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea publication-title: Nat. Climate Change doi: 10.1038/s41558-017-0008-6 contributor: fullname: Murakami – volume: 27 start-page: 9171 year: 2014 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib1 article-title: Testing the performance of tropical cyclone genesis indices in future climates using the HIRAM model publication-title: J. Climate doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00505.1 contributor: fullname: Camargo – volume: 137 start-page: 553 year: 2011 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib4 article-title: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system publication-title: Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. doi: 10.1002/qj.828 contributor: fullname: Dee – volume: 26 start-page: 6067 year: 2013 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib41 article-title: Indian Ocean dipole response to global warming in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble publication-title: J. Climate doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00638.1 contributor: fullname: Zheng – year: 2008 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib28 contributor: fullname: Longshore – volume: 30 start-page: 2757 year: 2017 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib37 article-title: Assessing the impact of model biases on the projected increase in frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean dipole events publication-title: J. Climate doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0509.1 contributor: fullname: Wang – ident: 2020062002250179900_bib38 – ident: 2020062002250179900_bib13 – year: 2017 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib12 contributor: fullname: Ghosh – volume: 504 start-page: 44 year: 2013 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib39 article-title: Coastal flooding by tropical cyclones and sea-level rise publication-title: Nature doi: 10.1038/nature12855 contributor: fullname: Woodruff – year: 1893 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib7 contributor: fullname: Eliot – volume: 87 start-page: 1195 year: 2006 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib35 article-title: The Dvorak tropical cyclone intensity estimation technique: A satellite-based method that has endured for over 30 years publication-title: Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-87-9-1195 contributor: fullname: Velden – ident: 2020062002250179900_bib2 – volume: 40 start-page: 2312 year: 2013 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib14 article-title: On the impact angle of Hurricane Sandy’s New Jersey landfall publication-title: Geophys. Res. Lett. doi: 10.1002/grl.50395 contributor: fullname: Hall – volume: 10 start-page: 223 year: 2018 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib23 article-title: An environmentally forced tropical cyclone hazard model publication-title: J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. doi: 10.1002/2017MS001186 contributor: fullname: Lee – volume: 2 start-page: 462 year: 2012 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib26 article-title: Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change publication-title: Nat. Climate Change doi: 10.1038/nclimate1389 contributor: fullname: Lin – volume: 19 start-page: 4797 year: 2006 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib9 article-title: Climate and tropical cyclone activity: A new model downscaling approach publication-title: J. Climate doi: 10.1175/JCLI3908.1 contributor: fullname: Emanuel – volume: 89 start-page: 347 year: 2008 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib10 article-title: Hurricanes and global warming: Results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations publication-title: Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-89-3-347 contributor: fullname: Emanuel – volume: 29 start-page: 5589 year: 2016 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib24 article-title: A robust but spurious pattern of climate change in model projections over the tropical Indian Ocean publication-title: J. Climate doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0565.1 contributor: fullname: Li – volume: 40 start-page: 1949 year: 2013 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib30 article-title: Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean projected by high-resolution MRI-AGCMs publication-title: Climate Dyn. doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1407-z contributor: fullname: Murakami – volume: 143 start-page: 933 year: 2015 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib21 article-title: Probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclone intensity from a multiple-linear regression model publication-title: Mon. Wea. Rev. doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00171.1 contributor: fullname: Lee – volume: 28 start-page: 1333 year: 2015 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib3 article-title: Cluster analysis of downscaled and explicitly simulated North Atlantic tropical cyclones tracks publication-title: J. Climate doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00646.1 contributor: fullname: Daloz – volume: 65 start-page: 1037 year: 2015 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib27 article-title: Understanding the Indian Ocean response to double CO2 forcing in a coupled model publication-title: Ocean Dyn. doi: 10.1007/s10236-015-0854-6 contributor: fullname: Liu – volume: 91 start-page: 363 year: 2010 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib19 article-title: The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS): Unifying tropical cyclone data publication-title: Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. doi: 10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1 contributor: fullname: Knapp – volume: 29 start-page: 7815 year: 2016 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib22 article-title: Autoregressive modeling for tropical cyclone intensity climatology publication-title: J. Climate doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0909.1 contributor: fullname: Lee – volume: 24 start-page: 140 year: 2011 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib11 article-title: A climatology of Arabian Sea cyclonic storms publication-title: J. Climate doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3611.1 contributor: fullname: Evan – volume: 46 start-page: 619 year: 2016 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib40 article-title: Inhomogeneous warming of the tropical Indian Ocean in the CMIP5 model simulations during 1900–2005 and associated mechanisms publication-title: Climate Dyn. doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2602-5 contributor: fullname: Yao – volume: 115 start-page: D18121 year: 2010 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib25 article-title: Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City publication-title: J. Geophys. Res. doi: 10.1029/2009JD013630 contributor: fullname: Lin – volume: 104 start-page: 139 year: 2011 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib32 article-title: An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai publication-title: Climatic Change doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9979-2 contributor: fullname: Ranger – year: 2014 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib33 contributor: fullname: Sobel – volume: 24 start-page: 2335 year: 2011 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib34 article-title: A Poisson regression index for tropical cyclone genesis and the role of large-scale vorticity in genesis publication-title: J. Climate doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3811.1 contributor: fullname: Tippett – volume: 90 start-page: 1344 year: 2006 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib43 article-title: Observational/forecasting aspects of the meteorological event that caused a record highest rainfall in Mumbai publication-title: Curr. Sci. contributor: fullname: Jenamani – volume: 77 start-page: 437 year: 1996 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib17 article-title: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project publication-title: Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2 contributor: fullname: Kalnay – volume: 9 start-page: 289 year: 1985 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib6 article-title: Numerical modelling of storm surges in the Arabian Sea publication-title: Appl. Math. Model. doi: 10.1016/0307-904X(85)90067-8 contributor: fullname: Dube – volume: 72 start-page: 3647 year: 2015 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib42 article-title: A model for the complete radial structure of the tropical cyclone wind field. Part I: Comparison with observed structure publication-title: J. Atmos. Sci. doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-15-0014.1 contributor: fullname: Chavas – year: 2005 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib8 contributor: fullname: Emanuel – volume: 32 start-page: 1935 year: 2012 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib16 article-title: Intense tropical cyclone activities in the northern Indian Ocean publication-title: Int. J. Climatol. doi: 10.1002/joc.2406 contributor: fullname: Hoarau – volume: 9 year: 2019 ident: 2020062002250179900_bib5 article-title: Flood risk and adaptation in Indian coastal cities: Recent scenarios publication-title: Appl. Water Sci. doi: 10.1007/s13201-018-0881-9 contributor: fullname: Dhiman |
SSID | ssj0006642 |
Score | 2.4391987 |
Snippet | The hazard to the city of Mumbai, India, from a possible severe tropical cyclone under the recent historical climate is considered. The authors first... |
SourceID | proquest crossref |
SourceType | Aggregation Database |
StartPage | 2355 |
SubjectTerms | Archives & records Climate change Climatology Cyclones Datasets Environmental conditions Hurricane winds Hurricanes Sea level Sea level changes Sea level rise Storm surges Storms Tropical climate Tropical cyclones Weather hazards Wind Wind speed Winds |
Title | Tropical Cyclone Hazard to Mumbai in the Recent Historical Climate |
URI | https://www.proquest.com/docview/2395925705 |
Volume | 147 |
hasFullText | 1 |
inHoldings | 1 |
isFullTextHit | |
isPrint | |
link | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwfV1NSwMxEA1aL17ET6xWyUHES7TJJpvkJLa1FqEiougt5GMXCrVbaz3or3eyTRUvnpawsCwzZN6byWQeQicaKAgraEmYFI5wD3mKzrUiISgrHCCG1_GC8_AuHzzx2xfxkgpu76mtchkT60AdKh9r5Bcs00JHyTVxOX0jUTUqnq4mCY1VtEaZzGNLn-rf_ETiPOdpWnhs8eI8jfYBxLwYPj-QHqGKtDnV5_QvKv0NyjXS9DfRRqKI-Grh0y20Uky2UXMI7Laa1UVwfIq74xFQzXq1gzqPs2oajY27n35cTQo8sF_geTyv8PDj1dkRHk0wMD0MJBFABv_OBkkfKnbRU__6sTsgSRuBeCBkc6JYyeLMXZbbsp15Zpl0LEiIVo63A5VOKyU47FfvaBCQFTmeu7JkWWgHyS3P9lBjAj-0j7C3tJQ2EyordVRGtyoIyFsclaoog_VNdLa0jZkuRmCYOnWQwoAZTc9QZaIZDW2i1tJ2Ju2Fd_PruYP_Xx-idaAjetEM20KN-eyjOALIn7vj2q_HaO2q0-v04dm5vrt_-AZv2Kuj |
link.rule.ids | 314,780,784,12765,21388,27924,27925,33373,33744,43600,43805,74035,74302 |
linkProvider | ProQuest |
linkToHtml | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwfV07T8MwELagDLAgnqI8PSDEYqgdO7EnBIVSHmFARbBZfiRSJWhKaQf49ZxTF8TCGFmKrDv5-747n-8QOlQgQVhBS8IyYQl3EKeoVEnivTTCAmM4FR445w9p94nfvoiXmHD7iGWVM0ysgdpXLuTIT1mihAoj18TZ8J2EqVHhdjWO0JhHCzwB6g4vxTvXP0icpjx2Cw8lXpzH1j7AmKf58yO5JFSSFqfqhP5lpb-gXDNNZwUtR4mIz6c-XUVzxWANNXNQt9WoToLjI9x-7YPUrL_W0UVvVA2DsXH7071WgwJ3zRd4Ho8rnE_erOnj_gCD0sMgEoFk8G9vkPijYgM9da567S6JsxGIA0E2JpKVLPTcZakpW4ljhmWW-QzQyvKWp5lVUgoO59VZ6gVERZantixZ4ls-44Ynm6gxgA1tIewMLTOTCJmUKkxGN9ILiFsszWRReuOa6HhmGz2ctsDQdeiQCQ1m1JeaSh3MqGkT7c5sp-NZ-NC_ntv-f_kALXZ7-b2-v3m420FLIE3UtDB2FzXGo0mxB_Q_tvu1j78ByeureQ |
linkToPdf | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwfV1NT-MwELWgSCsuiIVFlAXWB4S4eBs7dmKfELRU5aMVQqDlZvkjliqVplvKYffX7zh1QVz2GEWKopn4vTfO-A1CJwokCKtoIKwUlnAHdYoqlCTeSyMsMIZT8YDzcFQMnvjNs3hO_U-vqa1yhYkNUPvaxT3yDsuVUHHkmuiE1BZx3-ufz36TOEEq_mlN4zTW0QawYsZaaOPyanT_8I7LRcGTd3hs-OI8Gf0Af3aGvx5Ij1BJMk7VT_qZoz5DdMM7_W20lQQjvlhm-Ctaq6Y7qD0ErVvPmy1xfIq7kzEIz-ZqF10-zutZDD3u_nGTelrhgfkL3wFe1Hj49mLNGI-nGHQfBskIlIM_nELSg6pv6Kl_9dgdkDQpgTiQZwsiWWDRgZcVJmS5Y4aVlvkSsMvyzNPSKikFh9XrLPUCaiTLCxsCy33mS254vodaU3ihfYSdoaE0uZB5UHFOupFeQBVjaSmr4I1ro7NVbPRsaYihm0KiFBrCqHuaSh3DqGkbHa5ip9PKeNUfeTz4_-0f6AskWN9dj26_o03QKWrZJXuIWov5W3UEWmBhj1OS_wG53rEV |
openUrl | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info%3Aofi%2Fenc%3AUTF-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsummon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Tropical+Cyclone+Hazard+to+Mumbai+in+the+Recent+Historical+Climate&rft.jtitle=Monthly+weather+review&rft.au=Sobel%2C+Adam+H.&rft.au=Lee%2C+Chia-Ying&rft.au=Camargo%2C+Suzana+J.&rft.au=Mandli%2C+Kyle+T.&rft.date=2019-07-01&rft.issn=0027-0644&rft.eissn=1520-0493&rft.volume=147&rft.issue=7&rft.spage=2355&rft.epage=2366&rft_id=info:doi/10.1175%2FMWR-D-18-0419.1&rft.externalDBID=n%2Fa&rft.externalDocID=10_1175_MWR_D_18_0419_1 |
thumbnail_l | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/lc.gif&issn=0027-0644&client=summon |
thumbnail_m | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/mc.gif&issn=0027-0644&client=summon |
thumbnail_s | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/sc.gif&issn=0027-0644&client=summon |