Including variation in branch and tree properties improves timber grade estimates in Scots pine stands
Deterministic modelling of roundwood quality with expected values of quality factors underestimates the variation in timber grade distribution and leads to sudden transitions of all of the trees in a size class between the quality classes. We constructed a recursive model chain that predicts the hei...
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Published in | Canadian journal of forest research Vol. 48; no. 5; pp. 542 - 553 |
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Main Authors | , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
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Ottawa
NRC Research Press
2018
Canadian Science Publishing NRC Research Press |
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Abstract | Deterministic modelling of roundwood quality with expected values of quality factors underestimates the variation in timber grade distribution and leads to sudden transitions of all of the trees in a size class between the quality classes. We constructed a recursive model chain that predicts the height of the lowest living and dead branches for a set of maximum branch diameters based on stem diameter, tree height, and height of the crown base. By using Monte-Carlo simulation, a timber grade distribution for a stand was integrated over the multidimensional random distribution of the recursive model chain. The results demonstrated that introducing random variation resulted in major changes in the calculated quality distributions. The timber grade distributions were wider compared with the expected value-based predictions. In particular, the proportions of the highest and lowest quality classes were under- or over-estimated in the deterministic predictions. Because of the random variation of tree properties, the timber grade distribution also became more continuous over time. The results also showed that the timber grade distributions can vary considerably between stands with similar stem diameter distributions. Understanding the effects of random quality variation will give guidance to forest managers to reach more profitable management regimes. |
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AbstractList | Deterministic modelling of roundwood quality with expected values of quality factors underestimates the variation in timber grade distribution and leads to sudden transitions of all of the trees in a size class between the quality classes. We constructed a recursive model chain that predicts the height of the lowest living and dead branches for a set of maximum branch diameters based on stem diameter, tree height, and height of the crown base. By using Monte-Carlo simulation, a timber grade distribution for a stand was integrated over the multidimensional random distribution of the recursive model chain. The results demonstrated that introducing random variation resulted in major changes in the calculated quality distributions. The timber grade distributions were wider compared with the expected value-based predictions. In particular, the proportions of the highest and lowest quality classes were under- or over-estimated in the deterministic predictions. Because of the random variation of tree properties, the timber grade distribution also became more continuous over time. The results also showed that the timber grade distributions can vary considerably between stands with similar stem diameter distributions. Understanding the effects of random quality variation will give guidance to forest managers to reach more profitable management regimes. |
Abstract_FL | Fondée sur des valeurs espérées des facteurs de qualité, la modélisation déterministe de la qualité des bois ronds sous-estime la variation dans la distribution des catégories de bois d’œuvre et aboutit à des transitions soudaines entre les classes de qualité de tous les arbres dans une classe de dimension. Nous avons élaboré une chaîne de modèles récurrents capable de prédire la hauteur des plus basses branches vivantes ou mortes pour un ensemble de diamètres maximum des branches sur la base du diamètre du tronc, de la hauteur de l’arbre et de la hauteur de la base de la cime. En utilisant la simulation Monte Carlo, une distribution des catégories de bois d’œuvre dans un peuplement a été intégrée à la distribution aléatoire multidimensionnelle de la chaîne de modèles récurrents. Les résultats démontrent que l’introduction de la variation aléatoire a entraîné des changements majeurs dans les distributions calculées de la qualité. La distribution des catégories de bois d’œuvre était plus large comparativement aux prédictions sur la base des valeurs espérées. En particulier, la proportion des classes de qualité supérieures et inférieures était sous-estimée ou surestimée dans les prédictions déterministes. À cause de la variation aléatoire des propriétés des arbres, la distribution des catégories de bois d’œuvre est aussi devenue plus continue avec le temps. Les résultats montrent aussi que la distribution des catégories de bois d’œuvre peut varier considérablement entre les peuplements qui ont une distribution des diamètres du tronc semblable. La compréhension des effets de la variation aléatoire de la qualité fournira des indications aux aménagistes forestiers pour élaborer des régimes d’aménagement plus profitables. [Traduit par la Rédaction] |
Author | Mäkinen, Harri Heinonen, Jaakko Ojansuu, Risto |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Risto surname: Ojansuu fullname: Ojansuu, Risto organization: Natural Resources Institute Finland, P.O. Box 2, 00791 Helsinki, Finland – sequence: 2 givenname: Harri surname: Mäkinen fullname: Mäkinen, Harri organization: Natural Resources Institute Finland, Tietotie 2,02150 Espoo, Finland – sequence: 3 givenname: Jaakko surname: Heinonen fullname: Heinonen, Jaakko organization: Natural Resources Institute Finland, Yliopistokatu 6, 80100 Joensuu, Finland |
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Snippet | Deterministic modelling of roundwood quality with expected values of quality factors underestimates the variation in timber grade distribution and leads to... |
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SubjectTerms | branchaison Branches branchiness Chain branching Computer simulation Forest management Mathematical analysis Mathematical models Monte Carlo simulation pin sylvestre Pine trees Pinus sylvestris Quality qualité du bois d’œuvre random variation Scots pine simulation Timber timber quality Variation variation aléatoire |
Title | Including variation in branch and tree properties improves timber grade estimates in Scots pine stands |
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