Equatorial Waves Triggering Extreme Rainfall and Floods in Southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia
Abstract On the basis of detailed analysis of a case study and long-term climatology, it is shown that equatorial waves and their interactions serve as precursors for extreme rain and flood events in the central Maritime Continent region of southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia. Meteorological conditions on...
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Published in | Monthly weather review Vol. 149; no. 5; pp. 1381 - 1401 |
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Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
01.05.2021
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Online Access | Get full text |
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Abstract | Abstract
On the basis of detailed analysis of a case study and long-term climatology, it is shown that equatorial waves and their interactions serve as precursors for extreme rain and flood events in the central Maritime Continent region of southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia. Meteorological conditions on 22 January 2019 leading to heavy rainfall and devastating flooding in this area are studied. It is shown that a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) and a convectively coupled equatorial Rossby wave (CCERW) embedded within the larger-scale envelope of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) enhanced convective phase, contributed to the onset of a mesoscale convective system that developed over the Java Sea. Low-level convergence from the CCKW forced mesoscale convective organization and orographic ascent of moist air over the slopes of southwest Sulawesi. Climatological analysis shows that 92% of December–February floods and 76% of extreme rain events in this region were immediately preceded by positive low-level westerly wind anomalies. It is estimated that both CCKWs and CCERWs propagating over Sulawesi double the chance of floods and extreme rain event development, while the probability of such hazardous events occurring during their combined activity is 8 times greater than on a random day. While the MJO is a key component shaping tropical atmospheric variability, it is shown that its usefulness as a single factor for extreme weather-driven hazard prediction is limited. |
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AbstractList | Abstract
On the basis of detailed analysis of a case study and long-term climatology, it is shown that equatorial waves and their interactions serve as precursors for extreme rain and flood events in the central Maritime Continent region of southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia. Meteorological conditions on 22 January 2019 leading to heavy rainfall and devastating flooding in this area are studied. It is shown that a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) and a convectively coupled equatorial Rossby wave (CCERW) embedded within the larger-scale envelope of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) enhanced convective phase, contributed to the onset of a mesoscale convective system that developed over the Java Sea. Low-level convergence from the CCKW forced mesoscale convective organization and orographic ascent of moist air over the slopes of southwest Sulawesi. Climatological analysis shows that 92% of December–February floods and 76% of extreme rain events in this region were immediately preceded by positive low-level westerly wind anomalies. It is estimated that both CCKWs and CCERWs propagating over Sulawesi double the chance of floods and extreme rain event development, while the probability of such hazardous events occurring during their combined activity is 8 times greater than on a random day. While the MJO is a key component shaping tropical atmospheric variability, it is shown that its usefulness as a single factor for extreme weather-driven hazard prediction is limited. |
Author | Matthews, Adrian J. Peyrillé, Philippe Permana, Donaldi S. Latos, Beata Baranowski, Dariusz B. Lefort, Thierry Feng, Zhe Schmidt, Jerome M. Sulystyo, Eko Makmur, Erwin Flatau, Piotr J. Paski, Jaka A. I. Flatau, Maria K. |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Beata surname: Latos fullname: Latos, Beata organization: a Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland – sequence: 2 givenname: Thierry surname: Lefort fullname: Lefort, Thierry organization: b École Nationale de la Météorologie, Météo-France, Toulouse, France – sequence: 3 givenname: Maria K. surname: Flatau fullname: Flatau, Maria K. organization: c Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California – sequence: 4 givenname: Piotr J. surname: Flatau fullname: Flatau, Piotr J. organization: d Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, San Diego, California – sequence: 5 givenname: Donaldi S. surname: Permana fullname: Permana, Donaldi S. organization: e Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics of the Republic of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia – sequence: 6 givenname: Dariusz B. surname: Baranowski fullname: Baranowski, Dariusz B. organization: a Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland – sequence: 7 givenname: Jaka A. I. surname: Paski fullname: Paski, Jaka A. I. organization: e Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics of the Republic of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia – sequence: 8 givenname: Erwin surname: Makmur fullname: Makmur, Erwin organization: e Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics of the Republic of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia – sequence: 9 givenname: Eko surname: Sulystyo fullname: Sulystyo, Eko organization: e Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics of the Republic of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia – sequence: 10 givenname: Philippe surname: Peyrillé fullname: Peyrillé, Philippe organization: f Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo-France, Toulouse, France – sequence: 11 givenname: Zhe surname: Feng fullname: Feng, Zhe organization: g Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington – sequence: 12 givenname: Adrian J. surname: Matthews fullname: Matthews, Adrian J. organization: h Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, and School of Mathematics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom – sequence: 13 givenname: Jerome M. surname: Schmidt fullname: Schmidt, Jerome M. organization: c Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California |
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On the basis of detailed analysis of a case study and long-term climatology, it is shown that equatorial waves and their interactions serve as... |
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