Task information and performance in probabilistic inference tasks
The paper presents four experiments designed to investigate the effect of various forms of instructions about the nature of the task on optimality in single-cue probability learning tasks. The results show that information about the probabilistic nature of the task does not make the subjects adopt s...
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| Published in | Organizational behavior and human performance Vol. 22; no. 3; pp. 445 - 464 |
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| Main Authors | , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Elsevier B.V
01.01.1978
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| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Summary: | The paper presents four experiments designed to investigate the effect of various forms of instructions about the nature of the task on optimality in single-cue probability learning tasks. The results show that information about the probabilistic nature of the task does not make the subjects adopt statistical strategies, and when they are told to use such strategies, their performance does not improve. The results were interpreted to mean that the metaphor of the subject as an intuitive statistician is misleading, for the subjects lack the cognitive capacity needed to implement a statistical strategy. |
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| ISSN: | 0030-5073 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/0030-5073(78)90027-2 |