Cost-effectiveness of semaglutide in people with obesity and cardiovascular disease without diabetes

• Published in: Journal of medical economics Vol. 28; no. 1; pp. 1 - 16
• Main Authors: McEwan, Phil, Bøg, Martin, Faurby, Mads, Foos, Volker, Lingvay, Ildiko, Lübker, Christopher, Miller, Ryan, Toliver, Joshua C., Yeates, Florian, Lincoff, A. Michael
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England 01.12.2025
• Subjects: Aged; Cardiovascular Diseases - complications; Cardiovascular Diseases - drug therapy; Cardiovascular Diseases - prevention & control; Cost-Benefit Analysis; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2; Female; Glucagon-Like Peptide 1; Glucagon-Like Peptides - administration & dosage; Glucagon-Like Peptides - economics; Glucagon-Like Peptides - therapeutic use; Humans; Male; Markov Chains; Middle Aged; Obesity - complications; Obesity - drug therapy; Quality-Adjusted Life Years; I00; Cardiovascular disease; I10; cost-effectiveness analysis; overweight; glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists; obesity
• ISSN: 1369-6998; 1941-837X; 1941-837X
• DOI: 10.1080/13696998.2025.2459529

The cardioprotective effects of semaglutide 2.4 mg reported in the SELECT cardiovascular (CV) outcomes trial (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03574597) provide clinical benefit for subjects with overweight or obesity and established CV disease without type 2 diabetes (T2D). We assessed cost-effectiveness of semaglutide 2.4 mg in this population against the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association value framework. A cohort-level Markov-state cost-effectiveness model using trial-derived data with outcomes from a healthcare sector perspective measured over a lifetime horizon was developed. Treatment costs were based on US list prices; scenario analyses used literature-reported estimated rebates. Healthcare costs and benefits were discounted at 3.0%. A simulated cohort of 100,000 subjects was aligned to the SELECT trial population baseline characteristics and time-on-treatment. Subjects received either semaglutide 2.4 mg or placebo in addition to standard of care (SoC). Modelled outcomes included clinical events (CV events, progression to T2D, chronic kidney disease [CKD]) and health economic measures, including direct costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Mean semaglutide 2.4 mg treatment duration was 2.79 years. Per 100,000 subjects, treatment avoided 2,791 non-fatal myocardial infarctions, 3,000 coronary revascularizations, 487 non-fatal strokes, and 115 CV deaths over the modeled lifetime horizon. Average per-subject lifetime treatment costs were $47,353; savings arose from avoided T2D ($14,431), CKD ($2,074), and CV events ($1,512). Semaglutide 2.4 mg was associated with increased lifetime costs ($29,767), additional QALYs gained (0.218) and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $136,271/QALY at list price; a scenario using an empirically estimated 48% rebate predicted $32,219/QALY. The generalizability of observations from SELECT to a broader US population is unknown. Our model does not capture all outcomes nor costs that may be affected by weight loss. Modeling assumptions may present limitations. Semaglutide 2.4 mg use as in SELECT is cost-effective at list price, using a $150,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold.