QBO/solar modulation of the boreal winter Madden‐Julian oscillation: A prediction for the coming solar minimum

• Published in: Geophysical research letters Vol. 44; no. 8; pp. 3849 - 3857
• Main Author: Hood, Lon L.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington John Wiley & Sons, Inc 28.04.2017
• Subjects: Amplitudes; Circulation; Climate; Climate effects; Climate science; Lower stratosphere; Madden-Julian oscillation; Meridional circulation; Modulation; Oscillations; Quasi-biennial oscillation; Rainfall; Seasonal comparisons; Solar cycle; Solar maximum; Solar oscillations; Static stability; Stratosphere; Tropical environments; Tropical meteorology; Upwelling; Weather forecasting; Winter; United States > US
• DOI: 10.1002/2017GL072832
• ISSN: 0094-8276

Abstract The Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO), also known as the 30–60 day oscillation, is the strongest of the intraseasonal climate oscillations in the tropics and has significant derivative effects on extratropical circulation and intraseasonal climate. It has recently been shown that the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the amplitude of the boreal winter MJO such that MJO amplitudes are larger on average during the easterly phase (QBOE) than during the westerly phase (QBOW). A major possible mechanism is the decrease in static stability in the lowermost stratosphere under QBOE conditions resulting from relative upwelling associated with the QBO‐induced meridional circulation. Here evidence is presented that tropical upwelling changes related to the 11 year solar cycle also modulate the boreal winter MJO. Based on 37.3 years of MJO amplitude data, the largest amplitudes and occurrence rates, and the weakest static stabilities in the tropical lower stratosphere, occur during the QBOE phase under solar minimum (SMIN) conditions while the smallest amplitudes and strongest static stabilities occur during the QBOW phase under solar maximum (SMAX) conditions. Conversely, when the QBO and solar forcings are opposed (QBOW/SMIN and QBOE/SMAX), the difference in occurrence rates becomes statistically insignificant. During the coming solar minimum, at least one additional winter in the QBOE/SMIN category should occur (possibly as early as 2017/2018) during which especially large MJO amplitudes are expected and an initial test of these results will be possible. Key Points Largest (smallest) MJO amplitudes and occurrence rates are found under QBOE/SMIN (QBOW/SMAX) conditions in northern winter When the QBO and solar forcings are opposed (QBOW/SMIN and QBOE/SMAX), the difference in amplitudes/occurrence rates becomes insignificant During the coming solar minimum, at least one winter in the QBOE/SMIN category should occur, providing an initial test of these results Plain Language Summary An ongoing issue in climate science is the extent to which upper atmospheric processes, including solar forcing, can influence tropospheric climate. It has recently been shown that an internal oscillation of the stratosphere, the quasi‐biennial oscillation, can modulate the amplitude and occurrence rate of intraseasonal climate oscillations in the tropical Pacific during northern winter. These intraseasonal oscillations, the most important of which is the 30–60 day Madden‐Julian oscillation, have significant derivative effects on climate outside of the tropics, including impacts on rainfall events over the continental United States. Here evidence is presented that the amplitude of the Madden‐Julian oscillation during northern winter is also modulated by the 11 year solar cycle. The modulation is such that amplitudes and occurrence rates are largest under solar minimum conditions when the quasi‐biennial oscillation is in its easterly phase and smallest under solar maximum conditions when the quasi‐biennial oscillation is in its westerly phase. However, the available time record (37.3 years of satellite measurements) is limited. During the coming solar minimum, at least one additional winter in the solar minimum/easterly category should occur (possibly as early as 2017/2018) during which larger‐than‐average amplitudes are expected and an initial test of the proposed relationship will be possible.