A performance-based ballistic design framework for RC panels and a probabilistic model for crater quantification

• Published in: Reliability engineering & system safety Vol. 252; p. 110472
• Main Authors: Dar, Roouf Un Nabi, Alagappan, P.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.12.2024
• Subjects: Bayesian; Concrete; Crater; FEM; Impact; Projectile; Impact; Concrete; Crater; Bayesian; Projectile; FEM
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110472
• ISSN: 0951-8320

Ballistic design is crucial for widely utilised concrete structures in today’s unpredictable world. In the past, extensive experimental and numerical studies have investigated concrete panels, resulting in design guidelines and empirical formulations for local damage parameters. However, with the advent of performance-based design, notably in seismic design, the ballistic design of concrete structures lacks a comprehensive design philosophy. Additionally, deterministic empirical formulations for local damage parameters, particularly in the case of reinforced concrete (RC) panels’ crater formation, necessitate a probabilistic treatment. Consequently, this paper addresses the need for a well-defined ballistic design philosophy for concrete structures and introduces a probabilistic approach for crater quantification. Firstly, a novel multi-level and multi-parameter performance-based design framework for RC panels is proposed, centred on damage states, namely depth of penetration and crater area. This framework establishes an innovative design philosophy featuring four damage levels for each state. Secondly, using dimensionless explanatory functions, a Bayesian inference model is developed to estimate the crater diameter in RC panels under hard projectile impact, accounting for the associated uncertainties. LS-Dyna is used for numerical modelling of RC panels and rigid projectiles. The numerical models are validated with the experimental data and are utilised to develop the probabilistic model. This study reveals the profound influence of projectile and concrete properties in addition to the incidence angle of the projectile on crater formation. The developed probabilistic model is validated with experimental results demonstrating its reliability and accuracy. Consequently, a reliable design formula for estimating crater diameter for RC panels under hard projectile impact is proposed in addition to the novel ballistic design framework. [Display omitted] •A novel performance-based ballistic design framework for RC panels is proposed.•A probabilistic model based on Bayesian inference is developed to estimate the crater diameter.•Both projectile and concrete properties influence the crater formation in RC panels.•The developed probabilistic model is validated with experimental results demonstrating its reliability and accuracy.