Hazard-based duration analysis of the time between motorcyclists’ initial training and their first crash

• Published in: Analytic methods in accident research Vol. 28; p. 100143
• Main Authors: Balusu, Suryaprasanna Kumar, Mannering, Fred, Pinjari, Abdul
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.12.2020
• Subjects: Gender differences; Hazard models; Motorcycle crashes; Motorcycle training; Random parameters; Gender differences; Hazard models; Motorcycle crashes; Random parameters; Motorcycle training
• ISSN: 2213-6657; 2213-6657
• DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2020.100143

•Motorcyclist crash histories are followed for a five-year period after initial training.•Hazard-based duration models are estimated with unobserved heterogeneity considered.•Gender and age are critical determinants of the duration until motorcyclists’ first crash.•The nature of high crash likelihoods immediately after initial training is quantified. The high fatality rates of motorcyclists relative to other motorized forms of highway transportation has been a focus of engineers and safety policies for many years. One of the most popular approaches to improve motorcycle safety has been to design training courses to improve riding competence. However, the effectiveness of these courses and the initial crash risk of motorcyclists is not well understood. The current study seeks to provide insight into motorcyclists’ initial crash risk by following the crash history of newly trained motorcyclists for up to 5 years after they complete their required motorcycle training. Specifically, attention is focused on the time until motorcyclists’ first crash. Using data from over 40,000 Florida motorcyclists, Weibull hazard-based duration models are estimated with gamma heterogeneity, and full random parameters, to determine the factors that affect the duration until motorcyclists’ first crash. The estimation results show that age and gender are driving factors in determining this duration and ultimately crash risk. In addition, estimation results show that most gender-age groups have an initial period of increasing crash risk, ranging from 30 to 96 days, where the likelihood of a crash increases the longer motorcyclists go without having a crash. After this initial period, crash risk declines over time as increasing riding experience reduces overall risk. This particular finding points to a critical motorcycle-safety opportunity in that policies and/or training can be modified to attempt to eliminate this initial high-risk period to arrive at a desirable lower initial risk and a declining risk over time as experience makes for safer and more cautious riding.