A System Dynamics Model of Urban Rainstorm and Flood Resilience to Achieve the Sustainable Development Goals

•The urban flood resilience framework was established using SDGs as a guideline.•A system dynamics model used to develop urban flood resilience.•Sensitive factors affecting flood resilience in rainstorm scenarios were identified.•Six policy scenarios were set to find the drivers of flood resilience...

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Published inSustainable cities and society Vol. 96; p. 104631
Main Authors Li, Wen, Jiang, Rengui, Wu, Hao, Xie, Jiancang, Zhao, Yong, Song, Yingxue, Li, Fawen
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Elsevier Ltd 01.09.2023
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Abstract •The urban flood resilience framework was established using SDGs as a guideline.•A system dynamics model used to develop urban flood resilience.•Sensitive factors affecting flood resilience in rainstorm scenarios were identified.•Six policy scenarios were set to find the drivers of flood resilience in urban systems.•The results showed that the growth of flood resilience experienced three phases by 2035. The combined effects of climate change and accelerated urbanization have increased the risk of urban rainstorm and flood disasters, which seriously affects the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in cities. Improving urban flood resilience is one of main ways to deal with flooding. This study established an urban rainstorm and flood resilience model to sort out the behavioral mechanisms of multiple subjects (government, flood control department, residents and media) and the internal action mechanisms from different dimensions (economic, social, natural, infrastructure and information) of urban rainstorm and flood resilience using system dynamics approach, and to investigate the urban rainstorm and flood resilience in Xi'an city. The results show that the damage losses rate reduced by 44.44%, 10.8%, 9.48% and 3.37% by improving flood resilience, resident engagement, government attention degree and information construction level, respectively. The degree of improvement of urban rainstorm and flood resilience varied for six development scenarios when predict flood resilience. The development pattern can be divided into the beginning phase, preparation phase and development phase, and three improvement strategies are proposed based on the development pattern of flood resilience. This study helps to provide refined strategies for urban rainstorm and flood resilience assessment construction.
AbstractList •The urban flood resilience framework was established using SDGs as a guideline.•A system dynamics model used to develop urban flood resilience.•Sensitive factors affecting flood resilience in rainstorm scenarios were identified.•Six policy scenarios were set to find the drivers of flood resilience in urban systems.•The results showed that the growth of flood resilience experienced three phases by 2035. The combined effects of climate change and accelerated urbanization have increased the risk of urban rainstorm and flood disasters, which seriously affects the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in cities. Improving urban flood resilience is one of main ways to deal with flooding. This study established an urban rainstorm and flood resilience model to sort out the behavioral mechanisms of multiple subjects (government, flood control department, residents and media) and the internal action mechanisms from different dimensions (economic, social, natural, infrastructure and information) of urban rainstorm and flood resilience using system dynamics approach, and to investigate the urban rainstorm and flood resilience in Xi'an city. The results show that the damage losses rate reduced by 44.44%, 10.8%, 9.48% and 3.37% by improving flood resilience, resident engagement, government attention degree and information construction level, respectively. The degree of improvement of urban rainstorm and flood resilience varied for six development scenarios when predict flood resilience. The development pattern can be divided into the beginning phase, preparation phase and development phase, and three improvement strategies are proposed based on the development pattern of flood resilience. This study helps to provide refined strategies for urban rainstorm and flood resilience assessment construction.
ArticleNumber 104631
Author Wu, Hao
Song, Yingxue
Li, Fawen
Jiang, Rengui
Zhao, Yong
Li, Wen
Xie, Jiancang
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  surname: Li
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  organization: State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an, 710048, China
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  givenname: Rengui
  surname: Jiang
  fullname: Jiang, Rengui
  email: jrengui@163.com
  organization: State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an, 710048, China
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  givenname: Hao
  surname: Wu
  fullname: Wu, Hao
  organization: School of Economics and Management, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an, 710054, China
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  givenname: Jiancang
  surname: Xie
  fullname: Xie, Jiancang
  organization: State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an, 710048, China
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  givenname: Yong
  surname: Zhao
  fullname: Zhao, Yong
  organization: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China
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  givenname: Yingxue
  surname: Song
  fullname: Song, Yingxue
  organization: State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an, 710048, China
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  givenname: Fawen
  surname: Li
  fullname: Li, Fawen
  organization: State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China
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Keywords SD
GDP
System dynamics model
Rainstorm and flood resilience assessment
SDGs
Sustainable Development Goals
SDM
Rainstorm scenarios
MAS
Urban rainstorm and flood disasters
CNY
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Snippet •The urban flood resilience framework was established using SDGs as a guideline.•A system dynamics model used to develop urban flood resilience.•Sensitive...
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StartPage 104631
SubjectTerms Rainstorm and flood resilience assessment
Rainstorm scenarios
Sustainable Development Goals
System dynamics model
Urban rainstorm and flood disasters
Title A System Dynamics Model of Urban Rainstorm and Flood Resilience to Achieve the Sustainable Development Goals
URI https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2023.104631
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