Accounting for long-term doses in “worldwide health effects of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident”
Radiocesium isotopes have been known to dominate projections for extra cancers expected years after a release of radioactivity from a severely damaged reactor. Presumably, the same will be true for the cancer consequences from the Fukushima nuclear accident of March 2011, but long-term doses from ra...
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Published in | Energy & environmental science Vol. 6; no. 3; pp. 1042 - 1045 |
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Main Authors | , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
01.03.2013
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Subjects | |
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Abstract | Radiocesium isotopes have been known to dominate projections for extra cancers expected years after a release of radioactivity from a severely damaged reactor. Presumably, the same will be true for the cancer consequences from the Fukushima nuclear accident of March 2011, but long-term doses from radiocesium in the environment were not considered in an estimate by Ten Hoeve and Jacobson (TH&J). (The purpose of their article was to evaluate the contention that the accident would have no health effects.) As a result, the projection by TH&J of 125 future cancer-related mortalities worldwide (range 15 to 1100) appears to be an underestimate. Some other factors in their calculation tended to overestimate consequences. On balance, the net result of adjusting the TH&J numbers to account for long-term dose from radiocesium is uncertain, but the mid-range estimate for the number of future mortalities is probably closer to 1000 than to 125. |
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AbstractList | Radiocesium isotopes have been known to dominate projections for extra cancers expected years after a release of radioactivity from a severely damaged reactor. Presumably, the same will be true for the cancer consequences from the Fukushima nuclear accident of March 2011, but long-term doses from radiocesium in the environment were not considered in an estimate by Ten Hoeve and Jacobson (TH&J). (The purpose of their article was to evaluate the contention that the accident would have no health effects.) As a result, the projection by TH&J of 125 future cancer-related mortalities worldwide (range 15 to 1100) appears to be an underestimate. Some other factors in their calculation tended to overestimate consequences. On balance, the net result of adjusting the TH&J numbers to account for long-term dose from radiocesium is uncertain, but the mid-range estimate for the number of future mortalities is probably closer to 1000 than to 125. |
Author | Beyea, Jan Lyman, Edwin von Hippel, Frank N |
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References | Lewis (c2ee24183h-(cit1)/*[position()=1]) 1975; 47 Ten Hoeve (c2ee24183h-(cit5)/*[position()=1]) 2012; 5 Beyea (c2ee24183h-(cit13)/*[position()=1]) 2004; 12 Likhtarev (c2ee24183h-(cit11)/*[position()=1]) 2002; 82 Anspaugh (c2ee24183h-(cit3)/*[position()=1]) 1988; 242 Hamada (c2ee24183h-(cit17)/*[position()=1]) 2012; 111 Beyea (c2ee24183h-(cit19)/*[position()=1]) 2012; 68 Iimoto (c2ee24183h-(cit14)/*[position()=1]) 2012; 152 Drozdovitch (c2ee24183h-(cit8)/*[position()=1]) 2007; 123 Kasperson (c2ee24183h-(cit21)/*[position()=1]) 2012; 68 Greenland (c2ee24183h-(cit20)/*[position()=1]) 2012; 68 Golikov (c2ee24183h-(cit9)/*[position()=1]) 2002; 41 Richter (c2ee24183h-(cit18)/*[position()=1]) 2012; 5 Taira (c2ee24183h-(cit7)/*[position()=1]) 2012; 151 |
References_xml | – volume: 41 start-page: 185 year: 2002 ident: c2ee24183h-(cit9)/*[position()=1] publication-title: Radiat. Environ. Biophys. doi: 10.1007/s00411-002-0167-2 contributor: fullname: Golikov – volume: 82 start-page: 290 year: 2002 ident: c2ee24183h-(cit11)/*[position()=1] publication-title: Health Phys. doi: 10.1097/00004032-200203000-00002 contributor: fullname: Likhtarev – volume: 68 start-page: 76 year: 2012 ident: c2ee24183h-(cit20)/*[position()=1] publication-title: Bull. At. Sci. doi: 10.1177/0096340212444873 contributor: fullname: Greenland – volume: 152 start-page: 210 year: 2012 ident: c2ee24183h-(cit14)/*[position()=1] publication-title: Radiat. Prot. Dosim. doi: 10.1093/rpd/ncs224 contributor: fullname: Iimoto – volume: 111 start-page: 83 year: 2012 ident: c2ee24183h-(cit17)/*[position()=1] publication-title: J. Environ. Radioact. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2011.08.008 contributor: fullname: Hamada – volume: 12 start-page: 125 year: 2004 ident: c2ee24183h-(cit13)/*[position()=1] publication-title: Sci. Global Secur. doi: 10.1080/08929880490464775 contributor: fullname: Beyea – volume: 151 start-page: 537 year: 2012 ident: c2ee24183h-(cit7)/*[position()=1] publication-title: Radiat. Prot. Dosim. doi: 10.1093/rpd/ncs040 contributor: fullname: Taira – volume: 5 start-page: 8743 year: 2012 ident: c2ee24183h-(cit5)/*[position()=1] publication-title: Energy Environ. Sci. doi: 10.1039/c2ee22019a contributor: fullname: Ten Hoeve – volume: 68 start-page: 59 year: 2012 ident: c2ee24183h-(cit21)/*[position()=1] publication-title: Bull. At. Sci. doi: 10.1177/0096340212444871 contributor: fullname: Kasperson – volume: 242 start-page: 1513 year: 1988 ident: c2ee24183h-(cit3)/*[position()=1] publication-title: Science doi: 10.1126/science.3201240 contributor: fullname: Anspaugh – volume: 47 start-page: S1 year: 1975 ident: c2ee24183h-(cit1)/*[position()=1] publication-title: Rev. Mod. Phys. doi: 10.1103/RevModPhys.47.S1 contributor: fullname: Lewis – volume: 5 start-page: 8758 year: 2012 ident: c2ee24183h-(cit18)/*[position()=1] publication-title: Energy Environ. Sci. doi: 10.1039/c2ee22658h contributor: fullname: Richter – volume: 123 start-page: 515 year: 2007 ident: c2ee24183h-(cit8)/*[position()=1] publication-title: Radiat. Prot. Dosim. doi: 10.1093/rpd/ncl528 contributor: fullname: Drozdovitch – volume: 68 start-page: 13 year: 2012 ident: c2ee24183h-(cit19)/*[position()=1] publication-title: Bull. At. Sci. doi: 10.1177/0096340212445025 contributor: fullname: Beyea |
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Title | Accounting for long-term doses in “worldwide health effects of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident” |
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