Understanding the Intermittency of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble

• Published in: Geophysical research letters Vol. 51; no. 15
• Main Authors: Baker, L. H., Shaffrey, L. C., Johnson, S. J., Weisheimer, A.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington John Wiley & Sons, Inc 16.08.2024; Wiley
• Subjects: Atmospheric forcing; Atmospheric variability; East Atlantic Pattern; El Nino; El Nino phenomena; El Nino-Southern Oscillation event; forecast skill; Forecasting models; Forecasting skill; Intermittency; North Atlantic; North Atlantic Oscillation; Ocean-atmosphere system; predictability; Seasonal forecasting; Seasonal variations; Southern Oscillation; Variability; Weather; Weather forecasting; Winter; Winter weather
• ISSN: 0094-8276; 1944-8007
• DOI: 10.1029/2024GL108472

The wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Pattern (EA) are the two leading modes of North Atlantic pressure variability and have a substantial impact on winter weather in Europe. The year‐to‐year contributions to multi‐model seasonal forecast skill in the Copernicus C3S ensemble of seven prediction systems are assessed for the wintertime NAO and EA, and well‐forecast and poorly‐forecast years are identified. Years with high NAO predictability are associated with substantial tropical forcing, generally from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while poor forecasts of the NAO occur when ENSO forcing is weak. Well‐forecast EA winters also generally occurred when there was substantial tropical forcing, although the relationship was less robust than for the NAO. These results support previous findings of the impacts of tropical forcing on the North Atlantic and show this is important from a multi‐model seasonal forecasting perspective. Plain Language Summary The wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Pattern (EA) are two important indicators of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic. They can have a substantial impact on European winter weather. The ability of seasonal forecast models to forecast the NAO and EA varies from year to year. This intermittency of forecast skill is investigated in seven different seasonal forecast systems from the Copernicus C3S database, by focusing on the most well‐forecast and poorly‐forecast years. Years where the NAO is well‐forecast are associated with substantial tropical forcing, generally from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while poor forecasts of the NAO occur when ENSO forcing is weak. Similar but weaker results hold for the EA. These results are valuable for increasing the usability of seasonal forecasts by identifying conditions under which forecasts are more likely to be skillful. Key Points Seasonal forecast skill of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Pattern (EA) is intermittent Well‐forecast NAO/EA winters generally occur when there is substantial tropical forcing