A Method to Estimate URT Passenger Spatial-Temporal Trajectory with Smart Card Data and Train Schedules

• Published in: Sustainability Vol. 12; no. 6; p. 2574
• Main Authors: Yang, Taoyuan, Zhao, Peng, Yao, Xiangming
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 24.03.2020
• Subjects: Behavior; Datasets; Egress; Expected utility; Methods; Passengers; Researchers; Route choice; Route selection; Schedules; Security management; Smart cards; Statistical analysis; Sustainability; Trajectory analysis; Travel; Urban rail
• DOI: 10.3390/su12062574
• ISSN: 2071-1050

Precise estimation of passenger spatial-temporal trajectory is the basis for urban rail transit (URT) passenger flow assignment and ticket fare clearing. Inspired by the correlation between passenger tap-in/out time and train schedules, we present a method to estimate URT passenger spatial-temporal trajectory. First, we classify passengers into four types according to the number of their routes and transfers. Subsequently, based on the characteristic that passengers tap-out in batches at each station, the K-means algorithm is used to assign passengers to trains. Then, we acquire passenger access, egress, and transfer time distribution, which are used to give a probability estimation of passenger trajectories. Finally, in a multi-route case of the Beijing Subway, this method presents an estimation result with 91.2% of the passengers choosing the same route in two consecutive days, and the difference of route choice ratio in these two days is 3.8%. Our method has high accuracy and provides a new method for passenger microcosmic behavior research.