Probabilistic risk assessment for reinforced concrete frame structures subject to mainshock‐aftershock sequences
Recent earthquakes have highlighted that aftershocks can considerably increase the structural demand and seismic risk of engineering structures. This study presents a probabilistic approach to assess the seismic risk of reinforced concrete (RC) frame structures subjected to mainshock‐aftershock sequ...
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| Published in | Earthquake engineering & structural dynamics Vol. 53; no. 7; pp. 2405 - 2422 |
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| Main Authors | , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Bognor Regis
Wiley Subscription Services, Inc
01.06.2024
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| Abstract | Recent earthquakes have highlighted that aftershocks can considerably increase the structural demand and seismic risk of engineering structures. This study presents a probabilistic approach to assess the seismic risk of reinforced concrete (RC) frame structures subjected to mainshock‐aftershock sequences. In this approach, a predictive fragility method is used to evaluate the probabilities of structural damage under sequential excitations. The Bayes theorem is employed to generate posterior distributions of unknown model parameters. Then, a practical seismic hazard assessment method is used to conduct mainshock‐aftershock hazard analysis. The Copula technique is employed to develop a joint distribution model of the mainshock and aftershock intensity measures. Finally, the seismic risk is evaluated using the classical risk integration equation with the mainshock‐aftershock fragilities and hazard surfaces. Confidence bounds for fragilities and seismic risks are also obtained to account for the uncertainties of model parameters caused by aftershocks. The proposed approach is demonstrated by considering a seismic‐designed RC frame building. It can be concluded that aftershocks can significantly increase the seismic risk throughout the entire structural service life. The additional uncertainties caused by aftershocks result in wider confidence bounds for seismic risk. |
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| AbstractList | Recent earthquakes have highlighted that aftershocks can considerably increase the structural demand and seismic risk of engineering structures. This study presents a probabilistic approach to assess the seismic risk of reinforced concrete (RC) frame structures subjected to mainshock‐aftershock sequences. In this approach, a predictive fragility method is used to evaluate the probabilities of structural damage under sequential excitations. The Bayes theorem is employed to generate posterior distributions of unknown model parameters. Then, a practical seismic hazard assessment method is used to conduct mainshock‐aftershock hazard analysis. The Copula technique is employed to develop a joint distribution model of the mainshock and aftershock intensity measures. Finally, the seismic risk is evaluated using the classical risk integration equation with the mainshock‐aftershock fragilities and hazard surfaces. Confidence bounds for fragilities and seismic risks are also obtained to account for the uncertainties of model parameters caused by aftershocks. The proposed approach is demonstrated by considering a seismic‐designed RC frame building. It can be concluded that aftershocks can significantly increase the seismic risk throughout the entire structural service life. The additional uncertainties caused by aftershocks result in wider confidence bounds for seismic risk. |
| Author | Gardoni, Paolo Han, Miao Zhou, Zhou Yu, Xiaohui Lu, Dagang |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Zhou orcidid: 0000-0002-4148-8335 surname: Zhou fullname: Zhou, Zhou organization: Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture – sequence: 2 givenname: Dagang surname: Lu fullname: Lu, Dagang email: ludagang@hit.edu.cn organization: Harbin Institute of Technology – sequence: 3 givenname: Paolo surname: Gardoni fullname: Gardoni, Paolo organization: University of Illinois – sequence: 4 givenname: Miao surname: Han fullname: Han, Miao organization: Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture – sequence: 5 givenname: Xiaohui surname: Yu fullname: Yu, Xiaohui organization: Guilin University of Technology |
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| Snippet | Recent earthquakes have highlighted that aftershocks can considerably increase the structural demand and seismic risk of engineering structures. This study... |
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| SubjectTerms | Aftershocks Bayes Theorem confidence bounds Earthquake damage Earthquakes Evaluation Fragility Frame structures Geological hazards Hazard assessment mainshock‐aftershock Mathematical models Parameters Probabilistic risk assessment Reinforced concrete reinforced concrete buildings Risk assessment Seismic activity Seismic hazard seismic risk assessment Service life Structural damage Structures Uncertainty |
| Title | Probabilistic risk assessment for reinforced concrete frame structures subject to mainshock‐aftershock sequences |
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