Uncommon knowledge of a common phenomenon: intuitions and statistical thinking about gender birth ratio
The phenomenon of birth of a baby is a common and familiar one, and yet college students participating in a general biology class did not possess the expected common knowledge of the equal probability of gender births. We found that these students held strikingly skewed conceptions regarding gender...
Saved in:
Published in | International journal of mathematical education in science and technology Vol. 44; no. 1; pp. 59 - 69 |
---|---|
Main Authors | , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
London
Taylor & Francis Group
01.01.2013
Taylor & Francis Ltd |
Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
Cover
Loading…
Abstract | The phenomenon of birth of a baby is a common and familiar one, and yet college students participating in a general biology class did not possess the expected common knowledge of the equal probability of gender births. We found that these students held strikingly skewed conceptions regarding gender birth ratio, estimating the number of female births to be more than twice the number of male births. Possible sources of these beliefs were analysed, showing flaws in statistical thinking such as viewing small unplanned samples as representing the whole population and making inferences from an inappropriate population. Some educational implications are discussed and a short teaching example (using data assembly) demonstrates an instructional direction that might facilitate conceptual change. |
---|---|
AbstractList | The phenomenon of birth of a baby is a common and familiar one, and yet college students participating in a general biology class did not possess the expected common knowledge of the equal probability of gender births. We found that these students held strikingly skewed conceptions regarding gender birth ratio, estimating the number of female births to be more than twice the number of male births. Possible sources of these beliefs were analysed, showing flaws in statistical thinking such as viewing small unplanned samples as representing the whole population and making inferences from an inappropriate population. Some educational implications are discussed and a short teaching example (using data assembly) demonstrates an instructional direction that might facilitate conceptual change. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT] The phenomenon of birth of a baby is a common and familiar one, and yet college students participating in a general biology class did not possess the expected common knowledge of the equal probability of gender births. We found that these students held strikingly skewed conceptions regarding gender birth ratio, estimating the number of female births to be more than twice the number of male births. Possible sources of these beliefs were analysed, showing flaws in statistical thinking such as viewing small unplanned samples as representing the whole population and making inferences from an inappropriate population. Some educational implications are discussed and a short teaching example (using data assembly) demonstrates an instructional direction that might facilitate conceptual change. |
Author | Peled, Jonathan U. Peled, Ofra N. Peled, Irit |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Ofra N. surname: Peled fullname: Peled, Ofra N. organization: Department of Natural Science , National-Louis University – sequence: 2 givenname: Irit surname: Peled fullname: Peled, Irit email: ipeled@edu.haifa.ac.il organization: Department of Mathematics Education , University of Haifa – sequence: 3 givenname: Jonathan U. surname: Peled fullname: Peled, Jonathan U. organization: Department of Internal Medicine , Massachusetts General Hospital |
BookMark | eNp9kE1LAzEQhoNUsK3-Aw8Bz1sn2eyXF5HiFxS8WPAWsruTNu1uUpOU0n_vlurVwzAwPO878EzIyDqLhNwymDEo4R6AQ5FWXzMOjM_yCsqqvCBjJnKRZJyxERmfkOTEXJFJCBsAYEJUY7Ja2sb1vbN0a92hw3aF1Gmq6O91t0br-mHsAzU27k00zgaqbEtDVNGEaBrV0bg2dmvsiqra7SNdoW3R09r4uKZ-wNw1udSqC3jzu6dk-fL8OX9LFh-v7_OnRdLwUsSkyCvFEVqWZoicY1vnZV6LNK3yrCi00pkuFU-xRNYWmWoAsAbeAGpWt5Dn6ZTcnXt33n3vMUS5cXtvh5eScTH4EUWZDZQ4U413IXjUcudNr_xRMpAnpfJPqTwplWelQ-zxHDNWO9-rg_NdK6M6ds5rr2xjgkz_bfgBRf-BEA |
CODEN | IJMEBM |
Cites_doi | 10.2307/2975286 10.1038/scientificamerican0404-33 10.1007/1-4020-2278-6_2 10.1037/h0031322 10.1080/09332480.2001.10542293 10.52041/serj.v4i2.513 10.1017/CBO9780511809477.002 10.1111/j.1751-5823.1999.tb00442.x 10.1007/s10649-006-4833-1 10.1177/147470490400200112 10.5962/bhl.title.27468 10.1017/CBO9780511808098.004 10.1080/14926150902908776 10.1080/10986065.2011.538295 10.1037/0012-1649.33.1.92 10.1080/10986065.2011.538294 10.1525/maq.2004.18.4.405 |
ContentType | Journal Article |
Copyright | Copyright Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC |
Copyright_xml | – notice: Copyright Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 2013 – notice: Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC |
DBID | AAYXX CITATION |
DOI | 10.1080/0020739X.2012.690898 |
DatabaseName | CrossRef |
DatabaseTitle | CrossRef |
DatabaseTitleList | |
DeliveryMethod | fulltext_linktorsrc |
Discipline | Mathematics |
EISSN | 1464-5211 |
EndPage | 69 |
ExternalDocumentID | 2847666731 10_1080_0020739X_2012_690898 690898 |
Genre | Original Articles Feature |
GroupedDBID | -~X .7F .DC .GO .QJ 0BK 0R~ 186 29J 30N 4.4 5GY 5VS 85S AAAVI AAENE AAJMT AALDU AAMIU AAPUL AAQRR ABBKH ABCCY ABFIM ABHAV ABJVF ABLIJ ABPEM ABPPZ ABPTK ABQHQ ABTAI ABXUL ACGEJ ACGFS ACIWK ACTIO ADCVX ADGTB ADMHC ADXPE AEGYZ AEISY AEOZL AEPSL AEYOC AFKVX AFOLD AFWLO AGDLA AGMYJ AHDLD AIJEM AIRXU AJWEG AKBVH AKOOK ALMA_UNASSIGNED_HOLDINGS ALQZU AQRUH AVBZW AWYRJ BLEHA CCCUG CE4 CS3 D0L DGEBU DKSSO EBS EJD E~A E~B FUNRP FVPDL GTTXZ H13 HF~ HZ~ H~P IPNFZ J.P KYCEM M4Z NA5 NY~ O9- P2P PQEST PQQKQ RIG RNANH ROSJB RTWRZ S-T S10 SNACF TEJ TFL TFT TFW TTHFI TWF UT5 UU3 V1K WH7 ZGOLN ~S~ AAHSB AAYXX ABJNI ABPAQ ABXYU AHDZW CITATION TBQAZ TDBHL TUROJ |
ID | FETCH-LOGICAL-c284t-769a2e0d135ee22edb686b43396577faf5f8a23e8e1d75ac00eb02c0ef1bd0663 |
ISSN | 0020-739X |
IngestDate | Thu Oct 10 19:59:49 EDT 2024 Fri Aug 23 02:50:59 EDT 2024 Tue Jun 13 19:34:35 EDT 2023 |
IsPeerReviewed | true |
IsScholarly | true |
Issue | 1 |
Language | English |
LinkModel | OpenURL |
MergedId | FETCHMERGED-LOGICAL-c284t-769a2e0d135ee22edb686b43396577faf5f8a23e8e1d75ac00eb02c0ef1bd0663 |
PQID | 1242014785 |
PQPubID | 176146 |
PageCount | 11 |
ParticipantIDs | proquest_journals_1242014785 crossref_primary_10_1080_0020739X_2012_690898 informaworld_taylorfrancis_310_1080_0020739X_2012_690898 |
PublicationCentury | 2000 |
PublicationDate | 2013-01-01 |
PublicationDateYYYYMMDD | 2013-01-01 |
PublicationDate_xml | – month: 01 year: 2013 text: 2013-01-01 day: 01 |
PublicationDecade | 2010 |
PublicationPlace | London |
PublicationPlace_xml | – name: London |
PublicationTitle | International journal of mathematical education in science and technology |
PublicationYear | 2013 |
Publisher | Taylor & Francis Group Taylor & Francis Ltd |
Publisher_xml | – name: Taylor & Francis Group – name: Taylor & Francis Ltd |
References | Peled I (CIT0008) 2011 CIT0030 Fisher RA (CIT0013) 1930 Rodgers JL (CIT0012) 2001; 14 Kahneman D (CIT0010) 2002 Gravemeijer K (CIT0027) 1997 Kruger D (CIT0017) 2004; 2 Groth RE (CIT0011) 2005; 4 Tversky A (CIT0003) 1982 Gwin P (CIT0023) 2007; 211 CIT0019 CIT0021 CIT0022 Kahneman D (CIT0002) 2003 Pfannkuch M (CIT0001) 2004 Peled I (CIT0006) 2009; 9 Bramlett MD (CIT0020) 2002; 23 Gardner H (CIT0025) 1999 Fischbein E (CIT0004) 1987 Graunt J (CIT0014) 1662 CIT0024 CIT0005 CIT0026 CIT0007 CIT0029 CIT0028 CIT0009 Guttentag M (CIT0018) 1983 |
References_xml | – ident: CIT0028 doi: 10.2307/2975286 – start-page: 416 volume-title: Les Prix Nobel year: 2003 ident: CIT0002 contributor: fullname: Kahneman D – volume-title: Too Many Women?: The Sex Ratio Question year: 1983 ident: CIT0018 contributor: fullname: Guttentag M – volume-title: Natural and Political Observations Mentioned in a Following Index and Made Upon the Bills of Mortality year: 1662 ident: CIT0014 contributor: fullname: Graunt J – ident: CIT0019 doi: 10.1038/scientificamerican0404-33 – volume-title: The Disciplined Mind: What All Students Should Understand year: 1999 ident: CIT0025 contributor: fullname: Gardner H – start-page: 17 volume-title: The Challenge of Developing Statistical Literacy, Reasoning and Thinking year: 2004 ident: CIT0001 doi: 10.1007/1-4020-2278-6_2 contributor: fullname: Pfannkuch M – volume: 23 start-page: 1 issue: 22 year: 2002 ident: CIT0020 publication-title: Vital Health Stat. contributor: fullname: Bramlett MD – volume-title: Prospective teachers experiencing the power of intuitive knowledge involving percentages year: 2011 ident: CIT0008 contributor: fullname: Peled I – ident: CIT0009 doi: 10.1037/h0031322 – volume: 14 start-page: 8 issue: 4 year: 2001 ident: CIT0012 publication-title: Chance doi: 10.1080/09332480.2001.10542293 contributor: fullname: Rodgers JL – volume: 4 start-page: 27 issue: 2 year: 2005 ident: CIT0011 publication-title: Stat. Educ. Res. J. doi: 10.52041/serj.v4i2.513 contributor: fullname: Groth RE – start-page: 3 volume-title: Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases year: 1982 ident: CIT0003 doi: 10.1017/CBO9780511809477.002 contributor: fullname: Tversky A – ident: CIT0026 doi: 10.1111/j.1751-5823.1999.tb00442.x – ident: CIT0005 doi: 10.1007/s10649-006-4833-1 – volume: 2 start-page: 66 year: 2004 ident: CIT0017 publication-title: Evol. Psychol. doi: 10.1177/147470490400200112 contributor: fullname: Kruger D – volume-title: The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection year: 1930 ident: CIT0013 doi: 10.5962/bhl.title.27468 contributor: fullname: Fisher RA – start-page: 315 volume-title: Learning and Teaching Mathematics: An International Perspective year: 1997 ident: CIT0027 contributor: fullname: Gravemeijer K – start-page: 49 volume-title: Heuristics of Intuitive Judgment: Extensions and Applications year: 2002 ident: CIT0010 doi: 10.1017/CBO9780511808098.004 contributor: fullname: Kahneman D – volume: 9 start-page: 1 issue: 2 year: 2009 ident: CIT0006 publication-title: Can. J. Sci. Math. Technol. Educ. doi: 10.1080/14926150902908776 contributor: fullname: Peled I – ident: CIT0029 doi: 10.1080/10986065.2011.538295 – ident: CIT0007 doi: 10.1037/0012-1649.33.1.92 – ident: CIT0030 doi: 10.1080/10986065.2011.538294 – ident: CIT0021 doi: 10.1525/maq.2004.18.4.405 – ident: CIT0024 – ident: CIT0022 – volume-title: Intuition in Science and Mathematics: An Educational Approach year: 1987 ident: CIT0004 contributor: fullname: Fischbein E – volume: 211 start-page: 14 issue: 2 year: 2007 ident: CIT0023 publication-title: Natl Geographic, contributor: fullname: Gwin P |
SSID | ssj0001449 |
Score | 1.9191009 |
Snippet | The phenomenon of birth of a baby is a common and familiar one, and yet college students participating in a general biology class did not possess the expected... |
SourceID | proquest crossref informaworld |
SourceType | Aggregation Database Publisher |
StartPage | 59 |
SubjectTerms | Births cognitive conflict Design of experiments Gender gender birth ratio intuition statistical thinking |
Title | Uncommon knowledge of a common phenomenon: intuitions and statistical thinking about gender birth ratio |
URI | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0020739X.2012.690898 https://www.proquest.com/docview/1242014785 |
Volume | 44 |
hasFullText | 1 |
inHoldings | 1 |
isFullTextHit | |
isPrint | |
link | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwnV1Nb9swDBWy7rIdiu4La9cNOuwWOHAsS3J2G4oW3YBmOyRAboZlS10O64bUvexH7TeOFCXHhoth68VIlIQxxGeRoh5Jxt43zommMk2irBOwQZEqMfNGJ7BjdrmpZW58ktjVUl2u888buZlMfvdYS3etmdW_7s0reYhWYQz0ilmy_6HZTigMwGvQL1xBw3D9Jx2vb0Aq_Nu0i4yFdEcaRfoWFlgg9sYWrAvxs_yBAWYS-SLNyDb_Rh0UAk352reXm5otHul4hPRd2GEMsVd54ntXARbe20gcwYBKzB3ybM1RLP8rWD6Psy9uV02Xs9H4p922HQ3GsP90PetHLrCLxCBysRo1EenF22KqQZpo4XvtgrGiFTpXOeyewwodlnAqITmAKq3Hodo4WXbqCTOyGZFkmeGh5QbZftlM4XFosbeRHXORPnjEHmd6IZFCKtJlZ_lhcxooRXTbMVUTa7nfI37gCg0K5Y4cA-_trI7YYdim8I-EuWdsYm-es6dXnYZvX7DriD7eoY__cLziYXSPvg98jz0OGOA97PGIPe6xxwl73GOPe-y9ZOuL89XZZRLadiQ1-DotPOaLKrNpMxfS2iyzjVGFMrkQCyW1dpWTrqgyYQsLi4Ks6jS1Js3q1Lq5adADfsUO4N7sa8Y1iMmxBKSCVUPqhVGmctiTAcRpcKaPWRJnsPxJ1VnKeVf0lma8xBkvacaPWdGf5rL1EHSEvlL8_aenUSVleLRuS3CO4Su5LuTJwyW_YU_2T8cpO2h3d_YteLqteefh9QfeZ6oG |
link.rule.ids | 315,786,790,27955,27956,60239,61028 |
linkProvider | Taylor & Francis |
linkToHtml | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwpV07T8MwED5BGYCBN6I8PbCmSpPYSdkQoirQdqJSNytO7BYhtahNF349d3ZSURAMsEbxxfGd7fP5u-8ArnNjwjxVuSe0CfGAwoWnmnns4YnZRCrjkbJJYr2-6AyixyGv0ITzElZJZ2jjiCLsWk2Tm4LRFSSOUrjpgmlIyKygIejqKlmHDUGJmpTF4feXizGeF0qUh-9Rkyp77gcpK7vTCnfpt7XabkDtXVBV1x3u5LWxKFQje__C6vivf9uDndI9ZbfOnvZhTU8OYLu35HadH8JoMEGRaL1sGY9jU8NSVj4l0BjROkwnN-wFdzSHCWPYI0bZS5YYGj9RjF3VBmah0WxkS9ox9TIrxsxa5REM2vfPdx2vLNfgZbjHFajeVhpoP2-GXOsg0LkSiVBRGLYEj2OTGm6SNAh1otEYeJr5vlZ-kPnaNFVOns8x1LBv-gRYjGIiov4TaC08bimhUkNc_CguRieqDl6lJvnmWDlkc0l26gZQ0gBKN4B1SD7rUhY2GmJc6RIZ_t70vNK7LKf3XKJThK9EccJP_y75CjY7z72u7D70n85gK7B1Nii2cw61YrbQF-jtFOrS2vMH1-P0rg |
linkToPdf | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwpV07T8MwELagSAgG3ohCAQ-sqfKyk7IhoCqPVgxU6mbFid1WSG3Vpgu_njs7iSgIBlij-OL4zr6z_d13hFxlWgdZIjOHKx3ABoVxR3pZ5MCOWYcyZaE0SWLdHu_0w8cBG3zK4kdYJe6htSWKMGs1Tu5ZpktEHGZw4_3SAIFZfpPjzVW8TjY4-kpM4nB71VoM24UC5OE62KRMnvtByopzWqEu_bZUG__T3iVJ2XMLO3lrLnPZTN-_kDr-59f2yE4RnNIba037ZE1NDsh2t2J2XRySYX8CEsF2aXUaR6eaJrR4ipAxJHWYTq7pGPyZRYRR6BDF3CVDCw2fyEe2ZgM1wGg6NAXtqBzP8xE1NnlE-u3719uOUxRrcFLwcDkot5X4ys28gCnl-yqTPOYyDIIWZ1GkE810nPiBihWYAktS11XS9VNXaU9mGPcckxr0TZ0QGoGYEIn_ONgKi1qSy0QjEz-IiyCEqhOn1JKYWU4O4VVUp3YABQ6gsANYJ_FnVYrcnIVoW7hEBL83bZRqF8XkXggIieCVMIrZ6d8lX5LNl7u2eH7oPZ2RLd8U2cCDnQap5fOlOodQJ5cXxpo_APfd81s |
openUrl | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info%3Aofi%2Fenc%3AUTF-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsummon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Uncommon+knowledge+of+a+common+phenomenon%3A+intuitions+and+statistical+thinking+about+gender+birth+ratio&rft.jtitle=International+journal+of+mathematical+education+in+science+and+technology&rft.au=Peled%2C+Ofra+N.&rft.au=Peled%2C+Irit&rft.au=Peled%2C+Jonathan+U.&rft.date=2013-01-01&rft.pub=Taylor+%26+Francis+Group&rft.issn=0020-739X&rft.eissn=1464-5211&rft.volume=44&rft.issue=1&rft.spage=59&rft.epage=69&rft_id=info:doi/10.1080%2F0020739X.2012.690898&rft.externalDocID=690898 |
thumbnail_l | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/lc.gif&issn=0020-739X&client=summon |
thumbnail_m | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/mc.gif&issn=0020-739X&client=summon |
thumbnail_s | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/sc.gif&issn=0020-739X&client=summon |