Uncommon knowledge of a common phenomenon: intuitions and statistical thinking about gender birth ratio

The phenomenon of birth of a baby is a common and familiar one, and yet college students participating in a general biology class did not possess the expected common knowledge of the equal probability of gender births. We found that these students held strikingly skewed conceptions regarding gender...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published inInternational journal of mathematical education in science and technology Vol. 44; no. 1; pp. 59 - 69
Main Authors Peled, Ofra N., Peled, Irit, Peled, Jonathan U.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published London Taylor & Francis Group 01.01.2013
Taylor & Francis Ltd
Subjects
Births
cognitive conflict
Design of experiments
Gender
gender birth ratio
intuition
statistical thinking
Online AccessGet full text

Cover

Abstract The phenomenon of birth of a baby is a common and familiar one, and yet college students participating in a general biology class did not possess the expected common knowledge of the equal probability of gender births. We found that these students held strikingly skewed conceptions regarding gender birth ratio, estimating the number of female births to be more than twice the number of male births. Possible sources of these beliefs were analysed, showing flaws in statistical thinking such as viewing small unplanned samples as representing the whole population and making inferences from an inappropriate population. Some educational implications are discussed and a short teaching example (using data assembly) demonstrates an instructional direction that might facilitate conceptual change.
AbstractList The phenomenon of birth of a baby is a common and familiar one, and yet college students participating in a general biology class did not possess the expected common knowledge of the equal probability of gender births. We found that these students held strikingly skewed conceptions regarding gender birth ratio, estimating the number of female births to be more than twice the number of male births. Possible sources of these beliefs were analysed, showing flaws in statistical thinking such as viewing small unplanned samples as representing the whole population and making inferences from an inappropriate population. Some educational implications are discussed and a short teaching example (using data assembly) demonstrates an instructional direction that might facilitate conceptual change. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
The phenomenon of birth of a baby is a common and familiar one, and yet college students participating in a general biology class did not possess the expected common knowledge of the equal probability of gender births. We found that these students held strikingly skewed conceptions regarding gender birth ratio, estimating the number of female births to be more than twice the number of male births. Possible sources of these beliefs were analysed, showing flaws in statistical thinking such as viewing small unplanned samples as representing the whole population and making inferences from an inappropriate population. Some educational implications are discussed and a short teaching example (using data assembly) demonstrates an instructional direction that might facilitate conceptual change.
Author Peled, Jonathan U.
Peled, Ofra N.
Peled, Irit
Author_xml – sequence: 1
  givenname: Ofra N.
  surname: Peled
  fullname: Peled, Ofra N.
  organization: Department of Natural Science , National-Louis University
– sequence: 2
  givenname: Irit
  surname: Peled
  fullname: Peled, Irit
  email: ipeled@edu.haifa.ac.il
  organization: Department of Mathematics Education , University of Haifa
– sequence: 3
  givenname: Jonathan U.
  surname: Peled
  fullname: Peled, Jonathan U.
  organization: Department of Internal Medicine , Massachusetts General Hospital
BookMark eNp9kE1LAzEQhoNUsK3-Aw8Bz1sn2eyXF5HiFxS8WPAWsruTNu1uUpOU0n_vlurVwzAwPO878EzIyDqLhNwymDEo4R6AQ5FWXzMOjM_yCsqqvCBjJnKRZJyxERmfkOTEXJFJCBsAYEJUY7Ja2sb1vbN0a92hw3aF1Gmq6O91t0br-mHsAzU27k00zgaqbEtDVNGEaBrV0bg2dmvsiqra7SNdoW3R09r4uKZ-wNw1udSqC3jzu6dk-fL8OX9LFh-v7_OnRdLwUsSkyCvFEVqWZoicY1vnZV6LNK3yrCi00pkuFU-xRNYWmWoAsAbeAGpWt5Dn6ZTcnXt33n3vMUS5cXtvh5eScTH4EUWZDZQ4U413IXjUcudNr_xRMpAnpfJPqTwplWelQ-zxHDNWO9-rg_NdK6M6ds5rr2xjgkz_bfgBRf-BEA
CODEN IJMEBM
Cites_doi 10.2307/2975286
10.1038/scientificamerican0404-33
10.1007/1-4020-2278-6_2
10.1037/h0031322
10.1080/09332480.2001.10542293
10.52041/serj.v4i2.513
10.1017/CBO9780511809477.002
10.1111/j.1751-5823.1999.tb00442.x
10.1007/s10649-006-4833-1
10.1177/147470490400200112
10.5962/bhl.title.27468
10.1017/CBO9780511808098.004
10.1080/14926150902908776
10.1080/10986065.2011.538295
10.1037/0012-1649.33.1.92
10.1080/10986065.2011.538294
10.1525/maq.2004.18.4.405
ContentType Journal Article
Copyright Copyright Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 2013
Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC
Copyright_xml – notice: Copyright Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 2013
– notice: Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC
DBID AAYXX
CITATION
DOI 10.1080/0020739X.2012.690898
DatabaseName CrossRef
DatabaseTitle CrossRef
DatabaseTitleList

DeliveryMethod fulltext_linktorsrc
Discipline Mathematics
EISSN 1464-5211
EndPage 69
ExternalDocumentID 2847666731
10_1080_0020739X_2012_690898
690898
Genre Original Articles
Feature
GroupedDBID -~X
.7F
.DC
.GO
.QJ
0BK
0R~
186
29J
30N
4.4
5GY
5VS
85S
AAAVI
AAENE
AAJMT
AALDU
AAMIU
AAPUL
AAQRR
ABBKH
ABCCY
ABFIM
ABHAV
ABJVF
ABLIJ
ABPEM
ABPPZ
ABPTK
ABQHQ
ABTAI
ABXUL
ACGEJ
ACGFS
ACIWK
ACTIO
ADCVX
ADGTB
ADMHC
ADXPE
AEGYZ
AEISY
AEOZL
AEPSL
AEYOC
AFKVX
AFOLD
AFWLO
AGDLA
AGMYJ
AHDLD
AIJEM
AIRXU
AJWEG
AKBVH
AKOOK
ALMA_UNASSIGNED_HOLDINGS
ALQZU
AQRUH
AVBZW
AWYRJ
BLEHA
CCCUG
CE4
CS3
D0L
DGEBU
DKSSO
EBS
EJD
E~A
E~B
FUNRP
FVPDL
GTTXZ
H13
HF~
HZ~
H~P
IPNFZ
J.P
KYCEM
M4Z
NA5
NY~
O9-
P2P
PQEST
PQQKQ
RIG
RNANH
ROSJB
RTWRZ
S-T
S10
SNACF
TEJ
TFL
TFT
TFW
TTHFI
TWF
UT5
UU3
V1K
WH7
ZGOLN
~S~
AAHSB
AAYXX
ABJNI
ABPAQ
ABXYU
AHDZW
CITATION
TBQAZ
TDBHL
TUROJ
ID FETCH-LOGICAL-c284t-769a2e0d135ee22edb686b43396577faf5f8a23e8e1d75ac00eb02c0ef1bd0663
ISSN 0020-739X
IngestDate Thu Oct 10 19:59:49 EDT 2024
Fri Aug 23 02:50:59 EDT 2024
Tue Jun 13 19:34:35 EDT 2023
IsPeerReviewed true
IsScholarly true
Issue 1
Language English
LinkModel OpenURL
MergedId FETCHMERGED-LOGICAL-c284t-769a2e0d135ee22edb686b43396577faf5f8a23e8e1d75ac00eb02c0ef1bd0663
PQID 1242014785
PQPubID 176146
PageCount 11
ParticipantIDs proquest_journals_1242014785
crossref_primary_10_1080_0020739X_2012_690898
informaworld_taylorfrancis_310_1080_0020739X_2012_690898
PublicationCentury 2000
PublicationDate 2013-01-01
PublicationDateYYYYMMDD 2013-01-01
PublicationDate_xml – month: 01
  year: 2013
  text: 2013-01-01
  day: 01
PublicationDecade 2010
PublicationPlace London
PublicationPlace_xml – name: London
PublicationTitle International journal of mathematical education in science and technology
PublicationYear 2013
Publisher Taylor & Francis Group
Taylor & Francis Ltd
Publisher_xml – name: Taylor & Francis Group
– name: Taylor & Francis Ltd
References Peled I (CIT0008) 2011
CIT0030
Fisher RA (CIT0013) 1930
Rodgers JL (CIT0012) 2001; 14
Kahneman D (CIT0010) 2002
Gravemeijer K (CIT0027) 1997
Kruger D (CIT0017) 2004; 2
Groth RE (CIT0011) 2005; 4
Tversky A (CIT0003) 1982
Gwin P (CIT0023) 2007; 211
CIT0019
CIT0021
CIT0022
Kahneman D (CIT0002) 2003
Pfannkuch M (CIT0001) 2004
Peled I (CIT0006) 2009; 9
Bramlett MD (CIT0020) 2002; 23
Gardner H (CIT0025) 1999
Fischbein E (CIT0004) 1987
Graunt J (CIT0014) 1662
CIT0024
CIT0005
CIT0026
CIT0007
CIT0029
CIT0028
CIT0009
Guttentag M (CIT0018) 1983
References_xml – ident: CIT0028
  doi: 10.2307/2975286
– start-page: 416
  volume-title: Les Prix Nobel
  year: 2003
  ident: CIT0002
  contributor:
    fullname: Kahneman D
– volume-title: Too Many Women?: The Sex Ratio Question
  year: 1983
  ident: CIT0018
  contributor:
    fullname: Guttentag M
– volume-title: Natural and Political Observations Mentioned in a Following Index and Made Upon the Bills of Mortality
  year: 1662
  ident: CIT0014
  contributor:
    fullname: Graunt J
– ident: CIT0019
  doi: 10.1038/scientificamerican0404-33
– volume-title: The Disciplined Mind: What All Students Should Understand
  year: 1999
  ident: CIT0025
  contributor:
    fullname: Gardner H
– start-page: 17
  volume-title: The Challenge of Developing Statistical Literacy, Reasoning and Thinking
  year: 2004
  ident: CIT0001
  doi: 10.1007/1-4020-2278-6_2
  contributor:
    fullname: Pfannkuch M
– volume: 23
  start-page: 1
  issue: 22
  year: 2002
  ident: CIT0020
  publication-title: Vital Health Stat.
  contributor:
    fullname: Bramlett MD
– volume-title: Prospective teachers experiencing the power of intuitive knowledge involving percentages
  year: 2011
  ident: CIT0008
  contributor:
    fullname: Peled I
– ident: CIT0009
  doi: 10.1037/h0031322
– volume: 14
  start-page: 8
  issue: 4
  year: 2001
  ident: CIT0012
  publication-title: Chance
  doi: 10.1080/09332480.2001.10542293
  contributor:
    fullname: Rodgers JL
– volume: 4
  start-page: 27
  issue: 2
  year: 2005
  ident: CIT0011
  publication-title: Stat. Educ. Res. J.
  doi: 10.52041/serj.v4i2.513
  contributor:
    fullname: Groth RE
– start-page: 3
  volume-title: Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
  year: 1982
  ident: CIT0003
  doi: 10.1017/CBO9780511809477.002
  contributor:
    fullname: Tversky A
– ident: CIT0026
  doi: 10.1111/j.1751-5823.1999.tb00442.x
– ident: CIT0005
  doi: 10.1007/s10649-006-4833-1
– volume: 2
  start-page: 66
  year: 2004
  ident: CIT0017
  publication-title: Evol. Psychol.
  doi: 10.1177/147470490400200112
  contributor:
    fullname: Kruger D
– volume-title: The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection
  year: 1930
  ident: CIT0013
  doi: 10.5962/bhl.title.27468
  contributor:
    fullname: Fisher RA
– start-page: 315
  volume-title: Learning and Teaching Mathematics: An International Perspective
  year: 1997
  ident: CIT0027
  contributor:
    fullname: Gravemeijer K
– start-page: 49
  volume-title: Heuristics of Intuitive Judgment: Extensions and Applications
  year: 2002
  ident: CIT0010
  doi: 10.1017/CBO9780511808098.004
  contributor:
    fullname: Kahneman D
– volume: 9
  start-page: 1
  issue: 2
  year: 2009
  ident: CIT0006
  publication-title: Can. J. Sci. Math. Technol. Educ.
  doi: 10.1080/14926150902908776
  contributor:
    fullname: Peled I
– ident: CIT0029
  doi: 10.1080/10986065.2011.538295
– ident: CIT0007
  doi: 10.1037/0012-1649.33.1.92
– ident: CIT0030
  doi: 10.1080/10986065.2011.538294
– ident: CIT0021
  doi: 10.1525/maq.2004.18.4.405
– ident: CIT0024
– ident: CIT0022
– volume-title: Intuition in Science and Mathematics: An Educational Approach
  year: 1987
  ident: CIT0004
  contributor:
    fullname: Fischbein E
– volume: 211
  start-page: 14
  issue: 2
  year: 2007
  ident: CIT0023
  publication-title: Natl Geographic,
  contributor:
    fullname: Gwin P
SSID ssj0001449
Score 1.9191009
Snippet The phenomenon of birth of a baby is a common and familiar one, and yet college students participating in a general biology class did not possess the expected...
SourceID proquest
crossref
informaworld
SourceType Aggregation Database
Publisher
StartPage 59
SubjectTerms Births
cognitive conflict
Design of experiments
Gender
gender birth ratio
intuition
statistical thinking
Title Uncommon knowledge of a common phenomenon: intuitions and statistical thinking about gender birth ratio
URI https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0020739X.2012.690898
https://www.proquest.com/docview/1242014785
Volume 44
hasFullText 1
inHoldings 1
isFullTextHit
isPrint
link http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwnV1Nb9swDBWy7rIdiu4La9cNOuwWOHAsS3J2G4oW3YBmOyRAboZlS10O64bUvexH7TeOFCXHhoth68VIlIQxxGeRoh5Jxt43zommMk2irBOwQZEqMfNGJ7BjdrmpZW58ktjVUl2u888buZlMfvdYS3etmdW_7s0reYhWYQz0ilmy_6HZTigMwGvQL1xBw3D9Jx2vb0Aq_Nu0i4yFdEcaRfoWFlgg9sYWrAvxs_yBAWYS-SLNyDb_Rh0UAk352reXm5otHul4hPRd2GEMsVd54ntXARbe20gcwYBKzB3ybM1RLP8rWD6Psy9uV02Xs9H4p922HQ3GsP90PetHLrCLxCBysRo1EenF22KqQZpo4XvtgrGiFTpXOeyewwodlnAqITmAKq3Hodo4WXbqCTOyGZFkmeGh5QbZftlM4XFosbeRHXORPnjEHmd6IZFCKtJlZ_lhcxooRXTbMVUTa7nfI37gCg0K5Y4cA-_trI7YYdim8I-EuWdsYm-es6dXnYZvX7DriD7eoY__cLziYXSPvg98jz0OGOA97PGIPe6xxwl73GOPe-y9ZOuL89XZZRLadiQ1-DotPOaLKrNpMxfS2iyzjVGFMrkQCyW1dpWTrqgyYQsLi4Ks6jS1Js3q1Lq5adADfsUO4N7sa8Y1iMmxBKSCVUPqhVGmctiTAcRpcKaPWRJnsPxJ1VnKeVf0lma8xBkvacaPWdGf5rL1EHSEvlL8_aenUSVleLRuS3CO4Su5LuTJwyW_YU_2T8cpO2h3d_YteLqteefh9QfeZ6oG
link.rule.ids 315,786,790,27955,27956,60239,61028
linkProvider Taylor & Francis
linkToHtml http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwpV07T8MwED5BGYCBN6I8PbCmSpPYSdkQoirQdqJSNytO7BYhtahNF349d3ZSURAMsEbxxfGd7fP5u-8ArnNjwjxVuSe0CfGAwoWnmnns4YnZRCrjkbJJYr2-6AyixyGv0ITzElZJZ2jjiCLsWk2Tm4LRFSSOUrjpgmlIyKygIejqKlmHDUGJmpTF4feXizGeF0qUh-9Rkyp77gcpK7vTCnfpt7XabkDtXVBV1x3u5LWxKFQje__C6vivf9uDndI9ZbfOnvZhTU8OYLu35HadH8JoMEGRaL1sGY9jU8NSVj4l0BjROkwnN-wFdzSHCWPYI0bZS5YYGj9RjF3VBmah0WxkS9ox9TIrxsxa5REM2vfPdx2vLNfgZbjHFajeVhpoP2-GXOsg0LkSiVBRGLYEj2OTGm6SNAh1otEYeJr5vlZ-kPnaNFVOns8x1LBv-gRYjGIiov4TaC08bimhUkNc_CguRieqDl6lJvnmWDlkc0l26gZQ0gBKN4B1SD7rUhY2GmJc6RIZ_t70vNK7LKf3XKJThK9EccJP_y75CjY7z72u7D70n85gK7B1Nii2cw61YrbQF-jtFOrS2vMH1-P0rg
linkToPdf http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwpV07T8MwELagSAgG3ohCAQ-sqfKyk7IhoCqPVgxU6mbFid1WSG3Vpgu_njs7iSgIBlij-OL4zr6z_d13hFxlWgdZIjOHKx3ABoVxR3pZ5MCOWYcyZaE0SWLdHu_0w8cBG3zK4kdYJe6htSWKMGs1Tu5ZpktEHGZw4_3SAIFZfpPjzVW8TjY4-kpM4nB71VoM24UC5OE62KRMnvtByopzWqEu_bZUG__T3iVJ2XMLO3lrLnPZTN-_kDr-59f2yE4RnNIba037ZE1NDsh2t2J2XRySYX8CEsF2aXUaR6eaJrR4ipAxJHWYTq7pGPyZRYRR6BDF3CVDCw2fyEe2ZgM1wGg6NAXtqBzP8xE1NnlE-u3719uOUxRrcFLwcDkot5X4ys28gCnl-yqTPOYyDIIWZ1GkE810nPiBihWYAktS11XS9VNXaU9mGPcckxr0TZ0QGoGYEIn_ONgKi1qSy0QjEz-IiyCEqhOn1JKYWU4O4VVUp3YABQ6gsANYJ_FnVYrcnIVoW7hEBL83bZRqF8XkXggIieCVMIrZ6d8lX5LNl7u2eH7oPZ2RLd8U2cCDnQap5fOlOodQJ5cXxpo_APfd81s
openUrl ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info%3Aofi%2Fenc%3AUTF-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsummon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Uncommon+knowledge+of+a+common+phenomenon%3A+intuitions+and+statistical+thinking+about+gender+birth+ratio&rft.jtitle=International+journal+of+mathematical+education+in+science+and+technology&rft.au=Peled%2C+Ofra+N.&rft.au=Peled%2C+Irit&rft.au=Peled%2C+Jonathan+U.&rft.date=2013-01-01&rft.pub=Taylor+%26+Francis+Group&rft.issn=0020-739X&rft.eissn=1464-5211&rft.volume=44&rft.issue=1&rft.spage=59&rft.epage=69&rft_id=info:doi/10.1080%2F0020739X.2012.690898&rft.externalDocID=690898
thumbnail_l http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/lc.gif&issn=0020-739X&client=summon
thumbnail_m http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/mc.gif&issn=0020-739X&client=summon
thumbnail_s http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/sc.gif&issn=0020-739X&client=summon