Effect of homophily on coupled behavior-disease dynamics near a tipping point

• Published in: Mathematical biosciences Vol. 376; p. 109264
• Main Authors: He, Zitao, Bauch, Chris T.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Elsevier Inc 01.10.2024
• Subjects: Behavioral epidemiology; Game theory; Homophily; Social learning; Vaccination; Homophily; Social learning; Game theory; Vaccination; Behavioral epidemiology
• DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109264
• ISSN: 0025-5564; 1879-3134

Understanding the interplay between social activities and disease dynamics is crucial for effective public health interventions. Recent studies using coupled behavior-disease models assumed homogeneous populations. However, heterogeneity in population, such as different social groups, cannot be ignored. In this study, we divided the population into social media users and non-users, and investigated the impact of homophily (the tendency for individuals to associate with others similar to themselves) and online events on disease dynamics. Our results reveal that homophily hinders the adoption of vaccinating strategies, hastening the approach to a tipping point after which the population converges to an endemic equilibrium with no vaccine uptake. Furthermore, we find that online events can significantly influence disease dynamics, with early discussions on social media platforms serving as an early warning signal of potential disease outbreaks. Our model provides insights into the mechanisms underlying these phenomena and underscores the importance of considering homophily in disease modeling and public health strategies. •Coupled model of disease dynamics and vaccination games between two social groups.•Lack of cross-group interactions could lead to early disease outbreaks.•Extreme events on social media could significantly affect disease dynamics.•Discussion on vaccination serves as signals for potential vaccine uptake collapse.