Bridging the gap between ensemble forecasting and end-user needs for decision-making on high-impact events

• Published in: Advances in science and research Vol. 22; pp. 39 - 52
• Main Authors: Ponzano, Matteo, Joly, Bruno, Beau, Isabelle, Renard, Elvis, Fifre, Gregory
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Katlenburg-Lindau Copernicus GmbH 29.07.2025; Copernicus Publications
• Subjects: Decision making; Energy industry; Ensemble forecasting; Forecasting; Heat stress; Heat tolerance; User needs; Weather; Weather forecasting; France

Ensemble forecasting is widely recognised as a more powerful and informative approach than deterministic forecasting, especially for anticipating high-impact events and supporting decisions under uncertain weather evolution. However, many end-users still struggle to interpret probabilistic forecasts...