If You’ll Be My Bodyguard: Presidential Guard Units and Leader Capture During Coups d’état
Coup “handbooks” emphasize the capture the incumbent leader as a key objective for plotters to enact successful regime change. However, the literature has yet to empirically assess this relationship. We also lack a robust understanding of how leaders prevent their own capture during coups d’état. Us...
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Published in | Armed forces and society Vol. 51; no. 1; pp. 46 - 69 |
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Main Author | |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
Los Angeles, CA
SAGE Publications
01.01.2025
Transaction Inc |
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Abstract | Coup “handbooks” emphasize the capture the incumbent leader as a key objective for plotters to enact successful regime change. However, the literature has yet to empirically assess this relationship. We also lack a robust understanding of how leaders prevent their own capture during coups d’état. Using novel data on leader statuses during coups from 1950 to 2017, I find evidence that incumbent leader capture has a positive and significant relationship with the likelihood of coup success. The findings also suggest that leader capture will be less likely if the regime pre-emptively creates a counterweight presidential guard unit, responsible for providing proximate security for the core leadership. These data and findings provide new insights into the dynamics of in-progress coups, focusing on the operational strategies employed by both sides. It also demonstrates the diversity of independent effects that specific types of counterweight forces have on specific coup outcomes, encouraging further study in this area. |
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AbstractList | Coup “handbooks” emphasize the capture the incumbent leader as a key objective for plotters to enact successful regime change. However, the literature has yet to empirically assess this relationship. We also lack a robust understanding of how leaders prevent their own capture during coups d’état. Using novel data on leader statuses during coups from 1950 to 2017, I find evidence that incumbent leader capture has a positive and significant relationship with the likelihood of coup success. The findings also suggest that leader capture will be less likely if the regime pre-emptively creates a counterweight presidential guard unit, responsible for providing proximate security for the core leadership. These data and findings provide new insights into the dynamics of in-progress coups, focusing on the operational strategies employed by both sides. It also demonstrates the diversity of independent effects that specific types of counterweight forces have on specific coup outcomes, encouraging further study in this area. |
Author | Matthews, Austin S. |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Austin S. surname: Matthews fullname: Matthews, Austin S. email: matthewsa22@ecu.edu |
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Cites_doi | 10.1177/0738894212449093 10.1177/0010414017699204 10.1177/0022343319839449 10.1162/016228899560202 10.1177/0010414021997161 10.1093/pan/mpq013 10.1177/0022343310368350 10.1177/097152319500200105 10.1177/00223433211067061 10.1177/0095327X9602300203 10.1177/0022002712445732 10.1177/0095327X9402000405 10.1177/0095327X8601300106 10.4159/harvard.9780674075320 10.1017/S0022463400010304 10.1177/0022343320913089 10.1093/isq/sqab012 10.1177/0738894219836285 10.1177/0022002714567953 10.1080/09592318.2014.913546 10.2307/2643140 10.1080/03050628808434695 10.1177/0010414016655538 10.1017/S0022381613001485 10.1017/pan.2018.8 10.1017/S0043887120000106 10.1177/0095327X211058765 10.1086/690616 10.1353/jod.2013.0024 10.1080/09636412.2020.1859129 10.5771/9781538120682 10.7591/9781501701764 10.1177/0022002717692652 10.1111/j.1467-7709.2008.00763.x 10.1080/03050629.2021.1977638 10.1017/S0043887111000049 10.1177/0022343310397436 10.1177/00223433211053187 10.1017/CBO9780511511646 10.1080/09636412.2022.2040585 10.1017/9781108500319 10.2307/2643833 10.1111/j.1743-8594.2011.00160.x 10.1353/book.31450 10.1177/0095327X221108370 10.1017/CBO9781316489031 10.2307/174972 10.1177/0022002702046005006 10.1177/0022002714545332 10.1177/0022343308100719 10.1353/jod.2011.0069 |
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Snippet | Coup “handbooks” emphasize the capture the incumbent leader as a key objective for plotters to enact successful regime change. However, the literature has yet... |
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SubjectTerms | Coups d'etat Handbooks Incumbency Leadership Presidents |
Title | If You’ll Be My Bodyguard: Presidential Guard Units and Leader Capture During Coups d’état |
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