Specification of prognostic models and software implementation of a calculator for predicting a fatal outcome in a combined pelvic injury

• Published in: Izvestiâ Saratovskogo universiteta. Novaâ seriâ. Seriâ Matematika. Mehanika. Informatika (Online) Vol. 22; no. 3; pp. 376 - 392
• Main Authors: Dmitriev, P. O., Kharlamov, A. V., Kazhanov, I. V., Kirillova, I. V., Kossovich, L. Yu, Falkovich, A. S., Mikityuk, S. I., Petrov, A. V.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Saratov State University 24.08.2022
• Subjects: classification; fatal outcome prediction; pelvic injury severity calculator; prognostic logit model of injury severity; risk factors
• DOI: 10.18500/1816-9791-2022-22-3-376-392
• ISSN: 1816-9791

Based on the regression, factor and discriminant analysis of the depersonalized data of 1082 patients with combined pelvic injuries, prognostic logit models were developed, including such factors as age, the variant of the mechanism of pelvic injury, results of the assessment of the degree of impaired consciousness and coma on the Glasgow scale, and total quantitative scores of damage severity for each of the three commonly used scales (Yu. N. Tsibin's, VPH-P (MT), ISS). The resulting three models for each of the three scales of injury severity have almost equal prediction efficiency for the dependent variable "outcome". The revealed regularities and the coefficient-formalized models for the predicting of the fatal outcome of pelvic injury treatment formed the base for the software implementations in the forms of tables and the calculator. During the testing, the usability as well as the satisfactory prediction accuracy were confirmed.