What does landslide triggering rainfall mean?

• Published in: E3S web of conferences Vol. 415; p. 3009
• Main Authors: Guthrie, Richard, Wasklewicz, Thad, Knibbs, Graham, Hertzman, Eric, Imen, Sanaz, Bigelow, David
• Format: Journal Article Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Published: Les Ulis EDP Sciences 01.01.2023
• Subjects: Debris flow; Hydrologic data; Landslides; Landslides & mudslides; Rainfall; Rainfall intensity; Statistical analysis; Thresholds
• ISSN: 2267-1242; 2555-0403; 2267-1242
• DOI: 10.1051/e3sconf/202341503009

Landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds are often subject to both false negatives (landslides where none are expected) and false positives (no landslides despite thresholds being exceeded). Debris flows and shallow landslides impact communities and infrastructures worldwide. Refinement of the relation between rainfall intensity and landslide occurrence would help remove the imprecise nature of this tool moving forward. Continuous 6-hour gridded precipitation data from over a five-year interval 900 km 2 , combined with a complete, time-constrained, landslide data base over the same period, are used to derive relations for the probability of shallow landslides with rainfall intensity measured over 6-hour, 12-hour, or 24-hour durations. Previously published and widely used thresholds are quantified in terms of landslide probability per unit area and demonstrate, for different sized study areas, the likelihood that at least one landslide will be initiated at different intensities and durations. Probabilistic distribution of landslides for a given study area and rainfall intensity can be easily derived using the binomial method from these relations.