Uma análise do dilema da persistência da inflação de serviços no Brasil
Resumo Este artigo analisa o Dilema da Persistência da Inflação de Serviços no Brasil, para o período entre agosto de 1999 e fevereiro de 2017. Para efeitos de comparação, cálculos também são feitos para o IPCA, para a inflação desagregada de bens, além de alguns itens desagregados da própria cesta...
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| Published in | Nova economia (Belo Horizonte, Brazil) Vol. 29; no. 2; pp. 541 - 563 |
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| Main Authors | , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | Portuguese |
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Belo Horizonte
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Departamento de Ciências Econômicas
01.08.2019
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| Abstract | Resumo Este artigo analisa o Dilema da Persistência da Inflação de Serviços no Brasil, para o período entre agosto de 1999 e fevereiro de 2017. Para efeitos de comparação, cálculos também são feitos para o IPCA, para a inflação desagregada de bens, além de alguns itens desagregados da própria cesta de serviços. São utilizados modelos ARFIMA, assim como testes para verificação de quebras estruturais. Os resultados mostram que, a princípio, a persistência na inflação de serviços é maior que a encontrada no IPCA e nos preços de bens. No entanto, após o tratamento das quebras estruturais, a variação dos preços dos serviços se mostra antipersistente e estacionária, indicando a existência do Dilema da Persistência da Inflação de Serviços para o caso brasileiro. O mesmo comportamento se verifica para os principais itens componentes da cesta de serviços.
Abstract This article analyzes the so-called Services Inflation Persistence Puzzle in Brazil, for the period ranging from August 1999 to February 2017. As a benchmark, we also analyze the Brazilian Consumer Inflation (IPCA), non-durable, semi-durable and durable goods, as well as some items disaggregated from the basket of services. Structural break tests and ARFIMA models are used. Results show that, initially, services inflation persistence is higher than that found in goods inflation and IPCA. However, after structural breaks are accounted for, services inflation seems to be anti-persistent and stationary, indicating the existence of the Services Inflation Persistence Puzzle in Brazil. The same behavior applies to the main components of the service basket. |
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| AbstractList | Resumo Este artigo analisa o Dilema da Persistência da Inflação de Serviços no Brasil, para o período entre agosto de 1999 e fevereiro de 2017. Para efeitos de comparação, cálculos também são feitos para o IPCA, para a inflação desagregada de bens, além de alguns itens desagregados da própria cesta de serviços. São utilizados modelos ARFIMA, assim como testes para verificação de quebras estruturais. Os resultados mostram que, a princípio, a persistência na inflação de serviços é maior que a encontrada no IPCA e nos preços de bens. No entanto, após o tratamento das quebras estruturais, a variação dos preços dos serviços se mostra antipersistente e estacionária, indicando a existência do Dilema da Persistência da Inflação de Serviços para o caso brasileiro. O mesmo comportamento se verifica para os principais itens componentes da cesta de serviços.
Abstract This article analyzes the so-called Services Inflation Persistence Puzzle in Brazil, for the period ranging from August 1999 to February 2017. As a benchmark, we also analyze the Brazilian Consumer Inflation (IPCA), non-durable, semi-durable and durable goods, as well as some items disaggregated from the basket of services. Structural break tests and ARFIMA models are used. Results show that, initially, services inflation persistence is higher than that found in goods inflation and IPCA. However, after structural breaks are accounted for, services inflation seems to be anti-persistent and stationary, indicating the existence of the Services Inflation Persistence Puzzle in Brazil. The same behavior applies to the main components of the service basket. Epub Oct 10, 2019. ISSN 0103-6351. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0103-6351/3633.This article analyzes the so-called Services Inflation Persistence Puzzle in Brazil, for the period ranging from August 1999 to February 2017. As a benchmark, we also analyze the Brazilian Consumer Inflation (IPCA), non-durable, semi-durable and durable goods, as well as some items disaggregated from the basket of services. Structural break tests and ARFIMA models are used. Results show that, initially, services inflation persistence is higher than that found in goods inflation and IPCA. However, after structural breaks are accounted for, services inflation seems to be anti-persistent and stationary, indicating the existence of the Services Inflation Persistence Puzzle in Brazil. The same behavior applies to the main components of the service basket. |
| Author | Silva, Cleomar Gomes da Borges, Gustavo Mapeli |
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| Title | Uma análise do dilema da persistência da inflação de serviços no Brasil |
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