Preindustrial 14CH4 indicates greater anthropogenic fossil CH4 emissions

• Published in: Nature (London) Vol. 578; no. 7795; pp. 409 - 412
• Main Authors: Hmiel, Benjamin, Petrenko, V. V., Dyonisius, M. N., Buizert, C., Smith, A. M., Place, P. F., Harth, C., Beaudette, R., Hua, Q., Yang, B., Vimont, I., Michel, S. E., Severinghaus, J. P., Etheridge, D., Bromley, T., Schmitt, J., Faïn, X., Weiss, R. F., Dlugokencky, E.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 20.02.2020; Nature Publishing Group
• Subjects: 639/638/169/824; 704/106/35; 704/106/694/674; 704/47/4113; Anthropogenic factors; Atmosphere; Atmospheric methane; Biomass; Carbon; Carbon 14; Confidence limits; Cosmic rays; Emission inventories; Emissions control; Environmental Sciences; Estimates; Fossil fuels; Gases; Geology; Greenhouse effect; Greenhouse gases; Human impact; Human influences; Humanities and Social Sciences; Ice cover; Ice sheets; Industrial plant emissions; Methane; Mud volcanoes; multidisciplinary; Nuclear fuels; Nuclear power plants; Nuclear reactors; Permafrost; Pleistocene; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Sciences of the Universe; Sea level; Time series; Volcanoes
• ISSN: 0028-0836; 1476-4687; 1476-4687
• DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-1991-8

Atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) is a potent greenhouse gas, and its mole fraction has more than doubled since the preindustrial era 1 . Fossil fuel extraction and use are among the largest anthropogenic sources of CH 4 emissions, but the precise magnitude of these contributions is a subject of debate 2 , 3 . Carbon-14 in CH 4 ( 14 CH 4 ) can be used to distinguish between fossil ( 14 C-free) CH 4 emissions and contemporaneous biogenic sources; however, poorly constrained direct 14 CH 4 emissions from nuclear reactors have complicated this approach since the middle of the 20th century 4 , 5 . Moreover, the partitioning of total fossil CH 4 emissions (presently 172 to 195 teragrams CH 4 per year) 2 , 3 between anthropogenic and natural geological sources (such as seeps and mud volcanoes) is under debate; emission inventories suggest that the latter account for about 40 to 60 teragrams CH 4 per year 6 , 7 . Geological emissions were less than 15.4 teragrams CH 4 per year at the end of the Pleistocene, about 11,600 years ago 8 , but that period is an imperfect analogue for present-day emissions owing to the large terrestrial ice sheet cover, lower sea level and extensive permafrost. Here we use preindustrial-era ice core 14 CH 4 measurements to show that natural geological CH 4 emissions to the atmosphere were about 1.6 teragrams CH 4 per year, with a maximum of 5.4 teragrams CH 4 per year (95 per cent confidence limit)—an order of magnitude lower than the currently used estimates. This result indicates that anthropogenic fossil CH 4 emissions are underestimated by about 38 to 58 teragrams CH 4 per year, or about 25 to 40 per cent of recent estimates. Our record highlights the human impact on the atmosphere and climate, provides a firm target for inventories of the global CH 4 budget, and will help to inform strategies for targeted emission reductions 9 , 10 . Isotopic evidence from ice cores indicates that preindustrial-era geological methane emissions were lower than previously thought, suggesting that present-day emissions of methane from fossil fuels are underestimated.