IMPACT OF SUMMER WARMING ON DYNAMICS-STATISTICS-COMBINED METHOD TO PREDICT THE SUMMER TEMPERATURE IN CHINA

• Published in: Journal of Tropical Meteorology Vol. 23; no. 4; pp. 440 - 449
• Main Author: 苏海晶 乔少博 杨杰 王晓娟
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Guangzhou Guangzhou Institute of Tropical & Marine Meteorology 01.12.2017
• Subjects: Business; Climate; Climate change; Climate models; Climate trends; Dynamics; Error correction & detection; Global climate; Global climate models; Global warming; Impact analysis; Independent sample; Post-production processing; Precipitation; Statistical analysis; Statistical methods; Statistics; Summer; Temperature; Temperature effects; Trends; Weather forecasting; China

Based on NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data, climate trend rate and other methods are used to quantitatively analyze the change trend of China’s summer observed temperature in 1983—2012. Moreover, a dynamics-statistics-combined seasonal forecast method with optimal multi-factor portfolio is applied to...