Financial development in the aftermath of banking crises

This paper examines the dynamic impact of systemic banking crises on financial development. Causal effects are identified using a propensity-score-based method for time series and panel data. Specifically, to address the non-random nature of banking crisis onsets, we apply inverse propensity score w...

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Published inJournal of international money and finance Vol. 157; p. 103395
Main Authors Everaert, Gerdie, Pozzi, Lorenzo
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Elsevier Ltd 01.08.2025
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ISSN0261-5606
DOI10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103395

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Abstract This paper examines the dynamic impact of systemic banking crises on financial development. Causal effects are identified using a propensity-score-based method for time series and panel data. Specifically, to address the non-random nature of banking crisis onsets, we apply inverse propensity score weighting to create a quasi-random distribution of crisis and non-crisis episodes. The appropriate weights are derived from a banking crisis prediction model that accounts for financial development in the run-up to crises. Using data on banking crises and a comprehensive set of financial development indicators for 174 countries from 1980 to 2019, we present novel evidence demonstrating that banking crisis shocks have a persistent negative effect on financial development. This finding holds across multiple dimensions of financial development. •Using data for 174 countries over the period 1980–2019, we present novel evidence that demonstrates banking crisis shocks have a negative persistent effect on financial development.•This finding holds across multiple dimensions of financial development.•Causal effects are identified using inverse propensity score weighting (IPW), with the weights estimated from a banking crisis prediction model.
AbstractList This paper examines the dynamic impact of systemic banking crises on financial development. Causal effects are identified using a propensity-score-based method for time series and panel data. Specifically, to address the non-random nature of banking crisis onsets, we apply inverse propensity score weighting to create a quasi-random distribution of crisis and non-crisis episodes. The appropriate weights are derived from a banking crisis prediction model that accounts for financial development in the run-up to crises. Using data on banking crises and a comprehensive set of financial development indicators for 174 countries from 1980 to 2019, we present novel evidence demonstrating that banking crisis shocks have a persistent negative effect on financial development. This finding holds across multiple dimensions of financial development. •Using data for 174 countries over the period 1980–2019, we present novel evidence that demonstrates banking crisis shocks have a negative persistent effect on financial development.•This finding holds across multiple dimensions of financial development.•Causal effects are identified using inverse propensity score weighting (IPW), with the weights estimated from a banking crisis prediction model.
ArticleNumber 103395
Author Everaert, Gerdie
Pozzi, Lorenzo
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  givenname: Gerdie
  surname: Everaert
  fullname: Everaert, Gerdie
  email: gerdie.everaert@ugent.be
  organization: Department of Economics, Ghent University, Sint-Pietersplein 6, 9000 Gent, Belgium
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  givenname: Lorenzo
  orcidid: 0000-0001-6219-5315
  surname: Pozzi
  fullname: Pozzi, Lorenzo
  email: pozzi@ese.eur.nl
  organization: Department of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam & Tinbergen Institute, P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, the Netherlands
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Panel data
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Financial development
Inverse probability weighting
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Snippet This paper examines the dynamic impact of systemic banking crises on financial development. Causal effects are identified using a propensity-score-based method...
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SubjectTerms Banking crises
Financial development
Inverse probability weighting
Local projections
Panel data
Title Financial development in the aftermath of banking crises
URI https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103395
Volume 157
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