Sampling effort and its allocation in the Lincoln–Petersen experiment: A hierarchical approach
Capture-recapture methods are widely used for estimating population sizes in ecological and epidemiological studies, yet the optimal allocation of sampling effort often remains underexplored. This study explores sampling efforts in a hierarchical framework that subdivides each capture occasion in a...
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| Published in | Journal of statistical planning and inference Vol. 241; p. 106330 |
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| Main Authors | , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Elsevier B.V
01.03.2026
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0378-3758 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106330 |
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| Abstract | Capture-recapture methods are widely used for estimating population sizes in ecological and epidemiological studies, yet the optimal allocation of sampling effort often remains underexplored. This study explores sampling efforts in a hierarchical framework that subdivides each capture occasion in a Lincoln–Petersen experiment into multiple sub-occasions, allowing for flexible resource allocation. When detection probabilities are equal across occasions, an even split minimizes variance; when probabilities differ, maximizing the joint detection probability is essential. A pseudo-Bayesian approach is also proposed to address scenarios with unknown catchabilities. Detailed simulation studies validate the theoretical findings and demonstrate the framework’s robustness. The resulting guidelines offer practical insights for designing more efficient capture-recapture experiments and improving population size estimates. |
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| AbstractList | Capture-recapture methods are widely used for estimating population sizes in ecological and epidemiological studies, yet the optimal allocation of sampling effort often remains underexplored. This study explores sampling efforts in a hierarchical framework that subdivides each capture occasion in a Lincoln–Petersen experiment into multiple sub-occasions, allowing for flexible resource allocation. When detection probabilities are equal across occasions, an even split minimizes variance; when probabilities differ, maximizing the joint detection probability is essential. A pseudo-Bayesian approach is also proposed to address scenarios with unknown catchabilities. Detailed simulation studies validate the theoretical findings and demonstrate the framework’s robustness. The resulting guidelines offer practical insights for designing more efficient capture-recapture experiments and improving population size estimates. |
| ArticleNumber | 106330 |
| Author | Overstall, Antony Böhning, Dankmar Chin, Su Na |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Su Na orcidid: 0000-0002-6826-266X surname: Chin fullname: Chin, Su Na email: chinsuna@ums.edu.my organization: Mathematical Sciences and Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom – sequence: 2 givenname: Antony orcidid: 0000-0003-0638-8635 surname: Overstall fullname: Overstall, Antony organization: Mathematical Sciences and Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom – sequence: 3 givenname: Dankmar orcidid: 0000-0003-0638-7106 surname: Böhning fullname: Böhning, Dankmar organization: Mathematical Sciences and Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom |
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| Cites_doi | 10.1097/00005650-196909000-00005 10.2307/2402438 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.06.009 10.2307/3808568 10.1371/journal.pone.0216221 10.1515/em-2020-0024 10.1371/journal.pone.0208726 10.1016/j.respe.2019.04.053 10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2020.108436 10.1016/0021-9681(68)90038-6 10.2307/2333183 10.2307/3808567 10.1080/00028487.2014.963254 10.1577/1548-8659(1964)93[215:SSIPME]2.0.CO;2 10.1002/ecy.2877 10.1111/j.0006-341X.2000.01227.x 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.07084.x 10.1371/journal.pone.0151683 10.2307/2531638 10.1080/01621459.1949.10483294 10.1080/01621459.2022.2123332 10.1525/abt.2018.80.7.522 10.1080/09286586.2020.1749286 10.1155/2023/3451338 10.3161/150811014X683426 10.1515/jos-2015-0022 |
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| Keywords | Population size Capture-recapture Variance estimation Sampling effort Lincoln–Petersen estimator |
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