Projections of Japan's CO2 Emission in Near Future and Factors of its Changes
In this paper, we report a projection of carbon dioxide emission of Japan using an end-use type energy model and an analysis on factors of CO2 emission changes. The projected emission in year 2020 amounts to 378.4 MtC/a (non-Intervention case), compared with 302.2 MtC/a in year 1990 while, with an e...
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| Published in | ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS RESEARCH Vol. 27; pp. 207 - 215 |
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| Main Authors | , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Japan Society of Civil Engineers
1999
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0915-0390 1884-8117 |
| DOI | 10.2208/proer1988.27.207 |
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| Abstract | In this paper, we report a projection of carbon dioxide emission of Japan using an end-use type energy model and an analysis on factors of CO2 emission changes. The projected emission in year 2020 amounts to 378.4 MtC/a (non-Intervention case), compared with 302.2 MtC/a in year 1990 while, with an economic countermeasure to reduce the emission, it amounts to 257.5 MtC/a in year 2020 (Countermeasure case). In order to attain the countermeasure-case which requires 0.7%/a decrease of CO2 emission, not only energy-efficiency improvement by 2.4%/a but also carbon-intensity decrease by 0.4%/a are necessary. The factor-analysis on the countermeasure-case shows the importance of both energy-efficiency improvements in residential/transport sectors and carbon-intensity decreases in residential/service sectors. With regard to a respective countermeasure, the analysis extracts some key technologies, which contribute to reduce CO2 emission substantially and suggests that the dissemination of key technologies such as energy-efficient air-conditioners and automobiles should be promoted intensively. |
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| AbstractList | In this paper, we report a projection of carbon dioxide emission of Japan using an end-use type energy model and an analysis on factors of CO2 emission changes. The projected emission in year 2020 amounts to 378.4 MtC/a (non-Intervention case), compared with 302.2 MtC/a in year 1990 while, with an economic countermeasure to reduce the emission, it amounts to 257.5 MtC/a in year 2020 (Countermeasure case). In order to attain the countermeasure-case which requires 0.7%/a decrease of CO2 emission, not only energy-efficiency improvement by 2.4%/a but also carbon-intensity decrease by 0.4%/a are necessary. The factor-analysis on the countermeasure-case shows the importance of both energy-efficiency improvements in residential/transport sectors and carbon-intensity decreases in residential/service sectors. With regard to a respective countermeasure, the analysis extracts some key technologies, which contribute to reduce CO2 emission substantially and suggests that the dissemination of key technologies such as energy-efficient air-conditioners and automobiles should be promoted intensively. |
| Author | FUJIOKA, Soshi HIBINO, Go SHIMADA, Koji MATSUOKA, Yuzuru |
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| References | 14) 総務庁「国勢調査報告平成7年版」 19) UNEP, UNEP Greenhouse Gas Abatement Costing Studies, Phase Two Report: UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment, Riso National Laboratory, Denmark, 1994 3) Schipper, L., and Meyers, S.: Energy Efficiency and Human Activity-Past Trends, Future Prospects-, Cambridge University Press, 1992 9) 国立社会保障・人口問題研究所「日本の将来推計人口」, 1997年1月 13) 経済企画庁「国民経済計算年報平成10年版」 17) 環境庁「地球温暖化対策技術評価検討会報告書」, 1996年5月 15) EDMC編「99エネルギー・経済統計要覧」 1) Schipper, L., and Haas R.: The political relevance of energy and CO2 indicators An Introduction, Energy Policy, Vol.25, p.639-649, 1997 4) Schipper, L., Ting, M., Khrushch, M., and Golove, W.: The evolution of carbon dioxide emissions from energy use in industrialized countries: an end-use analysis, Energy Policy, Vol.25, p.651-672, 1997 6) 松岡譲・森田恒幸・日比野剛・水野健太, エネルギー消費起因の二酸化炭素排出量推計モデルの開発とわが国の二酸化炭素排出量の見通しについて, 環境システム研究Vol.24, p.149-p.156, 1996 12) 資源エネルギー庁「総合エネルギー統計平成10年度版」 10) 地球温暖化対策関係審議会合同会議第3回資料, 1997年10月 18) 松岡譲・森田恒幸・甲斐沼美紀子・水野健太, わが国における二酸化炭素排出量の見通しとその抑制対策の効果について, 土木学会論文集 No.580/VII-5, p.27-p.36, 1997 11) 環境庁「二酸化炭素排出量調査報告書」, 1992年5月 16) 運輸省「運輸経済統計要覧平成9年版」 7) 松岡譲・森田恒幸, わが国の二酸化炭素排出量削減の可能性について, 環境システム研究Vol.25, p.133-p.142, 1997 8) 経済企画庁「構造改革のための経済社会計画」の推進状況と今後の課題, 1996年12月 5) 松岡譲・森田恒幸・水野健太, エネルギー消費技術の改善が二酸化炭素排出量抑制に及ぼす効果のシミュレーション, 土木学会論文集 No.573/VII-4, p.81-p.92, 1997 2) Phylipsen, G. J. M., Blok, K., and Worrell, E.: Handbook on International Comparisons of Energy Efficiency in the Manufacturing Industry, Utrecht University, 1998 |
| References_xml | – reference: 18) 松岡譲・森田恒幸・甲斐沼美紀子・水野健太, わが国における二酸化炭素排出量の見通しとその抑制対策の効果について, 土木学会論文集 No.580/VII-5, p.27-p.36, 1997 – reference: 15) EDMC編「99エネルギー・経済統計要覧」 – reference: 16) 運輸省「運輸経済統計要覧平成9年版」 – reference: 3) Schipper, L., and Meyers, S.: Energy Efficiency and Human Activity-Past Trends, Future Prospects-, Cambridge University Press, 1992 – reference: 13) 経済企画庁「国民経済計算年報平成10年版」 – reference: 5) 松岡譲・森田恒幸・水野健太, エネルギー消費技術の改善が二酸化炭素排出量抑制に及ぼす効果のシミュレーション, 土木学会論文集 No.573/VII-4, p.81-p.92, 1997 – reference: 8) 経済企画庁「構造改革のための経済社会計画」の推進状況と今後の課題, 1996年12月 – reference: 14) 総務庁「国勢調査報告平成7年版」 – reference: 19) UNEP, UNEP Greenhouse Gas Abatement Costing Studies, Phase Two Report: UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment, Riso National Laboratory, Denmark, 1994 – reference: 11) 環境庁「二酸化炭素排出量調査報告書」, 1992年5月 – reference: 1) Schipper, L., and Haas R.: The political relevance of energy and CO2 indicators An Introduction, Energy Policy, Vol.25, p.639-649, 1997 – reference: 2) Phylipsen, G. J. M., Blok, K., and Worrell, E.: Handbook on International Comparisons of Energy Efficiency in the Manufacturing Industry, Utrecht University, 1998 – reference: 6) 松岡譲・森田恒幸・日比野剛・水野健太, エネルギー消費起因の二酸化炭素排出量推計モデルの開発とわが国の二酸化炭素排出量の見通しについて, 環境システム研究Vol.24, p.149-p.156, 1996 – reference: 12) 資源エネルギー庁「総合エネルギー統計平成10年度版」 – reference: 10) 地球温暖化対策関係審議会合同会議第3回資料, 1997年10月 – reference: 17) 環境庁「地球温暖化対策技術評価検討会報告書」, 1996年5月 – reference: 9) 国立社会保障・人口問題研究所「日本の将来推計人口」, 1997年1月 – reference: 4) Schipper, L., Ting, M., Khrushch, M., and Golove, W.: The evolution of carbon dioxide emissions from energy use in industrialized countries: an end-use analysis, Energy Policy, Vol.25, p.651-672, 1997 – reference: 7) 松岡譲・森田恒幸, わが国の二酸化炭素排出量削減の可能性について, 環境システム研究Vol.25, p.133-p.142, 1997 |
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| Title | Projections of Japan's CO2 Emission in Near Future and Factors of its Changes |
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