Projections of Japan's CO2 Emission in Near Future and Factors of its Changes

• Published in: ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS RESEARCH Vol. 27; pp. 207 - 215
• Main Authors: HIBINO, Go, MATSUOKA, Yuzuru, FUJIOKA, Soshi, SHIMADA, Koji
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Japan Society of Civil Engineers 1999
• Subjects: Carbon Dioxide Emission; Carbon-Intensity; Energy-Efficiency; Factor-Analysis; Key Technologies
• ISSN: 0915-0390; 1884-8117
• DOI: 10.2208/proer1988.27.207

In this paper, we report a projection of carbon dioxide emission of Japan using an end-use type energy model and an analysis on factors of CO2 emission changes. The projected emission in year 2020 amounts to 378.4 MtC/a (non-Intervention case), compared with 302.2 MtC/a in year 1990 while, with an economic countermeasure to reduce the emission, it amounts to 257.5 MtC/a in year 2020 (Countermeasure case). In order to attain the countermeasure-case which requires 0.7%/a decrease of CO2 emission, not only energy-efficiency improvement by 2.4%/a but also carbon-intensity decrease by 0.4%/a are necessary. The factor-analysis on the countermeasure-case shows the importance of both energy-efficiency improvements in residential/transport sectors and carbon-intensity decreases in residential/service sectors. With regard to a respective countermeasure, the analysis extracts some key technologies, which contribute to reduce CO2 emission substantially and suggests that the dissemination of key technologies such as energy-efficient air-conditioners and automobiles should be promoted intensively.