Creating a Communication Framework for FACETs: How Probabilistic Hazard Information Affected Warning Operations in NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed
Abstract Scientists at NOAA are testing a new tool that allows forecasters to communicate estimated probabilities of severe hazards (tornadoes, severe wind, and hail) as part of the Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) framework. In this study, we employ the embedded systems the...
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Published in | Weather, climate, and society Vol. 14; no. 3; pp. 881 - 892 |
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Main Authors | , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
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American Meteorological Society
01.07.2022
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Abstract | Abstract Scientists at NOAA are testing a new tool that allows forecasters to communicate estimated probabilities of severe hazards (tornadoes, severe wind, and hail) as part of the Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) framework. In this study, we employ the embedded systems theory (EST)—a communication framework that analyzes small group workplace practices as products of group, organizational, and local dynamics—to understand how probabilistic hazard information (PHI) is produced and negotiated among multiple NWS weather forecast offices in an experimental setting. Gathering feedback from NWS meteorologists who participated in the 2020 Hazard Services (HS)-PHI Interoffice Collaboration experiment, we explored implications of local and interoffice collaboration while using this experimental tool. By using a qualitative thematic analysis, it was found that differing probability thresholds, forecasting styles, social dynamics, and workload will be social factors that developers should consider as they bring PHI toward operational readiness. Warning operations in this new paradigm were also implemented into the EST model to create a communication ecosystem for future weather hazard communication research. Significance Statement Meteorologists are currently exploring how to use probabilities to communicate life-saving information. From tornadoes to hail, a new type of probabilistic hazard information could fundamentally change the way that NWS meteorologists collaborate with one another when issuing weather products, especially near and along the boundaries of County Warning Areas. To explore potential collaboration challenges and solutions, we applied a communication framework and explored perceptions that NWS meteorologists had while using this new tool in an experimental setting. NWS meteorologists expressed that differing ways of communicating hazard information between each office, along with forecasting styles and workload, would change the way they go about producing critical hazard information to the public. |
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AbstractList | Scientists at NOAA are testing a new tool that allows forecasters to communicate estimated probabilities of severe hazards (tornadoes, severe wind, and hail) as part of the Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) framework. In this study, we employ the embedded systems theory (EST)—a communication framework that analyzes small group workplace practices as products of group, organizational, and local dynamics—to understand how probabilistic hazard information (PHI) is produced and negotiated among multiple NWS weather forecast offices in an experimental setting. Gathering feedback from NWS meteorologists who participated in the 2020 Hazard Services (HS)-PHI Interoffice Collaboration experiment, we explored implications of local and interoffice collaboration while using this experimental tool. By using a qualitative thematic analysis, it was found that differing probability thresholds, forecasting styles, social dynamics, and workload will be social factors that developers should consider as they bring PHI toward operational readiness. Warning operations in this new paradigm were also implemented into the EST model to create a communication ecosystem for future weather hazard communication research.Significance StatementMeteorologists are currently exploring how to use probabilities to communicate life-saving information. From tornadoes to hail, a new type of probabilistic hazard information could fundamentally change the way that NWS meteorologists collaborate with one another when issuing weather products, especially near and along the boundaries of County Warning Areas. To explore potential collaboration challenges and solutions, we applied a communication framework and explored perceptions that NWS meteorologists had while using this new tool in an experimental setting. NWS meteorologists expressed that differing ways of communicating hazard information between each office, along with forecasting styles and workload, would change the way they go about producing critical hazard information to the public. Abstract Scientists at NOAA are testing a new tool that allows forecasters to communicate estimated probabilities of severe hazards (tornadoes, severe wind, and hail) as part of the Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) framework. In this study, we employ the embedded systems theory (EST)—a communication framework that analyzes small group workplace practices as products of group, organizational, and local dynamics—to understand how probabilistic hazard information (PHI) is produced and negotiated among multiple NWS weather forecast offices in an experimental setting. Gathering feedback from NWS meteorologists who participated in the 2020 Hazard Services (HS)-PHI Interoffice Collaboration experiment, we explored implications of local and interoffice collaboration while using this experimental tool. By using a qualitative thematic analysis, it was found that differing probability thresholds, forecasting styles, social dynamics, and workload will be social factors that developers should consider as they bring PHI toward operational readiness. Warning operations in this new paradigm were also implemented into the EST model to create a communication ecosystem for future weather hazard communication research. Significance Statement Meteorologists are currently exploring how to use probabilities to communicate life-saving information. From tornadoes to hail, a new type of probabilistic hazard information could fundamentally change the way that NWS meteorologists collaborate with one another when issuing weather products, especially near and along the boundaries of County Warning Areas. To explore potential collaboration challenges and solutions, we applied a communication framework and explored perceptions that NWS meteorologists had while using this new tool in an experimental setting. NWS meteorologists expressed that differing ways of communicating hazard information between each office, along with forecasting styles and workload, would change the way they go about producing critical hazard information to the public. |
Author | Stumpf, Gregory J. Trujillo-Falcón, Joseph E. Reedy, Justin Bates, Alyssa V. LaDue, James G. Klockow-McClain, Kimberly E. Berry, Kodi L. |
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References_xml | – year: 2015 ident: bib7 contributor: fullname: Galluppi, K. – volume: 41 start-page: 248 year: 1990 ident: bib28 article-title: Bona fide groups: A reconceptualization of groups in context contributor: fullname: Putnam, L. L. – year: 2019 ident: bib19 article-title: Visualization and communication of probabilistic lightning hazard information for a broad spectrum of end users contributor: fullname: Meyer, T. C. – start-page: 399 year: 2003 ident: bib31 contributor: fullname: Stohl, C. – year: 1990 ident: bib35 contributor: fullname: Wilson, G. L. – volume: 66 start-page: 610 year: 2014 ident: bib37 article-title: Ethnic and racial differences in tornado hazard perception, preparedness, and shelter lead time in Tuscaloosa contributor: fullname: Senkbeil, J. 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Snippet | Abstract Scientists at NOAA are testing a new tool that allows forecasters to communicate estimated probabilities of severe hazards (tornadoes, severe wind,... Scientists at NOAA are testing a new tool that allows forecasters to communicate estimated probabilities of severe hazards (tornadoes, severe wind, and hail)... |
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SubjectTerms | Collaboration Communication Community Cooperation Decision making Dynamics Embedded systems End users Environmental impact Forecasting Frameworks Hail Meteorologists Probability theory Qualitative analysis Social factors Statistical analysis Storms System theory Systems theory Tornadoes Weather Weather forecasting Weather hazards Workload |
Title | Creating a Communication Framework for FACETs: How Probabilistic Hazard Information Affected Warning Operations in NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed |
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