Estimation of seismicity parameters in spatial-temporal distribution for the Kumaun Himalaya region

• Published in: Journal of Earth System Science Vol. 134; no. 2; p. 73
• Main Authors: Pandey, Auchitya Kumar, Roy, Paresh Nath Singha
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Bangalore Springer Nature B.V 19.03.2025
• Subjects: Earthquake data; Earthquakes; Maximum likelihood method; Orogeny; Parameter estimation; Parameters; Seismic activity; Seismic hazard; Seismicity; Software; Spatial variations; Temporal distribution; Himalaya Mountains; Uttarakhand India; India
• ISSN: 0973-774X; 0253-4126; 0973-774X
• DOI: 10.1007/s12040-025-02548-8

The Kumaun Himalaya is a segment of the active orogenic Great Himalayan belt, which is a severe earthquake-prone area of the Indian subcontinent. Over recent years, the study area has been subject to a significant number of low to moderate earthquakes, indicating a considerable seismic risk for the region under examination. In this article, the earthquake data MW ≥ 2.4 from 1992 to 2018 are utilised for the analysis of seismicity parameters. The spatial variation of seismicity parameters is computed by utilising the Maximum-likelihood method. Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distribution plot shows that the values of hazard parameters a, b, and Mc-values are found to be at 4.71, 0.75 (±0.025) and 2.4, respectively in this study region. The above analysis helped to estimate seismicity parameter values that are found to be higher for the Main Central Thrust (MCT) zone. The return period of different magnitudes of earthquakes (M = 3.0, 4.0 and 5.0) is estimated at a period of 27 years for the Kumaun Himalaya region. Also, the annual probability of different magnitudes of earthquake occurrence was calculated during 1992–2018 for this study region.