The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions

Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050. Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disabil...

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Published inThe Lancet regional health. Western Pacific Vol. 49; p. 101138
Main Authors Goh, Rachel Sze Jen, Chong, Bryan, Jayabaskaran, Jayanth, Jauhari, Silingga Metta, Chan, Siew Pang, Kueh, Martin Tze Wah, Shankar, Kannan, Li, Henry, Chin, Yip Han, Kong, Gwyneth, Anand, Vickram Vijay, Chan, Keith Andrew, Sukmawati, Indah, Toh, Sue Anne, Muthiah, Mark, Wang, Jiong-Wei, Tse, Gary, Mehta, Anurag, Fong, Alan, Baskaran, Lohendran, Zhong, Liang, Yap, Jonathan, Yeo, Khung Keong, Hausenloy, Derek J., Tan, Jack Wei Chieh, Chao, Tze-Fan, Li, Yi-Heng, Lim, Shir Lynn, Chan, Koo Hui, Loh, Poay Huan, Chai, Ping, Yeo, Tiong Cheng, Low, Adrian F., Lee, Chi Hang, Foo, Roger, Tan, Huay Cheem, Yip, James, Rao, Sarita, Honda, Satoshi, Yasuda, Satoshi, Kajiya, Takashi, Goto, Shinya, Yan, Bryan P., Zhou, Xin, Figtree, Gemma A., Mamas, Mamas A., Kim, Yongcheol, Jeong, Young-Hoon, Kim, Moo Hyun, Park, Duk-Woo, Park, Seung-Jung, Richards, A Mark, Chan, Mark Y., Lip, Gregory Y.H., Chew, Nicholas W.S.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published England Elsevier Ltd 01.08.2024
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Abstract Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050. Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades. Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population). This forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor. This was supported by the NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03), National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MH 095:003/008-303), National University of Singapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine's Junior Academic Fellowship Scheme, NUHS Clinician Scientist Program (NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS) and the CArdiovascular DiseasE National Collaborative Enterprise (CADENCE) National Clinical Translational Program (MOH-001277-01).
AbstractList Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050. Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades. Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population). This forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor. This was supported by the NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03), National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MH 095:003/008-303), National University of Singapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine's Junior Academic Fellowship Scheme, NUHS Clinician Scientist Program (NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS) and the CArdiovascular DiseasE National Collaborative Enterprise (CADENCE) National Clinical Translational Program (MOH-001277-01).
Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050.BackgroundGiven the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050.Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades.MethodsData from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades.Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population).FindingsBetween 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population).This forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor.InterpretationThis forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor.This was supported by the NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03), National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MH 095:003/008-303), National University of Singapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine's Junior Academic Fellowship Scheme, NUHS Clinician Scientist Program (NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS) and the CArdiovascular DiseasE National Collaborative Enterprise (CADENCE) National Clinical Translational Program (MOH-001277-01).FundingThis was supported by the NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03), National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MH 095:003/008-303), National University of Singapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine's Junior Academic Fellowship Scheme, NUHS Clinician Scientist Program (NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS) and the CArdiovascular DiseasE National Collaborative Enterprise (CADENCE) National Clinical Translational Program (MOH-001277-01).
ArticleNumber 101138
Author Chan, Siew Pang
Jauhari, Silingga Metta
Kajiya, Takashi
Honda, Satoshi
Shankar, Kannan
Muthiah, Mark
Mamas, Mamas A.
Toh, Sue Anne
Low, Adrian F.
Fong, Alan
Figtree, Gemma A.
Chong, Bryan
Chan, Koo Hui
Goh, Rachel Sze Jen
Yasuda, Satoshi
Chao, Tze-Fan
Chew, Nicholas W.S.
Kong, Gwyneth
Mehta, Anurag
Zhou, Xin
Rao, Sarita
Chan, Mark Y.
Tse, Gary
Sukmawati, Indah
Goto, Shinya
Foo, Roger
Park, Seung-Jung
Li, Henry
Park, Duk-Woo
Loh, Poay Huan
Richards, A Mark
Baskaran, Lohendran
Jeong, Young-Hoon
Zhong, Liang
Hausenloy, Derek J.
Kueh, Martin Tze Wah
Yeo, Tiong Cheng
Chin, Yip Han
Chan, Keith Andrew
Yeo, Khung Keong
Tan, Huay Cheem
Li, Yi-Heng
Lee, Chi Hang
Yan, Bryan P.
Jayabaskaran, Jayanth
Kim, Moo Hyun
Wang, Jiong-Wei
Anand, Vickram Vijay
Yap, Jonathan
Tan, Jack Wei Chieh
Kim, Yongcheol
Lip, Gregory Y.H.
Lim, Shir Lynn
Chai, Ping
Yip, James
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IsScholarly true
Keywords Cardiovascular disease
Disability-adjusted life years
Asia
Mortality
Risk factors
Global burden
Language English
License This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license.
2024 The Author(s).
LinkModel OpenURL
MergedId FETCHMERGED-LOGICAL-c1563-ae2e0051d9dc0f4a0b4a15953199a6c8c3ba81e78069a1afa48e26eda90f85373
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0000-0002-7566-1626
0009-0008-5363-8952
0000-0002-1919-8016
OpenAccessLink http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101138
PMID 39100533
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PQPubID 23479
ParticipantIDs proquest_miscellaneous_3088560368
crossref_primary_10_1016_j_lanwpc_2024_101138
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elsevier_sciencedirect_doi_10_1016_j_lanwpc_2024_101138
PublicationCentury 2000
PublicationDate August 2024
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2024-08-00
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  year: 2024
  text: August 2024
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PublicationPlace England
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PublicationTitle The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific
PublicationTitleAlternate Lancet Reg Health West Pac
PublicationYear 2024
Publisher Elsevier Ltd
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Snippet Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025...
Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to...
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SubjectTerms Asia
Cardiovascular disease
Disability-adjusted life years
Global burden
Mortality
Risk factors
Title The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions
URI https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101138
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/39100533
https://www.proquest.com/docview/3088560368
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