Research and Analysis on Refined Precipitation Forecast Method of Highway during Flood Season in Gansu Province

• Published in: Meteorological and environmental research Vol. 6; no. 1; pp. 23 - 28
• Main Authors: Kang, Liu, Zhaorong, Li, Yousheng, Wang, Yu, Zhang, Ruihong, Yang, Jinmei, He, Dongmei, Wang, Chun, Yin
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Cranston Wu Chu (USA-China) Science and Culture Media Corporation 2015
• Subjects: Floods; High temperature; Highways; Hydrologic data; Mathematical models; Numerical prediction; Precipitation; Precipitation (meteorological); Seasons; Statistical analysis; Traffic accidents & safety; Weather forecasting; 多元线性回归方程; 数值预报产品; 汛期; 甘肃省; 降水资料; 预报方法; 预测效果; 高速公路; Gansu China; China; China, People's Rep., Gansu Prov
• ISSN: 2152-3940

In this paper, T639 global spectral model numerical forecast products issued by numerical prediction center of China Meteorological Administration and precipitation data at 676 regional stations of Gansu during flood season were used firstly for interpretation. Then, through the establishment of multiple linear stepwise regression equation, daily precipitation forecast with the time interval of 6 h during 0 -72 h in May, 2013 in Gansu Province was obtained. By precipitation forecast verification analysis, it was found that the precipitation forecast in Hexi region and central Gansu Province had best effect; forecast in some places of east Hedong region had relatively good effect; part of the city or state forecast effect in the plateau slope zone was relatively lower. The refined precipitation forecast had certain reference and use value in the post-production Gansu Province highway forecasting during flood season.