Additionality and Avoiding Grassland Conversion in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States
Grassland conversion into croplands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States is a persistent hurdle toward mitigating climate change. Several carbon offset markets have been designed to reward landowners for keeping lands in their native state when incentives to convert are high. We explor...
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Published in | Rangeland ecology & management Vol. 73; no. 2; pp. 201 - 215 |
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Main Authors | , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
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Lawrence
the Society for Range Management
01.03.2020
Elsevier Inc Elsevier Limited |
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Abstract | Grassland conversion into croplands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States is a persistent hurdle toward mitigating climate change. Several carbon offset markets have been designed to reward landowners for keeping lands in their native state when incentives to convert are high. We explore the role of a critical determinant in such programs: the additionality threshold. This factor, if appropriately selected and applied, reduces the participation of landowners that would choose to enroll in the program but would not have converted their land under business-as-usual conditions. Using a simple model relating land quality and land use to economic rents, we simulate potential avoided grassland conversion offset market participation across a range of cropland over pasture rent difference threshold (RDT) values. We find mitigation potential and simulated program costs are widely variable depending on this parameter and assume carbon prices: across the five states studied, the full range is 0.41 tCO2e • yr–1 (0.2 RDT, $10 •$t–1 carbon price) to 4.6 million tCO2e • yr–1 (1.2 RDT, $40 tCO2e • t–1 carbon price), assuming average land use change emissions values for pastureland in the region. Total program costs for these offsets also exhibit a wide range, spanning $2–$120 million • yr–1 depending on parameterization. Results across the full range of RDTs (0.2–2) demonstrate a tendency toward higher RDTs for achieving high levels of avoided emissions, with cost efficiency being maximized in the 1.4–1.8 range for RDTs. A state-level breakdown of results demonstrate the importance of modeling economic trends in land use and setting region-specific additionality thresholds for avoided grassland conversion offsets. Although our study is specific to grassland conversion in one region of the United States, similar offset markets exist elsewhere, where additionality concerns are paramount. We believe our framework can be useful in improving protocol design. |
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AbstractList | Grassland conversion into croplands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States is a persistent hurdle toward mitigating climate change. Several carbon offset markets have been designed to reward landowners for keeping lands in their native state when incentives to convert are high. We explore the role of a critical determinant in such programs: the additionality threshold. This factor, if appropriately selected and applied, reduces the participation of landowners that would choose to enroll in the program but would not have converted their land under business-as-usual conditions. Using a simple model relating land quality and land use to economic rents, we simulate potential avoided grassland conversion offset market participation across a range of cropland over pasture rent difference threshold (RDT) values. We find mitigation potential and simulated program costs are widely variable depending on this parameter and assume carbon prices: across the five states studied, the full range is 0.41 tCO2e • yr−1 (0.2 RDT, $10 •·t−1 carbon price) to 4.6 million tCO2e • yr−1 (1.2 RDT, $40 tCO2e • t−1 carbon price), assuming average land use change emissions values for pastureland in the region. Total program costs for these offsets also exhibit a wide range, spanning $2−$120 million • yr−1 depending on parameterization. Results across the full range of RDTs (0.2−2) demonstrate a tendency toward higher RDTs for achieving high levels of avoided emissions, with cost efficiency being maximized in the 1.4−1.8 range for RDTs. A state-level breakdown of results demonstrate the importance of modeling economic trends in land use and setting region-specific additionality thresholds for avoided grassland conversion offsets. Although our study is specific to grassland conversion in one region of the United States, similar offset markets exist elsewhere, where additionality concerns are paramount. We believe our framework can be useful in improving protocol design. Grassland conversion into croplands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States is a persistent hurdle toward mitigating climate change. Several carbon offset markets have been designed to reward landowners for keeping lands in their native state when incentives to convert are high. We explore the role of a critical determinant in such programs: the additionality threshold. This factor, if appropriately selected and applied, reduces the participation of landowners that would choose to enroll in the program but would not have converted their land under business-as-usual conditions. Using a simple model relating land quality and land use to economic rents, we simulate potential avoided grassland conversion offset market participation across a range of cropland over pasture rent difference threshold (RDT) values. We find mitigation potential and simulated program costs are widely variable depending on this parameter and assume carbon prices: across the five states studied, the full range is 0.41 tCO2e • yr–1 (0.2 RDT, $10 •$t–1 carbon price) to 4.6 million tCO2e • yr–1 (1.2 RDT, $40 tCO2e • t–1 carbon price), assuming average land use change emissions values for pastureland in the region. Total program costs for these offsets also exhibit a wide range, spanning $2–$120 million • yr–1 depending on parameterization. Results across the full range of RDTs (0.2–2) demonstrate a tendency toward higher RDTs for achieving high levels of avoided emissions, with cost efficiency being maximized in the 1.4–1.8 range for RDTs. A state-level breakdown of results demonstrate the importance of modeling economic trends in land use and setting region-specific additionality thresholds for avoided grassland conversion offsets. Although our study is specific to grassland conversion in one region of the United States, similar offset markets exist elsewhere, where additionality concerns are paramount. We believe our framework can be useful in improving protocol design. |
Author | Aramayo-Lipa, Lindsay Parkhurst, Robert Baker, Justin S. Cajka, Jamie Proville, Jeremy Latané, Annah |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Justin S. surname: Baker fullname: Baker, Justin S. organization: RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USA – sequence: 2 givenname: Jeremy surname: Proville fullname: Proville, Jeremy organization: Environmental Defense Fund, New York, NY 10010, USA – sequence: 3 givenname: Annah surname: Latané fullname: Latané, Annah organization: RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USA – sequence: 4 givenname: Jamie surname: Cajka fullname: Cajka, Jamie organization: RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USA – sequence: 5 givenname: Lindsay surname: Aramayo-Lipa fullname: Aramayo-Lipa, Lindsay organization: RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USA – sequence: 6 givenname: Robert surname: Parkhurst fullname: Parkhurst, Robert organization: Environmental Defense Fund, New York, NY 10010, USA |
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Copyright | 2019 Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of The Society for Range Management. 2019 Copyright Elsevier Limited Mar 2020 |
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Keywords | additionality avoided grassland conversion GHG offset Prairie Pothole Region |
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Estimating additional and windfall effects of French agro-environmental schemes by DID-matching publication-title: Journal of Environmental Economics and Management doi: 10.1016/j.jeem.2012.09.003 contributor: fullname: Chabé-Ferret |
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Snippet | Grassland conversion into croplands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States is a persistent hurdle toward mitigating climate change. Several carbon... |
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SubjectTerms | additionality Agricultural commodities Agricultural land Agricultural management avoided grassland conversion Carbon Carbon offsets Climate change Computer simulation Conservation Conversion Costs Design Econometrics Economic models Emissions Environmental economics GHG offset Grasslands Incentives Land use Landowners Mitigation Monetary incentives Offsets Parameterization Participation Pasture Prairie Pothole Region Protocol Reinforcement |
Title | Additionality and Avoiding Grassland Conversion in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States |
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