Poverty and the WTO Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda

• Main Authors: Winters, L. Alan, Hertel, Thomas W
• Format: eBook Book
• Language: English
• Published: Herndon World Bank Publications 2005; The World Bank; Washington, DC: World Bank and Palgrave Macmillan
• Edition: 1
• Series: Trade and Development
• Subjects: ACCESSION AGREEMENT; ACCESSION COMMITMENTS; ACCESSION NEGOTIATIONS; ACCESSION TO THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION; AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION; AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS; AGRICULTURAL SUPPORT; AGRICULTURE; ANTIDUMPING; ANTIDUMPING ACTIONS; AVERAGE COSTS; BASE YEAR; BENCHMARK; BILATERAL AGREEMENT; BILATERAL AGREEMENTS; BUSINESS SERVICES; CAPITAL INCREASE; CAPITAL STOCK; COMMODITIES; CONSTANT MARGINAL COSTS; CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE; CONSUMERS; CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES; CONSUMPTION GOODS; CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT; COUNTRY OF ORIGIN; CURRENT ACCOUNT; CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS; DEMAND CURVE; Developing countries; DEVELOPMENT AGENDA; DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS; DIVIDENDS; DOHA DEVELOPMENT AGENDA; DOMESTIC FIRMS; DOMESTIC SUPPORT; Economic conditions; ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY; ECONOMIC GROWTH; ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS; ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE; ECONOMIC POLICIES; Economic policy; ECONOMIC THEORY; ECONOMICS LITERATURE; ELASTICITY; ELIMINATION OF TARIFFS; EQUILIBRIUM; EXPENDITURES; EXPORT MARKETS; EXPORT PRICE; EXPORT SUBSIDIES; EXPORT SUBSIDY; EXPORT TAX; EXPORTS; EXTERNALITIES; EXTERNALITY; FACTOR ENDOWMENTS; FACTOR SHARES; FOOD INDUSTRY; FOREIGN BANKS; FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT; FOREIGN FIRMS; FOREIGN GOODS; FOREIGN INVESTORS; FREE TRADE; FREE TRADE IN GOODS; GDP; GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL; GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELING; GLOBAL FREE TRADE; GLOBAL TRADE; GLOBAL TRADE ANALYSIS; GROWTH RATE; IMPACT OF TRADE; IMPACT OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION; IMPORT BARRIERS; IMPORT PRICES; IMPROVED MARKET ACCESS; INCOME; INCOME DISTRIBUTION; INCREASED COMPETITION; INCREASING RETURNS; INCREASING RETURNS TO SCALE; INDIVIDUAL HOUSEHOLDS; INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES; INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY; INTERMEDIATE GOODS; INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT; INTERNATIONAL TRADE; INVESTMENT CLIMATE; JOINT VENTURES; LIBERALIZATION OF TRADE; MANUFACTURING SECTORS; MARGINAL COST; MARKET ACCESS; MONOPOLISTIC COMPETITION; MONOPOLY RENTS; MULTINATIONAL FIRMS; OPENNESS; OPTIMIZATION; PER CAPITA INCOME; POLICY CHANGES; POLICY IMPLICATIONS; POOR COUNTRIES; Poverty; POVERTY REDUCTION; PRICE INDEX; PRIMARY FACTORS; PRIMARY FACTORS OF PRODUCTION; PROCESS OF ADJUSTMENT; PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION; PRODUCTIVITY; PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH; PROFITABILITY; REDUCTION OF BARRIERS; REGULATORY BARRIERS; RETURN ON CAPITAL; RURAL HOUSEHOLDS; SAFETY NETS; SERVICE SECTOR; SERVICE SECTORS; SERVICES LIBERALIZATION; SERVICES SECTOR; SERVICES SECTORS; TARIFF BARRIERS; TARIFF CUTS; TARIFF RATES; TARIFF REDUCTION; TARIFF REDUCTIONS; TAX RATES; TELECOMMUNICATIONS; TERMS OF TRADE; TERMS OF TRADE EFFECTS; TERMS OF TRADE LOSS; TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY; TRADE; TRADE IN SERVICES; TRADE LIBERALIZATION; TRADE POLICY; World Trade Organization; POVERTY IMPACTS; DOHA DEVELOPMENT AGENDA; WTO; POVERTY; POVERTY REDUCTION

Poverty reduction is deemed to be a centerpiece of the Doha Development Agenda currently being negotiated under the auspices of the WTO. Yet there is considerable debate about the poverty impacts of such an agreement. Some are convinced it will increase poverty, while others are equally convinced th...

Table of Contents:

• Overview of Shocks
• Analytical Framework: A Macro-Micro Model for Indonesia -- Specifications of the Indonesia CGE model -- Specification of the Indonesia microsimulation model -- Implementation and Analysis of Trade Policy Shocks -- Examining Alternative Scenarios -- Tax Replacement Scheme -- Labor Markets -- Monte Carlo Analysis -- Summary and Conclusions -- Notes -- References -- PART 5 Fiscal Replacement of Lost Tariff Revenue -- 12 The Poverty Impacts of the Doha Round in Cameroon: The Role of Tax Policy -- Summary -- Introduction -- Poverty and Trade Background -- Poverty Trends During 1996-2001 -- Trends in Cameroon's Trade -- Modeling Features and Data -- Impacts of the Doha Scenario -- Macro and Sectoral Effects -- Household Income Effects -- Poverty Effects -- World and Domestic Free-Trade Simulations -- Macro Effects -- Sectoral Effects, the Labor Market, and Reallocation of Resources -- ROW Liberalization Scenario -- Cameroon Unilateral Liberalization Scenario -- Combined Full Liberalization of ROW and Cameroon -- Household Income Effects -- Poverty Effects -- Decomposing Impacts of Own-Liberalization -- The Contribution of TOT Effects to Overall Impacts at the Macro and Sectoral Levels -- Contribution of TOT Deterioration to Overall Poverty Impacts of Unilateral Liberalization -- Evaluating the Replacement Tax Alternatives -- An Overview of the VAT in Cameroon -- Comparative Macro and Sectoral Effects -- Comparative Household Income Effects -- Comparative Poverty Effects -- Concluding Remarks -- Notes -- References -- 13 Doha Scenarios, Trade Reforms, and Poverty in the Philippines: A CGE Analysis -- Summary -- Introduction -- Background -- Agricultural Stagnation -- Post-World War II Trade Policies -- Import Substitution -- Export Taxes on Agriculture -- Overvaluation of Exchange Rate -- Government Intervention -- Philippine Trade Reform
• Linking Macro Results to the Village Model -- The Case Study Village -- The Village Equilibrium Model -- Full Liberalization Impacts -- The Impact of Price Changes with Full Liberalization -- The Household as a Supplier of Labor: The Impact of Increasing Off-Farm Employment -- Combining Price and Employment Effects -- Doha Impacts -- Impacts on Inequality -- Conclusions -- Notes -- References -- PART 4 A Focus on Labor Markets -- 9 Structural Change and Poverty Reduction in Brazil: The Impact of the Doha Round -- Summary -- Introduction -- Background and Motivation -- The Modeling Framework -- The Macro Model -- Production -- Income Distribution and Absorption -- International Trade -- Factor Markets -- Model Closure -- Growth Equations -- The MS Model -- Who Moves Out of Agriculture? -- Brazil in the Next Decade: A Baseline Scenario -- Macroeconomic Characteristics of the Baseline -- Distributional and Poverty Results for the BaU Scenario -- Macroeconomic Impacts of Trade Reforms -- Distributional and Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform -- Conclusions -- Notes -- References -- 10 Impacts of the DDA on China: The Role of Labor Markets and Complementary Education Reforms -- Summary -- Introduction -- The CGE Model -- Household Behavior -- Rural-Urban Migration -- Production, Exports, and Imports -- Recursive-Dynamic and Steady-State, Comparative Static Closures -- Modeling Education -- The Role of Education in the Model -- Model Calibration and Choice of Parameters -- Simulations -- Simulation Design -- Economywide Impacts of Multilateral Trade Liberalization -- Sector Impacts -- Household Impacts -- Impact of Investing in Rural Education -- Conclusions and Policy Implications -- Notes -- References -- 11 The Social Impact of a WTO Agreement in Indonesia -- Summary -- Introduction -- Economic and Policy Environment
• Cover -- Title Page -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Contributors -- Abbreviations and Acronyms -- PART 1 Evaluation of the Doha Development Agenda -- 1 Poverty Impacts of a WTO Agreement: Synthesis and Overview -- Summary -- Introduction and Motivation -- Choice of Methodologies -- The Global Impact of the Doha Development Agenda -- Price Transmission -- The Disaggregated Impact on Households -- Labor Markets -- Interactions with Tax Policies -- Cross-Country Comparisons -- Effects on Productivity and Economic Growth -- Summary and Conclusions -- Notes -- References -- 2 Scenarios for Global Trade Reform -- Introduction -- What Is at Stake? -- What the Doha Declaration and July 2004 Framework Decision Promise -- Agricultural Market Access -- Overview of Agricultural Tariffs -- Tiered Formulas -- Agricultural Domestic Support -- Agricultural Export Subsidies -- Nonagricultural Market Access -- Implications of Doha for Market Access -- Conclusions -- Notes -- References -- 3 Assessing the World Market Impacts of Multilateral Trade Reforms -- Introduction -- Modeling World Price and Volume Changes -- Choice of Model -- Model Description -- Model Validation -- Results -- Tariff Landscapes in the Focus Countries -- Full Liberalization -- Doha Scenario -- Communicating Global Results to the National Models -- 3 Annex A: Shocking a Single-Country CGE Model with Export Prices and Quantities from a Global Model -- Notes -- References -- PART 2 Price Linkages -- 4 Multilateral Trade Liberalization and Mexican Households: The Effect of the Doha Development Agenda -- Summary -- Introduction -- Poverty in Mexico -- Exposure of the Poor to International Price Shocks -- Net Sales Position of the Poor -- Doha Implications for Mexico -- Empirical Framework -- International Prices and Domestic Prices -- Production and Export Supply -- Labor Earnings
• Changes in Household Welfare -- Simulation Results -- Doha Scenario -- Complementary Reform Scenario 1 ("Doha Plus") -- Complementary Reform Scenario 2 ("Doha Plus-Plus") -- Full Liberalization -- Summary -- Conclusions -- Notes -- References -- 5 The Doha Trade Round and Mozambique -- Summary -- Introduction -- Mozambique -- Modeling the Implications of Doha -- The Mozambique CGE Model -- Behavioral Specification -- Operation of Markets -- Macro Closure -- More Novel Features -- The Mozambique Microsimulation Model -- Structure of the Mozambican Economy -- Inequality -- Simulations and Results -- Limitations of the Analysis -- Price Transmission -- Revenue Replacement -- Downward-Sloping Export Demand Functions -- Conclusions -- Notes -- References -- PART 3 Household Impacts of Price Changes -- 6 The WTO Doha Round, Cotton Sector Dynamics, and Poverty Trends in Zambia -- Summary -- Introduction -- Cotton Reforms and Poverty Trends in Zambia -- Cotton Reforms -- International Markets and World Prices -- Poverty Trends -- Cotton Income and Higher Export Prices -- Cotton Production and Household Outcomes -- The Method -- Monetary Outcomes -- Nonmonetary Outcomes -- Conclusions -- Notes -- References -- 7 The Doha Round, Poverty, and Regional Inequality in Brazil -- Summary -- Introduction -- Poverty and Income Distribution Evolution in Brazil: An Overview -- Methodology -- Overview of the Modeling Approach -- Model Running Procedures and Highlights -- The Base Year Picture -- Model Closure -- Results -- The CGE Model Results -- Poverty and Income Distribution Results -- Concluding Remarks -- Notes -- References -- 8 Growing Together or Growing Apart? A Village-Level Study of the Impact of the Doha Round on Rural China -- Summary -- Introduction -- A Household Perspective on General Equilibrium Modeling -- Models and Data
• Poverty Profile in the Philippines -- Model Specification -- Basic Structure -- Model Closure -- Economic Structure -- Definition of the Scenarios -- Doha Results -- Macro and Sectoral Effects -- Incomes and Poverty -- Full-Liberalization Simulations -- Macro and Sectoral Effects -- Incomes and Poverty -- Disaggregating the Full Liberalization Scenario -- Macro and Sectoral Effects -- Incomes and Poverty -- Conclusion -- Notes -- References -- PART 6 Cross-Country Analysis -- 14 The Effects of a Prospective Multilateral Trade Reform on Poverty in Developing Countries -- Summary -- Introduction -- Data -- Stratification of Households According to Main Source of Income -- Model and Method -- Scenarios and Experimental Design -- Trade Reform Scenarios -- Decomposing Differences between Doha and Full Liberalization -- Factor Mobility Assumptions -- Results -- Price Results -- Poverty Results -- Decomposition of the Differences in Poverty Effects of the Doha and Full-Liberalization Scenarios -- Conclusion -- Note -- References -- PART 7 The Toha Development Agenda, Growth, and Poverty -- 15 Implications of WTO Agreements and Unilateral Trade Policy Reforms for Poverty in Bangladesh: Short- versus Long-Run Impacts -- Summary -- Introduction -- An Overview of the Issues -- Agricultural Trade Liberalization -- Liberalization of Textile and Garments Trade -- Free Movement of Natural Persons -- Unilateral Trade Liberalization -- Methodology -- Model Features -- Static Module -- Dynamic Module -- The Bangladesh SAM for 1999-2000 -- The 1999-2000 HIES -- Simulation Design and Analysis -- The Doha Scenario -- Overview of Shocks -- Macro Effects -- Sectoral Effects -- Welfare Effects -- Poverty Effects -- Conclusion -- ROW Free Trade -- Overview of Shocks -- Macro Effects -- Sectoral Effects -- Welfare Effects -- Conclusion -- Unilateral Trade Liberalization