The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China
China's growth factor China, since mid-2010 the world's second biggest economy and tipped to become the biggest in a few decades, has tremendous climatic and ecological diversity. The likely impact of China's economic expansion on the global climate has been extensively studied but li...
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| Published in | Nature (London) Vol. 467; no. 7311; pp. 43 - 51 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
London
Nature Publishing Group UK
02.09.2010
Nature Publishing Group |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | China's growth factor
China, since mid-2010 the world's second biggest economy and tipped to become the biggest in a few decades, has tremendous climatic and ecological diversity. The likely impact of China's economic expansion on the global climate has been extensively studied but little is known about the reverse case — the susceptibility of natural and managed systems in China to climate change. In a Review, Shilong Piao
et al
. assess the impacts of historical and future climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. They find that in spite of clear trends in climate (especially temperature), overall impacts are overshadowed by natural variability and uncertainties in crop responses and projected climate, especially precipitation. In a best-case scenario, crop production is constant, whereas the worst-case scenario suggests that production could fall by about 20% by 2050.
China has tremendous climatic and ecological diversity, so the impacts of climate change on natural and managed systems might likewise be expected to be diverse. Yet so far systematic studies have been rare. Here, the impacts of historical and future climate change on water resources and agriculture in China are assessed. Despite clear trends in climate, the overall impacts are overshadowed by natural variability and uncertainties in crop responses and projected climate, especially precipitation.
China is the world’s most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, much research has focused on China’s influence on climate change but somewhat less has been written about the impact of climate change on China. China experienced explosive economic growth in recent decades, but with only 7% of the world’s arable land available to feed 22% of the world’s population, China's economy may be vulnerable to climate change itself. We find, however, that notwithstanding the clear warming that has occurred in China in recent decades, current understanding does not allow a clear assessment of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on China’s water resources and agriculture and therefore China’s ability to feed its people. To reach a more definitive conclusion, future work must improve regional climate simulations—especially of precipitation—and develop a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged responses of crops to changes in climate, diseases, pests and atmospheric constituents. |
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| AbstractList | China is the world's most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, much research has focused on China's influence on climate change but somewhat less has been written about the impact of climate change on China. China experienced explosive economic growth in recent decades, but with only 7% of the world's arable land available to feed 22% of the world's population, China's economy may be vulnerable to climate change itself. We find, however, that notwithstanding the clear warming that has occurred in China in recent decades, current understanding does not allow a clear assessment of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on China's water resources and agriculture and therefore China's ability to feed its people. To reach a more definitive conclusion, future work must improve regional climate simulations-especially of precipitation-and develop a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged responses of crops to changes in climate, diseases, pests and atmospheric constituents.China is the world's most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, much research has focused on China's influence on climate change but somewhat less has been written about the impact of climate change on China. China experienced explosive economic growth in recent decades, but with only 7% of the world's arable land available to feed 22% of the world's population, China's economy may be vulnerable to climate change itself. We find, however, that notwithstanding the clear warming that has occurred in China in recent decades, current understanding does not allow a clear assessment of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on China's water resources and agriculture and therefore China's ability to feed its people. To reach a more definitive conclusion, future work must improve regional climate simulations-especially of precipitation-and develop a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged responses of crops to changes in climate, diseases, pests and atmospheric constituents. China's growth factor China, since mid-2010 the world's second biggest economy and tipped to become the biggest in a few decades, has tremendous climatic and ecological diversity. The likely impact of China's economic expansion on the global climate has been extensively studied but little is known about the reverse case — the susceptibility of natural and managed systems in China to climate change. In a Review, Shilong Piao et al . assess the impacts of historical and future climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. They find that in spite of clear trends in climate (especially temperature), overall impacts are overshadowed by natural variability and uncertainties in crop responses and projected climate, especially precipitation. In a best-case scenario, crop production is constant, whereas the worst-case scenario suggests that production could fall by about 20% by 2050. China has tremendous climatic and ecological diversity, so the impacts of climate change on natural and managed systems might likewise be expected to be diverse. Yet so far systematic studies have been rare. Here, the impacts of historical and future climate change on water resources and agriculture in China are assessed. Despite clear trends in climate, the overall impacts are overshadowed by natural variability and uncertainties in crop responses and projected climate, especially precipitation. China is the world’s most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, much research has focused on China’s influence on climate change but somewhat less has been written about the impact of climate change on China. China experienced explosive economic growth in recent decades, but with only 7% of the world’s arable land available to feed 22% of the world’s population, China's economy may be vulnerable to climate change itself. We find, however, that notwithstanding the clear warming that has occurred in China in recent decades, current understanding does not allow a clear assessment of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on China’s water resources and agriculture and therefore China’s ability to feed its people. To reach a more definitive conclusion, future work must improve regional climate simulations—especially of precipitation—and develop a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged responses of crops to changes in climate, diseases, pests and atmospheric constituents. China is the world's most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, much research has focused on China's influence on climate change but somewhat less has been written about the impact of climate change on China. China experienced explosive economic growth in recent decades, but with only 7% of the world's arable land available to feed 22% of the world's population, China's economy may be vulnerable to climate change itself. We find, however, that notwithstanding the clear warming that has occurred in China in recent decades, current understanding does not allow a clear assessment of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on China's water resources and agriculture and therefore China's ability to feed its people. To reach a more definitive conclusion, future work must improve regional climate simulations--especially of precipitation--and develop a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged responses of crops to changes in climate, diseases, pests and atmospheric constituents China is the world's most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, much research has focused on China's influence on climate change but somewhat less has been written about the impact of climate change on China. China experienced explosive economic growth in recent decades, but with only 7% of the world's arable land available to feed 22% of the world's population, China's economy may be vulnerable to climate change itself. We find, however, that notwithstanding the clear warming that has occurred in China in recent decades, current understanding does not allow a clear assessment of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on China's water resources and agriculture and therefore China's ability to feed its people. To reach a more definitive conclusion, future work must improve regional climate simulations-especially of precipitation-and develop a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged responses of crops to changes in climate, diseases, pests and atmospheric constituents. China is the world's most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, much research has focused on China's influence on climate change but somewhat less has been written about the impact of climate change on China. China experienced explosive economic growth in recent decades, but with only 7% of the world's arable land available to feed 22% of the world's population, China's economy may be vulnerable to climate change itself. We find, however, that notwithstanding the clear warming that has occurred in China in recent decades, current understanding does not allow a clear assessment of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on China's water resources and agriculture and therefore China's ability to feed its people. To reach a more definitive conclusion, future work must improve regional climate simulations-especially of precipitation-and develop a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged responses of crops to changes in climate, diseases, pests and atmospheric constituents. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT] |
| Audience | Academic |
| Author | Tan, Kun Yu, Yongqiang Ma, Yuecun Fang, Jingyun Huang, Yao Zhang, Tianyi Shen, Zehao Zhou, Liping Peng, Shushi Li, Junsheng Ciais, Philippe Liu, Hongyan Piao, Shilong Liu, Chunzhen Friedlingstein, Pierre Ding, Yihui |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Shilong surname: Piao fullname: Piao, Shilong email: slpiao@pku.edu.cn organization: Department of Ecology, Department of Geography, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University – sequence: 2 givenname: Philippe surname: Ciais fullname: Ciais, Philippe organization: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Batiment 709, CE L'Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette, F-91191, France – sequence: 3 givenname: Yao surname: Huang fullname: Huang, Yao organization: State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China – sequence: 4 givenname: Zehao surname: Shen fullname: Shen, Zehao organization: Department of Ecology, Department of Geography, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University – sequence: 5 givenname: Shushi surname: Peng fullname: Peng, Shushi organization: Department of Ecology, Department of Geography, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University – sequence: 6 givenname: Junsheng surname: Li fullname: Li, Junsheng organization: Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences – sequence: 7 givenname: Liping surname: Zhou fullname: Zhou, Liping organization: Department of Ecology, Department of Geography, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University – sequence: 8 givenname: Hongyan surname: Liu fullname: Liu, Hongyan organization: Department of Ecology, Department of Geography, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University – sequence: 9 givenname: Yuecun surname: Ma fullname: Ma, Yuecun organization: Department of Ecology, Department of Geography, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University – sequence: 10 givenname: Yihui surname: Ding fullname: Ding, Yihui organization: Laboratory of Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, No. 46 Zhongguancun Na Da Jie, Beijing 100081, China – sequence: 11 givenname: Pierre surname: Friedlingstein fullname: Friedlingstein, Pierre organization: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Batiment 709, CE L'Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette, F-91191, France , Department of Earth Sciences, QUEST, University of Bristol – sequence: 12 givenname: Chunzhen surname: Liu fullname: Liu, Chunzhen organization: China Water Information Center (Hydrological Bureau), Lane 2 Baiguang Road – sequence: 13 givenname: Kun surname: Tan fullname: Tan, Kun organization: Department of Ecology, Department of Geography, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University – sequence: 14 givenname: Yongqiang surname: Yu fullname: Yu, Yongqiang organization: State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China – sequence: 15 givenname: Tianyi surname: Zhang fullname: Zhang, Tianyi organization: State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China – sequence: 16 givenname: Jingyun surname: Fang fullname: Fang, Jingyun organization: Department of Ecology, Department of Geography, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University |
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| Snippet | China's growth factor
China, since mid-2010 the world's second biggest economy and tipped to become the biggest in a few decades, has tremendous climatic and... China is the world's most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, much research has focused on China's influence on climate... |
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| SubjectTerms | 704/106/694 704/844/2739 Agricultural and forest climatology and meteorology. Irrigation. Drainage Agricultural and forest meteorology Agricultural industry Agricultural land Agriculture Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions Anthropogenic factors Aquatic resources Biological and medical sciences China Climate Change Climatic changes Climatology Conservation of Natural Resources Drought Earth Sciences Economic aspects Economic Development Economic growth Environmental aspects Environmental impact Environmental Sciences Farm buildings Floods Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology General agronomy. Plant production Global Changes Greenhouse gases Humanities and Social Sciences Industry forecasts Influence Irrigation multidisciplinary Population Dynamics Precipitation Protection and preservation Rain review-article Science Science (multidisciplinary) Sciences of the Universe Trends Water Water resources Water shortages |
| Title | The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China |
| URI | https://link.springer.com/article/10.1038/nature09364 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20811450 https://www.proquest.com/docview/763169046 https://www.proquest.com/docview/754002418 https://cea.hal.science/cea-00906665 |
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