Valid Error Bars for Neural Weather Models using Conformal Prediction

• Main Authors: Gopakumar, Vignesh, Oskarrson, Joel, Gray, Ander, Zanisi, Lorenzo, Pamela, Stanislas, Giles, Daniel, Kusner, Matt, Deisenroth, Marc
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: 20.06.2024
• Subjects: Computer Science - Learning

Neural weather models have shown immense potential as inexpensive and accurate alternatives to physics-based models. However, most models trained to perform weather forecasting do not quantify the uncertainty associated with their forecasts. This limits the trust in the model and the usefulness of t...