The persistence of common-ratio effects in multiple-play decisions
Abstract People often make more rational choices between monetary prospects when their choices will be played out many times rather than just once. For example, previous research has shown that the certainty effect and the possibility effect (two common-ratio effects that violate expected utility th...
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Published in | Judgment and Decision Making Vol. 11; no. 4; pp. 361 - 379 |
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Main Authors | , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
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Tallahassee
Society for Judgment and Decision Making
01.07.2016
Society for Judgment & Decision Making Cambridge University Press |
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Abstract | Abstract People often make more rational choices between monetary prospects when their choices will be played out many times rather than just once. For example, previous research has shown that the certainty effect and the possibility effect (two common-ratio effects that violate expected utility theory) are eliminated in multiple-play decisions. This finding is challenged by seven new studies ( N = 2391) and two small meta-analyses. Results indicate that, on average, certainty and possibility effects are reduced but not eliminated in multiple-play decisions. Moreover, in our within-participants studies, the certainty and possibility choice patterns almost always remained the modal or majority patterns. Our primary results were not reliably affected by prompts that encouraged a long-run perspective, by participants’ insight into long-run payoffs, or by participants’ numeracy. The persistence of common-ratio effects suggests that the oft-cited benefits of multiple plays for the rationality of decision makers’ choices may be smaller than previously realized. |
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AbstractList | People often make more rational choices between monetary prospects when their choices will be played out many times rather than just once. For example, previous research has shown that the certainty effect and the possibility effect (two common-ratio effects that violate expected utility theory) are eliminated in multiple-play decisions. This finding is challenged by seven new studies (N = 2391) and two small meta-analyses. Results indicate that, on average, certainty and possibility effects are reduced but not eliminated in multiple-play decisions. Moreover, in our within-participants studies, the certainty and possibility choice patterns almost always remained the modal or majority patterns. Our primary results were not reliably affected by prompts that encouraged a long-run perspective, by participants' insight into long-run payoffs, or by participants' numeracy. The persistence of common-ratio effects suggests that the oft-cited benefits of multiple plays for the rationality of decision makers' choices may be smaller than previously realized. Keywords: common-ratio effect, reverse common-ratio effect, certainty effect, possibility effect, multiple play, repeated play. People often make more rational choices between monetary prospects when their choices will be played out many times rather than just once. For example, previous research has shown that the certainty effect and the possibility effect (two common-ratio effects that violate expected utility theory) are eliminated in multiple-play decisions. This finding is challenged by seven new studies (N = 2391) and two small meta-analyses. Results indicate that, on average, certainty and possibility effects are reduced but not eliminated in multiple-play decisions. Moreover, in our within-participants studies, the certainty and possibility choice patterns almost always remained the modal or majority patterns. Our primary results were not reliably affected by prompts that encouraged a long-run perspective, by participants' insight into long-run payoffs, or by participants' numeracy. The persistence of common-ratio effects suggests that the oft-cited benefits of multiple plays for the rationality of decision makers' choices may be smaller than previously realized. People often make more rational choices between monetary prospects when their choices will be played out many times rather than just once. For example, previous research has shown that the certainty effect and the possibility effect (two common-ratio effects that violate expected utility theory) are eliminated in multiple-play decisions. This finding is challenged by seven new studies (N = 2391) and two small meta-analyses. Results indicate that, on average, certainty and possibility effects are reduced but not eliminated in multiple-play decisions. Moreover, in our within-participants studies, the certainty and possibility choice patterns almost always remained the modal or majority patterns. Our primary results were not reliably affected by prompts that encouraged a long-run perspective, by participantsâ[euro](TM) insight into long-run payoffs, or by participantsâ[euro](TM) numeracy. The persistence of common-ratio effects suggests that the oft-cited benefits of multiple plays for the rationality of decision makersâ[euro](TM) choices may be smaller than previously realized. Abstract People often make more rational choices between monetary prospects when their choices will be played out many times rather than just once. For example, previous research has shown that the certainty effect and the possibility effect (two common-ratio effects that violate expected utility theory) are eliminated in multiple-play decisions. This finding is challenged by seven new studies ( N = 2391) and two small meta-analyses. Results indicate that, on average, certainty and possibility effects are reduced but not eliminated in multiple-play decisions. Moreover, in our within-participants studies, the certainty and possibility choice patterns almost always remained the modal or majority patterns. Our primary results were not reliably affected by prompts that encouraged a long-run perspective, by participants’ insight into long-run payoffs, or by participants’ numeracy. The persistence of common-ratio effects suggests that the oft-cited benefits of multiple plays for the rationality of decision makers’ choices may be smaller than previously realized. |
Audience | Academic |
Author | Dan R. Schley Breann M. Erford Michael N. Karim Seth A. Miller Jonghun Sun Michael L. DeKay Mandy B. Lanyon |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Michael L. surname: DeKay fullname: DeKay, Michael L. – sequence: 2 givenname: Dan R. surname: Schley fullname: Schley, Dan R. – sequence: 3 givenname: Seth A. surname: Miller fullname: Miller, Seth A. – sequence: 4 givenname: Breann M. surname: Erford fullname: Erford, Breann M. – sequence: 5 givenname: Jonghun surname: Sun fullname: Sun, Jonghun – sequence: 6 givenname: Michael N. surname: Karim fullname: Karim, Michael N. – sequence: 7 givenname: Mandy B. surname: Lanyon fullname: Lanyon, Mandy B. |
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Snippet | Abstract People often make more rational choices between monetary prospects when their choices will be played out many times rather than just once. For... People often make more rational choices between monetary prospects when their choices will be played out many times rather than just once. For example,... |
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SubjectTerms | Analysis certainty effect common-ratio effect Decision making Expected utility Methods multiple play possibility effect Rationality repeated play.NAKeywords reverse common-ratio effect Studies |
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Title | The persistence of common-ratio effects in multiple-play decisions |
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