Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change
Deficiencies of micronutrients, including essential trace elements, affect up to 3 billion people worldwide. The dietary availability of trace elements is determined largely by their soil concentrations. Until now, the mechanisms governing soil concentrations have been evaluated in small-scale studi...
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| Published in | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 114; no. 11; pp. 2848 - 2853 |
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| Main Authors | , , , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
United States
National Academy of Sciences
14.03.2017
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | Deficiencies of micronutrients, including essential trace elements, affect up to 3 billion people worldwide. The dietary availability of trace elements is determined largely by their soil concentrations. Until now, the mechanisms governing soil concentrations have been evaluated in small-scale studies, which identify soil physicochemical properties as governing variables. However, global concentrations of trace elements and the factors controlling their distributions are virtually unknown. We used 33,241 soil data points to model recent (1980–1999) global distributions of Selenium (Se), an essential trace element that is required for humans.Worldwide, up to one in seven people have been estimated to have low dietary Se intake. Contrary to small-scale studies, soil Se concentrations were dominated by climate–soil interactions. Using moderate climate-change scenarios for 2080–2099, we predicted that changes in climate and soil organic carbon content will lead to overall decreased soil Se concentrations, particularly in agricultural areas; these decreases could increase the prevalence of Se deficiency. The importance of climate–soil interactions to Se distributions suggests that other trace elements with similar retentionmechanismswill be similarly affected by climate change. |
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| AbstractList | The trace element selenium is essential for human health and is required in a narrow dietary concentration range. Insufficient selenium intake has been estimated to affect up to 1 billion people worldwide. Dietary selenium availability is controlled by soil–plant interactions, but the mechanisms governing its broad-scale soil distributions are largely unknown. Using data-mining techniques, we modeled recent (1980–1999) distributions and identified climate–soil interactions as main controlling factors. Furthermore, using moderate climate change projections, we predicted future (2080–2099) soil selenium losses from 58% of modeled areas (mean loss = 8.4%). Predicted losses from croplands were even higher, with 66% of croplands predicted to lose 8.7% selenium. These losses could increase the worldwide prevalence of selenium deficiency.
Deficiencies of micronutrients, including essential trace elements, affect up to 3 billion people worldwide. The dietary availability of trace elements is determined largely by their soil concentrations. Until now, the mechanisms governing soil concentrations have been evaluated in small-scale studies, which identify soil physicochemical properties as governing variables. However, global concentrations of trace elements and the factors controlling their distributions are virtually unknown. We used 33,241 soil data points to model recent (1980–1999) global distributions of Selenium (Se), an essential trace element that is required for humans. Worldwide, up to one in seven people have been estimated to have low dietary Se intake. Contrary to small-scale studies, soil Se concentrations were dominated by climate–soil interactions. Using moderate climate-change scenarios for 2080–2099, we predicted that changes in climate and soil organic carbon content will lead to overall decreased soil Se concentrations, particularly in agricultural areas; these decreases could increase the prevalence of Se deficiency. The importance of climate–soil interactions to Se distributions suggests that other trace elements with similar retention mechanisms will be similarly affected by climate change. Deficiencies of micronutrients, including essential trace elements, affect up to 3 billion people worldwide. The dietary availability of trace elements is determined largely by their soil concentrations. Until now, the mechanisms governing soil concentrations have been evaluated in small-scale studies, which identify soil physicochemical properties as governing variables. However, global concentrations of trace elements and the factors controlling their distributions are virtually unknown. We used 33,241 soil data points to model recent (1980-1999) global distributions of Selenium (Se), an essential trace element that is required for humans. Worldwide, up to one in seven people have been estimated to have low dietary Se intake. Contrary to small-scale studies, soil Se concentrations were dominated by climate-soil interactions. Using moderate climate-change scenarios for 2080-2099, we predicted that changes in climate and soil organic carbon content will lead to overall decreased soil Se concentrations, particularly in agricultural areas; these decreases could increase the prevalence of Se deficiency. The importance of climate-soil interactions to Se distributions suggests that other trace elements with similar retention mechanisms will be similarly affected by climate change. Deficiencies of micronutrients, including essential trace elements, affect up to 3 billion people worldwide. The dietary availability of trace elements is determined largely by their soil concentrations. Until now, the mechanisms governing soil concentrations have been evaluated in small-scale studies, which identify soil physicochemical properties as governing variables. However, global concentrations of trace elements and the factors controlling their distributions are virtually unknown. We used 33,241 soil data points to model recent (1980–1999) global distributions of Selenium (Se), an essential trace element that is required for humans.Worldwide, up to one in seven people have been estimated to have low dietary Se intake. Contrary to small-scale studies, soil Se concentrations were dominated by climate–soil interactions. Using moderate climate-change scenarios for 2080–2099, we predicted that changes in climate and soil organic carbon content will lead to overall decreased soil Se concentrations, particularly in agricultural areas; these decreases could increase the prevalence of Se deficiency. The importance of climate–soil interactions to Se distributions suggests that other trace elements with similar retentionmechanismswill be similarly affected by climate change. |
| Author | Droz, Boris Seneviratne, Sonia I. Greve, Peter Jones, Gerrad D. Smith, Pete McGrath, Steve P. Winkel, Lenny H. E. Gottschalk, Pia Poffet, Deyan |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Gerrad D. surname: Jones fullname: Jones, Gerrad D. organization: Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, 8600 Duebendorf, Switzerland – sequence: 2 givenname: Boris surname: Droz fullname: Droz, Boris organization: Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, 8600 Duebendorf, Switzerland – sequence: 3 givenname: Peter surname: Greve fullname: Greve, Peter organization: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland – sequence: 4 givenname: Pia surname: Gottschalk fullname: Gottschalk, Pia organization: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany – sequence: 5 givenname: Deyan surname: Poffet fullname: Poffet, Deyan organization: Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland – sequence: 6 givenname: Steve P. surname: McGrath fullname: McGrath, Steve P. organization: Department of Sustainable Soils and Grassland Systems, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden AL5 2JQ, United Kingdom – sequence: 7 givenname: Sonia I. surname: Seneviratne fullname: Seneviratne, Sonia I. organization: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland – sequence: 8 givenname: Pete surname: Smith fullname: Smith, Pete organization: Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB24 3UU, United Kingdom – sequence: 9 givenname: Lenny H. E. surname: Winkel fullname: Winkel, Lenny H. E. organization: Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28223487$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| Keywords | prediction selenium soils global distribution climate change |
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| Notes | SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-1 content type line 14 Edited by Jerome Nriagu, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, and accepted by Editorial Board Member David W. Schindler January 6, 2017 (received for review July 15, 2016) Author contributions: G.D.J., B.D., and L.H.E.W. designed research; G.D.J., B.D., D.P., and L.H.E.W. performed research; G.D.J., B.D., P. Greve, P. Gottschalk, S.P.M., S.I.S., P.S., and L.H.E.W. contributed data/soil samples; G.D.J., B.D., D.P., and L.H.E.W. analyzed data; and G.D.J., B.D., D.P., and L.H.E.W. wrote the paper with technical input from all authors. |
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| SubjectTerms | Climate Change Environmental impact Environmental Monitoring Humans Micronutrients Organic carbon Physical chemistry Physical Sciences Physicochemical properties Prognosis Risk Factors Selenium Selenium - chemistry Selenium - metabolism Soil - chemistry Soil fertility Soil Pollutants - chemistry Soil Pollutants - isolation & purification Soil properties Trace elements Trace Elements - chemistry Trace Elements - metabolism Vitamin deficiency |
| Title | Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change |
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