Climate Change Identification and Projections

Under certain scenarios on the subject of CO2 emissions, by the end of the century the atmospheric concentration could triple its pre-industrial level. The very large numerical models intended to anticipate the corresponding climate evolutions are designed and quantified from the laws of physics. Ho...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author de Larminat, Philippe
Format eBook
LanguageEnglish
Published Newark John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated 2014
Wiley-Blackwell
Edition1
SeriesFocus series in ecological science
Subjects
Climatic changes
Online AccessGet full text
ISBN1848217773
9781848217775
DOI10.1002/9781119053989

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Abstract Under certain scenarios on the subject of CO2 emissions, by the end of the century the atmospheric concentration could triple its pre-industrial level. The very large numerical models intended to anticipate the corresponding climate evolutions are designed and quantified from the laws of physics. However, little is generally known about these: genesis of clouds, terms of the greenhouse effect, solar activity intervention, etc.  This book deals with the issue of climate modeling in a different way: using proven techniques for identifying black box-type models. Taking climate observations from throughout the millennia, the global models obtained are validated statistically and confirmed by the resulting simulations. This book thus brings constructive elements that can be reproduced by anyone adept at numerical simulation, whether an expert climatologist or not. It is accessible to any reader interested in the issues of climate change. 
AbstractList Under certain scenarios on the subject of CO2 emissions, by the end of the century the atmospheric concentration could triple its pre-industrial level. The very large numerical models intended to anticipate the corresponding climate evolutions are designed and quantified from the laws of physics. However, little is generally known about these: genesis of clouds, terms of the greenhouse effect, solar activity intervention, etc.  This book deals with the issue of climate modeling in a different way: using proven techniques for identifying black box-type models. Taking climate observations from throughout the millennia, the global models obtained are validated statistically and confirmed by the resulting simulations. This book thus brings constructive elements that can be reproduced by anyone adept at numerical simulation, whether an expert climatologist or not. It is accessible to any reader interested in the issues of climate change. 
Under certain scenarios on the subject of CO2 emissions, by the end of the century the atmospheric concentration could triple its pre-industrial level. The very large numerical models intended to anticipate the corresponding climate evolutions are designed and quantified from the laws of physics. However, little is generally known about these: genesis of clouds, terms of the greenhouse effect, solar activity intervention, etc. This book deals with the issue of climate modeling in a different way: using proven techniques for identifying black box-type models. Taking climate observations from throughout the millennia, the global models obtained are validated statistically and confirmed by the resulting simulations. This book thus brings constructive elements that can be reproduced by anyone adept at numerical simulation, whether an expert climatologist or not. It is accessible to any reader interested in the issues of climate change.
Author de Larminat, Philippe
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Snippet Under certain scenarios on the subject of CO2 emissions, by the end of the century the atmospheric concentration could triple its pre-industrial level. The...
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Subtitle Identification and Projections
TableOfContents 10.4. A disaster scenario -- 11: Short-term Predictions -- 11.1. Decadal time scale predictions by GCM -- 11.2. The climate's natural variability -- 11.3. State estimate and prediction -- 11.4. Decadal time scale predictions by EBM -- 11.5. A posteriori predictions -- 12: Conclusions -- 12.1. On the identification -- 12.2. Climate sensitivity -- 12.3. Solar activity -- 12.4. Predictive capacity -- 12.5. The climate change in question -- 12.6. Prospects -- Bibliography -- Index
Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Contents -- 1: Introduction -- 1.1. Context -- 1.2. Identification -- 1.3. Expectations and results -- 1.4. Contents of the work -- 2: Climatic Data -- 2.1. Sources -- 2.2. Global temperature -- 2.2.1. Modern temperatures -- 2.2.2. Pre-industrial temperature -- 2.2.3. Paleotemperatures -- 2.3. Concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere -- 2.4. Solar activity -- 2.5. Volcanic activity -- 3: The War of the Graphs -- 3.1. History -- 3.2. Inconsistent controversies -- 3.3. Usable data -- 4: Formulating an Energy Balance Model -- 4.1. State models and transmittance -- 4.2. Structure of an energy balance model -- 4.3. Specificity of EBMs -- 4.4. Dynamic parametrization -- 5: Presumed Parameters -- 5.1. Terminology -- 5.2. Climate sensitivity Sclim -- 5.3. Coefficient of radiative forcing α1 -- 5.4. The climate feedback coefficient λG -- 5.5. Sensitivity to irradiance S2 -- 5.6. Sensitivity to volcanic activity S3 -- 5.7. Climate or anthropogenic sensitivity -- 5.8. Review of uncertainties -- 6: Identification Method -- 6.1. The current state of affairs -- 6.2. Output error method -- 6.3. Estimating the error variance -- 6.4. Hypothesis test and confidence regions -- 6.5. Conditions of application -- 7: Partial Results -- 7.1. A selection of data -- 7.2. Free identification -- 7.3. Forced identifications -- 7.4. Statistical analysis -- 8: Overall Results -- 8.1. Preliminary comments -- 8.2. Regions and intervals of confidence -- 8.3. Hypothesis test -- 8.4. Comments -- 9: Historic Minuscule Simulations -- 9.1. Overview of IPCC simulations -- 9.2. Comparative simulations -- 9.3. Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) -- 9.4. Comparative radiative forcing -- 10: Long-term Climate Projections -- 10.1. IPCC scenarios and projections -- 10.2. EBM compatible scenarios -- 10.3. Long-term projections
Title Climate Change
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