Global coastal wetland change under sea-level rise and related stresses: The DIVA Wetland Change Model
The Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment Wetland Change Model (DIVA_WCM) comprises a dataset of contemporary global coastal wetland stocks (estimated at 756×103km2 (in 2011)), mapped to a one-dimensional global database, and a model of the macro-scale controls on wetland response to sea-leve...
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| Published in | Global and planetary change Vol. 139; pp. 15 - 30 |
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| Main Authors | , , , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Elsevier B.V
01.04.2016
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | The Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment Wetland Change Model (DIVA_WCM) comprises a dataset of contemporary global coastal wetland stocks (estimated at 756×103km2 (in 2011)), mapped to a one-dimensional global database, and a model of the macro-scale controls on wetland response to sea-level rise. Three key drivers of wetland response to sea-level rise are considered: 1) rate of sea-level rise relative to tidal range; 2) lateral accommodation space; and 3) sediment supply. The model is tuned by expert knowledge, parameterised with quantitative data where possible, and validated against mapping associated with two large-scale mangrove and saltmarsh vulnerability studies. It is applied across 12,148 coastal segments (mean length 85km) to the year 2100. The model provides better-informed macro-scale projections of likely patterns of future coastal wetland losses across a range of sea-level rise scenarios and varying assumptions about the construction of coastal dikes to prevent sea flooding (as dikes limit lateral accommodation space and cause coastal squeeze). With 50cm of sea-level rise by 2100, the model predicts a loss of 46–59% of global coastal wetland stocks. A global coastal wetland loss of 78% is estimated under high sea-level rise (110cm by 2100) accompanied by maximum dike construction. The primary driver for high vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise is coastal squeeze, a consequence of long-term coastal protection strategies. Under low sea-level rise (29cm by 2100) losses do not exceed ca. 50% of the total stock, even for the same adverse dike construction assumptions. The model results confirm that the widespread paradigm that wetlands subject to a micro-tidal regime are likely to be more vulnerable to loss than macro-tidal environments. Countering these potential losses will require both climate mitigation (a global response) to minimise sea-level rise and maximisation of accommodation space and sediment supply (a regional response) on low-lying coasts.
•Database identifies estimated (in 2011) 756×103km2 global coastal wetland stock.•With 50cm of sea-level rise by 2100, losses of 46–59% of global coastal wetlands•Under high sea-level rise (110cm by 2100), global wetland losses may reach 78%.•Under low sea-level rise, micro-tidal wetlands more vulnerable to loss•Wetland loss likely to be exacerbated by non-climate related, anthropogenic impacts |
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| AbstractList | The Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment Wetland Change Model (DIVA_WCM) comprises a dataset of contemporary global coastal wetland stocks (estimated at 756103 km2 (in 2011)), mapped to a one-dimensional global database, and a model of the macro-scale controls on wetland response to sea-level rise. Three key drivers of wetland response to sea-level rise are considered: 1) rate of sea-level rise relative to tidal range; 2) lateral accommodation space; and 3) sediment supply. The model is tuned by expert knowledge, parameterised with quantitative data where possible, and validated against mapping associated with two large-scale mangrove and saltmarsh vulnerability studies. It is applied across 12,148 coastal segments (mean length 85km) to the year 2100. The model provides better-informed macro-scale projections of likely patterns of future coastal wetland losses across a range of sea-level rise scenarios and varying assumptions about the construction of coastal dikes to prevent sea flooding (as dikes limit lateral accommodation space and cause coastal squeeze). With 50cm of sea-level rise by 2100, the model predicts a loss of 46-59% of global coastal wetland stocks. A global coastal wetland loss of 78% is estimated under high sea-level rise (110cm by 2100) accompanied by maximum dike construction. The primary driver for high vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise is coastal squeeze, a consequence of long-term coastal protection strategies. Under low sea-level rise (29cm by 2100) losses do not exceed ca. 50% of the total stock, even for the same adverse dike construction assumptions. The model results confirm that the widespread paradigm that wetlands subject to a micro-tidal regime are likely to be more vulnerable to loss than macro-tidal environments. Countering these potential losses will require both climate mitigation (a global response) to minimise sea-level rise and maximisation of accommodation space and sediment supply (a regional response) on low-lying coasts. The Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment Wetland Change Model (DIVA_WCM) comprises a dataset of contemporary global coastal wetland stocks (estimated at 756×103km2 (in 2011)), mapped to a one-dimensional global database, and a model of the macro-scale controls on wetland response to sea-level rise. Three key drivers of wetland response to sea-level rise are considered: 1) rate of sea-level rise relative to tidal range; 2) lateral accommodation space; and 3) sediment supply. The model is tuned by expert knowledge, parameterised with quantitative data where possible, and validated against mapping associated with two large-scale mangrove and saltmarsh vulnerability studies. It is applied across 12,148 coastal segments (mean length 85km) to the year 2100. The model provides better-informed macro-scale projections of likely patterns of future coastal wetland losses across a range of sea-level rise scenarios and varying assumptions about the construction of coastal dikes to prevent sea flooding (as dikes limit lateral accommodation space and cause coastal squeeze). With 50cm of sea-level rise by 2100, the model predicts a loss of 46–59% of global coastal wetland stocks. A global coastal wetland loss of 78% is estimated under high sea-level rise (110cm by 2100) accompanied by maximum dike construction. The primary driver for high vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise is coastal squeeze, a consequence of long-term coastal protection strategies. Under low sea-level rise (29cm by 2100) losses do not exceed ca. 50% of the total stock, even for the same adverse dike construction assumptions. The model results confirm that the widespread paradigm that wetlands subject to a micro-tidal regime are likely to be more vulnerable to loss than macro-tidal environments. Countering these potential losses will require both climate mitigation (a global response) to minimise sea-level rise and maximisation of accommodation space and sediment supply (a regional response) on low-lying coasts. •Database identifies estimated (in 2011) 756×103km2 global coastal wetland stock.•With 50cm of sea-level rise by 2100, losses of 46–59% of global coastal wetlands•Under high sea-level rise (110cm by 2100), global wetland losses may reach 78%.•Under low sea-level rise, micro-tidal wetlands more vulnerable to loss•Wetland loss likely to be exacerbated by non-climate related, anthropogenic impacts The Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment Wetland Change Model (DIVA_WCM) comprises a dataset of contemporary global coastal wetland stocks (estimated at 756×10³km² (in 2011)), mapped to a one-dimensional global database, and a model of the macro-scale controls on wetland response to sea-level rise. Three key drivers of wetland response to sea-level rise are considered: 1) rate of sea-level rise relative to tidal range; 2) lateral accommodation space; and 3) sediment supply. The model is tuned by expert knowledge, parameterised with quantitative data where possible, and validated against mapping associated with two large-scale mangrove and saltmarsh vulnerability studies. It is applied across 12,148 coastal segments (mean length 85km) to the year 2100. The model provides better-informed macro-scale projections of likely patterns of future coastal wetland losses across a range of sea-level rise scenarios and varying assumptions about the construction of coastal dikes to prevent sea flooding (as dikes limit lateral accommodation space and cause coastal squeeze). With 50cm of sea-level rise by 2100, the model predicts a loss of 46–59% of global coastal wetland stocks. A global coastal wetland loss of 78% is estimated under high sea-level rise (110cm by 2100) accompanied by maximum dike construction. The primary driver for high vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise is coastal squeeze, a consequence of long-term coastal protection strategies. Under low sea-level rise (29cm by 2100) losses do not exceed ca. 50% of the total stock, even for the same adverse dike construction assumptions. The model results confirm that the widespread paradigm that wetlands subject to a micro-tidal regime are likely to be more vulnerable to loss than macro-tidal environments. Countering these potential losses will require both climate mitigation (a global response) to minimise sea-level rise and maximisation of accommodation space and sediment supply (a regional response) on low-lying coasts. |
| Author | Schuerch, Mark Hinkel, Jochen Lincke, Daniel Spencer, Thomas McFadden, Loraine Nicholls, Robert J. Vafeidis, A.T. Reef, Ruth Brown, Sally |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Thomas surname: Spencer fullname: Spencer, Thomas email: ts111@cam.ac.uk organization: Cambridge Coastal Research Unit, Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, Cambridge CB2 3EN, UK – sequence: 2 givenname: Mark surname: Schuerch fullname: Schuerch, Mark organization: Geographisches Institut, Ludewig-Meyn-Str. 14, 24098 Kiel, Germany – sequence: 3 givenname: Robert J. surname: Nicholls fullname: Nicholls, Robert J. organization: Faculty of Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK – sequence: 4 givenname: Jochen surname: Hinkel fullname: Hinkel, Jochen organization: Global Climate Forum e.V. (GCF), Neue Promenade 6, 10178, Berlin, Germany – sequence: 5 givenname: Daniel surname: Lincke fullname: Lincke, Daniel organization: Global Climate Forum e.V. (GCF), Neue Promenade 6, 10178, Berlin, Germany – sequence: 6 givenname: A.T. surname: Vafeidis fullname: Vafeidis, A.T. organization: Geographisches Institut, Ludewig-Meyn-Str. 14, 24098 Kiel, Germany – sequence: 7 givenname: Ruth surname: Reef fullname: Reef, Ruth organization: Cambridge Coastal Research Unit, Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, Cambridge CB2 3EN, UK – sequence: 8 givenname: Loraine surname: McFadden fullname: McFadden, Loraine organization: Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, The Burroughs Hendon, London NW4 4BT, UK – sequence: 9 givenname: Sally surname: Brown fullname: Brown, Sally organization: Faculty of Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK |
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| Title | Global coastal wetland change under sea-level rise and related stresses: The DIVA Wetland Change Model |
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