Forecasting seismicity rates in western Turkey as inferred from earthquake catalog and stressing history
The spatio-temporal variation in seismicity in western Turkey since the late 1970s is investigated through a rate/state model, which considers the stressing history to forecast the reference seismicity rate evolution. The basic catalog was divided according to specific criteria into four subsets, wh...
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Published in | Natural hazards (Dordrecht) Vol. 73; no. 3; pp. 1817 - 1842 |
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Main Authors | , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
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Dordrecht
Springer Netherlands
01.09.2014
Springer Springer Nature B.V |
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Abstract | The spatio-temporal variation in seismicity in western Turkey since the late 1970s is investigated through a rate/state model, which considers the stressing history to forecast the reference seismicity rate evolution. The basic catalog was divided according to specific criteria into four subsets, which correspond to areas exhibiting almost identical seismotectonic features. Completeness magnitude and reference seismicity rates are individually calculated for each subset. The forecasting periods are selected to be the inter-seismic time intervals between successive strong (
M
≥ 5.8) earthquakes. The Coulomb stress changes associated with their coseismic slip are considered, along with the constant stressing rate to alter the rates of earthquake production. These rates are expressed by a probability density function and smoothed over the study area with different degrees of smoothing. The influence of the rate/state parameters in the model efficiency is explored by evaluating the Pearson linear correlation coefficient between simulated and observed earthquake occurrence rates along with its 95 % confidence limits. Application of different parameter values is attempted for the sensitivity of the calculated seismicity rates and their fit to the real data to be tested. Despite the ambiguities and the difficulties involved in the experimental parameter value determination, the results demonstrate that the present formulation and the available datasets are sufficient enough to contribute to seismic hazard assessment starting from a point such far back in time. |
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AbstractList | The spatio-temporal variation in seismicity in western Turkey since the late 1970s is investigated through a rate/state model, which considers the stressing history to forecast the reference seismicity rate evolution. The basic catalog was divided according to specific criteria into four subsets, which correspond to areas exhibiting almost identical seismotectonic features. Completeness magnitude and reference seismicity rates are individually calculated for each subset. The forecasting periods are selected to be the inter-seismic time intervals between successive strong (M greater than or equal to 5.8) earthquakes. The Coulomb stress changes associated with their coseismic slip are considered, along with the constant stressing rate to alter the rates of earthquake production. These rates are expressed by a probability density function and smoothed over the study area with different degrees of smoothing. The influence of the rate/state parameters in the model efficiency is explored by evaluating the Pearson linear correlation coefficient between simulated and observed earthquake occurrence rates along with its 95 % confidence limits. Application of different parameter values is attempted for the sensitivity of the calculated seismicity rates and their fit to the real data to be tested. Despite the ambiguities and the difficulties involved in the experimental parameter value determination, the results demonstrate that the present formulation and the available datasets are sufficient enough to contribute to seismic hazard assessment starting from a point such far back in time. The spatio-temporal variation in seismicity in western Turkey since the late 1970s is investigated through a rate/state model, which considers the stressing history to forecast the reference seismicity rate evolution. The basic catalog was divided according to specific criteria into four subsets, which correspond to areas exhibiting almost identical seismotectonic features. Completeness magnitude and reference seismicity rates are individually calculated for each subset. The forecasting periods are selected to be the inter-seismic time intervals between successive strong ( M ≥ 5.8) earthquakes. The Coulomb stress changes associated with their coseismic slip are considered, along with the constant stressing rate to alter the rates of earthquake production. These rates are expressed by a probability density function and smoothed over the study area with different degrees of smoothing. The influence of the rate/state parameters in the model efficiency is explored by evaluating the Pearson linear correlation coefficient between simulated and observed earthquake occurrence rates along with its 95 % confidence limits. Application of different parameter values is attempted for the sensitivity of the calculated seismicity rates and their fit to the real data to be tested. Despite the ambiguities and the difficulties involved in the experimental parameter value determination, the results demonstrate that the present formulation and the available datasets are sufficient enough to contribute to seismic hazard assessment starting from a point such far back in time. |
Author | Karakostas, Vasileios Orlecka-Sikora, Beata Papadimitriou, Eleftheria Leptokaropoulos, Konstantinos |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Konstantinos surname: Leptokaropoulos fullname: Leptokaropoulos, Konstantinos email: kleptoka@igf.edu.pl, kleptoka@geo.auth.gr organization: Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki – sequence: 2 givenname: Eleftheria surname: Papadimitriou fullname: Papadimitriou, Eleftheria organization: Aristotle University of Thessaloniki – sequence: 3 givenname: Beata surname: Orlecka-Sikora fullname: Orlecka-Sikora, Beata organization: Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences – sequence: 4 givenname: Vasileios surname: Karakostas fullname: Karakostas, Vasileios organization: Aristotle University of Thessaloniki |
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CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jog_2018_01_009 crossref_primary_10_1080_19475705_2017_1369168 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_qsa_2023_100099 |
Cites_doi | 10.1016/j.tecto.2006.08.003 10.1029/1999JB900094 10.1029/98EO00426 10.1029/93JB02581 10.1029/92JB00017 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05337.x 10.1029/1996JB900351 10.1046/j.0956-540x.2001.01486.x 10.1785/0120000841 10.1016/0191-8141(93)90077-N 10.1016/j.tecto.2008.04.017 10.1029/98JB01576 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb05321.x 10.1073/pnas.93.9.3787 10.1029/98JB00793 10.1785/0120050067 10.1016/S0040-1951(98)00056-0 10.1029/2003JB002527 10.1029/98JB01491 10.1029/98JB00765 10.1029/2000JB900119 10.1214/10-AOS799 10.1029/2007JB005336 10.1029/2008JB006000 10.1029/JB076i035p08517 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1972.tb02351.x 10.1016/S0985-3111(01)01066-X 10.1029/TC003i007p00693 10.1029/2010JB007532 10.1016/j.tecto.2012.03.037 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb04638.x 10.1029/2001JB000294 10.1038/45144 10.1007/978-1-4899-3324-9 10.1029/2000JB000138 10.1016/S0764-4442(01)02023-7 10.1029/2009JB006838 10.1029/2005JB004051 10.1029/2008JB006011 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04228.x 10.1029/2004JB003245 10.1029/2004JB003386 10.1029/2004JB003415 10.1029/2003JB002667 10.1029/98JB00573 10.1785/0120120174 10.12681/bgsg.16538 10.1007/s00024-010-0085-1 10.1029/2000JB900081 10.1029/2007JB005356 |
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Keywords | Coulomb stress changes Earthquake forecasting Rate and state modeling Seismicity rates stress models efficiency seismotectonics time variations earthquakes slip catalogs correlation coefficient probability density function seismicity |
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SubjectTerms | Analysis Civil Engineering Correlation coefficient Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Earth, ocean, space Earthquakes Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics Environmental Management Exact sciences and technology Geophysics/Geodesy Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Hydrogeology Natural Hazards Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc Original Paper Seismic activity Seismic hazard Seismology Studies |
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Title | Forecasting seismicity rates in western Turkey as inferred from earthquake catalog and stressing history |
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