Multiscale fracturing as a key to forecasting volcanic eruptions

• Published in: Journal of volcanology and geothermal research Vol. 125; no. 3; pp. 271 - 289
• Main Author: Kilburn, Christopher R.J.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Lausanne Elsevier B.V 20.07.2003; Amsterdam Elsevier; New York, NY
• Subjects: Boltzmann distribution; Crystalline rocks; Earth sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics; eruption forecasting; Exact sciences and technology; fracture mechanics; Igneous and metamorphic rocks petrology, volcanic processes, magmas; Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc; slow cracking; Montserrat; Philippine Islands; Antilles; West Indies; Lesser Antilles; Far East; Leeward Islands; Boltzmann distribution; eruption forecasting; slow cracking; fracture mechanics; extension faults; overpressure; eruption forcasting; frequency; Bolizmann distribution; country rocks; fluctuations; deformation; mechanism; fractures; energy; models; andesites; volcanic rocks; eruptions; igneous rocks; magmas; indicators; monitoring; Caribbean region; fracturing; Asia; prediction; stress fields; seismicity

Among volcanoes reawakening after long repose intervals, the final approach to eruption (∼1–10 days) is usually characterised by accelerating rates of seismicity. The observed patterns are consistent with the slow extension of faults, which continue to grow until they connect a pre-existing array of...