Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw
The permafrost zone is expected to be a substantial carbon source to the atmosphere, yet large-scale models currently only simulate gradual changes in seasonally thawed soil. Abrupt thaw will probably occur in <20% of the permafrost zone but could affect half of permafrost carbon through collapsi...
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| Published in | Nature geoscience Vol. 13; no. 2; pp. 138 - 143 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
London
Nature Publishing Group UK
01.02.2020
Nature Publishing Group |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | The permafrost zone is expected to be a substantial carbon source to the atmosphere, yet large-scale models currently only simulate gradual changes in seasonally thawed soil. Abrupt thaw will probably occur in <20% of the permafrost zone but could affect half of permafrost carbon through collapsing ground, rapid erosion and landslides. Here, we synthesize the best available information and develop inventory models to simulate abrupt thaw impacts on permafrost carbon balance. Emissions across 2.5 million km
2
of abrupt thaw could provide a similar climate feedback as gradual thaw emissions from the entire 18 million km
2
permafrost region under the warming projection of Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. While models forecast that gradual thaw may lead to net ecosystem carbon uptake under projections of Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, abrupt thaw emissions are likely to offset this potential carbon sink. Active hillslope erosional features will occupy 3% of abrupt thaw terrain by 2300 but emit one-third of abrupt thaw carbon losses. Thaw lakes and wetlands are methane hot spots but their carbon release is partially offset by slowly regrowing vegetation. After considering abrupt thaw stabilization, lake drainage and soil carbon uptake by vegetation regrowth, we conclude that models considering only gradual permafrost thaw are substantially underestimating carbon emissions from thawing permafrost.
Analyses of inventory models under two climate change projection scenarios suggest that carbon emissions from abrupt thaw of permafrost through ground collapse, erosion and landslides could contribute significantly to the overall permafrost carbon balance. |
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| AbstractList | The permafrost zone is expected to be a substantial carbon source to the atmosphere, yet large-scale models currently only simulate gradual changes in seasonally thawed soil. Abrupt thaw will probably occur in <20% of the permafrost zone but could affect half of permafrost carbon through collapsing ground, rapid erosion and landslides. Here, we synthesize the best available information and develop inventory models to simulate abrupt thaw impacts on permafrost carbon balance. Emissions across 2.5 million km2 of abrupt thaw could provide a similar climate feedback as gradual thaw emissions from the entire 18 million km2 permafrost region under the warming projection of Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. While models forecast that gradual thaw may lead to net ecosystem carbon uptake under projections of Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, abrupt thaw emissions are likely to offset this potential carbon sink. Active hillslope erosional features will occupy 3% of abrupt thaw terrain by 2300 but emit one-third of abrupt thaw carbon losses. Thaw lakes and wetlands are methane hot spots but their carbon release is partially offset by slowly regrowing vegetation. After considering abrupt thaw stabilization, lake drainage and soil carbon uptake by vegetation regrowth, we conclude that models considering only gradual permafrost thaw are substantially underestimating carbon emissions from thawing permafrost.Analyses of inventory models under two climate change projection scenarios suggest that carbon emissions from abrupt thaw of permafrost through ground collapse, erosion and landslides could contribute significantly to the overall permafrost carbon balance. The permafrost zone is expected to be a substantial carbon source to the atmosphere, yet large-scale models currently only simulate gradual changes in seasonally thawed soil. Abrupt thaw will probably occur in <20% of the permafrost zone but could affect half of permafrost carbon through collapsing ground, rapid erosion and landslides. Here, we synthesize the best available information and develop inventory models to simulate abrupt thaw impacts on permafrost carbon balance. Emissions across 2.5 million km 2 of abrupt thaw could provide a similar climate feedback as gradual thaw emissions from the entire 18 million km 2 permafrost region under the warming projection of Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. While models forecast that gradual thaw may lead to net ecosystem carbon uptake under projections of Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, abrupt thaw emissions are likely to offset this potential carbon sink. Active hillslope erosional features will occupy 3% of abrupt thaw terrain by 2300 but emit one-third of abrupt thaw carbon losses. Thaw lakes and wetlands are methane hot spots but their carbon release is partially offset by slowly regrowing vegetation. After considering abrupt thaw stabilization, lake drainage and soil carbon uptake by vegetation regrowth, we conclude that models considering only gradual permafrost thaw are substantially underestimating carbon emissions from thawing permafrost. Analyses of inventory models under two climate change projection scenarios suggest that carbon emissions from abrupt thaw of permafrost through ground collapse, erosion and landslides could contribute significantly to the overall permafrost carbon balance. The permafrost zone is expected to be a substantial carbon source to the atmosphere, yet large-scale models currently only simulate gradual changes in seasonally thawed soil. Abrupt thaw will probably occur in <20% of the permafrost zone but could affect half of permafrost carbon through collapsing ground, rapid erosion and landslides. Here, we synthesize the best available information and develop inventory models to simulate abrupt thaw impacts on permafrost carbon balance. Emissions across 2.5 million km(2) of abrupt thaw could provide a similar climate feedback as gradual thaw emissions from the entire 18 million km(2) permafrost region under the warming projection of Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. While models forecast that gradual thaw may lead to net ecosystem carbon uptake under projections of Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, abrupt thaw emissions are likely to offset this potential carbon sink. Active hillslope erosional features will occupy 3% of abrupt thaw terrain by 2300 but emit one-third of abrupt thaw carbon losses. Thaw lakes and wetlands are methane hot spots but their carbon release is partially offset by slowly regrowing vegetation. After considering abrupt thaw stabilization, lake drainage and soil carbon uptake by vegetation regrowth, we conclude that models considering only gradual permafrost thaw are substantially underestimating carbon emissions from thawing permafrost. |
| Author | Kuhry, Peter Jones, Miriam C. Turetsky, Merritt R. McGuire, A. David Schuur, Edward A. G. Lawrence, David M. Gibson, Carolyn Anthony, Katey Walter Grosse, Guido Abbott, Benjamin W. Koven, Charles Olefeldt, David Hugelius, Gustaf Sannel, A. Britta K. |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Merritt R. orcidid: 0000-0003-0155-8666 surname: Turetsky fullname: Turetsky, Merritt R. email: merritt.turetsky@colorado.edu organization: Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR), University of Colorado Boulder – sequence: 2 givenname: Benjamin W. orcidid: 0000-0001-5861-3481 surname: Abbott fullname: Abbott, Benjamin W. organization: Department of Plant and Wildlife Sciences, Brigham Young University – sequence: 3 givenname: Miriam C. orcidid: 0000-0002-6650-7619 surname: Jones fullname: Jones, Miriam C. organization: United States Geological Survey – sequence: 4 givenname: Katey Walter orcidid: 0000-0003-2079-2896 surname: Anthony fullname: Anthony, Katey Walter organization: Water and Environmental Research Center, University of Alaska – sequence: 5 givenname: David orcidid: 0000-0002-5976-1475 surname: Olefeldt fullname: Olefeldt, David organization: Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta – sequence: 6 givenname: Edward A. G. orcidid: 0000-0002-1096-2436 surname: Schuur fullname: Schuur, Edward A. G. organization: Center for Ecosystem Science and Society and Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University – sequence: 7 givenname: Guido orcidid: 0000-0001-5895-2141 surname: Grosse fullname: Grosse, Guido organization: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam – sequence: 8 givenname: Peter surname: Kuhry fullname: Kuhry, Peter organization: Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University – sequence: 9 givenname: Gustaf orcidid: 0000-0002-8096-1594 surname: Hugelius fullname: Hugelius, Gustaf organization: Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University – sequence: 10 givenname: Charles orcidid: 0000-0002-3367-0065 surname: Koven fullname: Koven, Charles organization: Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory – sequence: 11 givenname: David M. orcidid: 0000-0002-2968-3023 surname: Lawrence fullname: Lawrence, David M. organization: National Center for Atmospheric Research – sequence: 12 givenname: Carolyn surname: Gibson fullname: Gibson, Carolyn organization: Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph – sequence: 13 givenname: A. Britta K. orcidid: 0000-0002-1350-6516 surname: Sannel fullname: Sannel, A. Britta K. organization: Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University – sequence: 14 givenname: A. David orcidid: 0000-0003-4646-0750 surname: McGuire fullname: McGuire, A. David organization: Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks |
| BackLink | https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-180440$$DView record from Swedish Publication Index |
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| Snippet | The permafrost zone is expected to be a substantial carbon source to the atmosphere, yet large-scale models currently only simulate gradual changes in... |
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| SubjectTerms | 704/106 704/158 704/242 704/4111 704/47 Atmospheric models Carbon Carbon emissions Carbon sinks Carbon sources Carbon uptake Climate change Climate models Computer simulation Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Earth System Sciences Emissions Forecasting Geochemistry Geology Geophysics/Geodesy Lakes Landslides Large-scale models Permafrost Permafrost thaws Regrowth Scale models Soil Soil stabilization Soils Thawing Uptake Vegetation Vegetation regrowth Wetlands |
| Title | Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw |
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