On retrodictions of global mantle flow with assimilated surface velocities
Modeling past states of Earth's mantle and relating them to geologic observations such as continental‐scale uplift and subsidence is an effective method for testing mantle convection models. However, mantle convection is chaotic and two identical mantle models initialized with slightly differen...
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| Published in | Geophysical research letters Vol. 42; no. 20; pp. 8341 - 8348 |
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| Main Authors | , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Washington
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
28.10.2015
John Wiley & Sons, Inc |
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| Abstract | Modeling past states of Earth's mantle and relating them to geologic observations such as continental‐scale uplift and subsidence is an effective method for testing mantle convection models. However, mantle convection is chaotic and two identical mantle models initialized with slightly different temperature fields diverge exponentially in time until they become uncorrelated, thus limiting retrodictions (i.e., reconstructions of past states of Earth's mantle obtained using present information) to the recent past. We show with 3‐D spherical mantle convection models that retrodictions of mantle flow can be extended significantly if knowledge of the surface velocity field is available. Assimilating surface velocities produces in some cases negative Lyapunov times (i.e., e‐folding times), implying that even a severely perturbed initial condition may evolve toward the reference state. A history of the surface velocity field for Earth can be obtained from past plate motion reconstructions for time periods of a mantle overturn, suggesting that mantle flow can be reconstructed over comparable times.
Key Points
Long‐term retrodictions of mantle convection are hindered by chaotic drift
Reconstructions of past plate motion provide fundamental information about mantle flow in the past
Assimilation of past plate motion data greatly improves long‐term retrodictions of mantle convection |
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| AbstractList | Modeling past states of Earth's mantle and relating them to geologic observations such as continental-scale uplift and subsidence is an effective method for testing mantle convection models. However, mantle convection is chaotic and two identical mantle models initialized with slightly different temperature fields diverge exponentially in time until they become uncorrelated, thus limiting retrodictions (i.e., reconstructions of past states of Earth's mantle obtained using present information) to the recent past. We show with 3-D spherical mantle convection models that retrodictions of mantle flow can be extended significantly if knowledge of the surface velocity field is available. Assimilating surface velocities produces in some cases negative Lyapunov times (i.e., e-folding times), implying that even a severely perturbed initial condition may evolve toward the reference state. A history of the surface velocity field for Earth can be obtained from past plate motion reconstructions for time periods of a mantle overturn, suggesting that mantle flow can be reconstructed over comparable times. Modeling past states of Earth's mantle and relating them to geologic observations such as continental-scale uplift and subsidence is an effective method for testing mantle convection models. However, mantle convection is chaotic and two identical mantle models initialized with slightly different temperature fields diverge exponentially in time until they become uncorrelated, thus limiting retrodictions (i.e., reconstructions of past states of Earth's mantle obtained using present information) to the recent past. We show with 3-D spherical mantle convection models that retrodictions of mantle flow can be extended significantly if knowledge of the surface velocity field is available. Assimilating surface velocities produces in some cases negative Lyapunov times (i.e., e-folding times), implying that even a severely perturbed initial condition may evolve toward the reference state. A history of the surface velocity field for Earth can be obtained from past plate motion reconstructions for time periods of a mantle overturn, suggesting that mantle flow can be reconstructed over comparable times. Key Points * Long-term retrodictions of mantle convection are hindered by chaotic drift * Reconstructions of past plate motion provide fundamental information about mantle flow in the past * Assimilation of past plate motion data greatly improves long-term retrodictions of mantle convection Modeling past states of Earth's mantle and relating them to geologic observations such as continental‐scale uplift and subsidence is an effective method for testing mantle convection models. However, mantle convection is chaotic and two identical mantle models initialized with slightly different temperature fields diverge exponentially in time until they become uncorrelated, thus limiting retrodictions (i.e., reconstructions of past states of Earth's mantle obtained using present information) to the recent past. We show with 3‐D spherical mantle convection models that retrodictions of mantle flow can be extended significantly if knowledge of the surface velocity field is available. Assimilating surface velocities produces in some cases negative Lyapunov times (i.e., e‐folding times), implying that even a severely perturbed initial condition may evolve toward the reference state. A history of the surface velocity field for Earth can be obtained from past plate motion reconstructions for time periods of a mantle overturn, suggesting that mantle flow can be reconstructed over comparable times. Key Points Long‐term retrodictions of mantle convection are hindered by chaotic drift Reconstructions of past plate motion provide fundamental information about mantle flow in the past Assimilation of past plate motion data greatly improves long‐term retrodictions of mantle convection |
| Author | Schuberth, Bernhard S. A. Bunge, Hans-Peter Colli, Lorenzo |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Lorenzo surname: Colli fullname: Colli, Lorenzo email: colli@geophysik.uni-muenchen.de organization: Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Munich, Munich, Germany – sequence: 2 givenname: Hans-Peter surname: Bunge fullname: Bunge, Hans-Peter organization: Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Munich, Munich, Germany – sequence: 3 givenname: Bernhard S. A. surname: Schuberth fullname: Schuberth, Bernhard S. A. organization: Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Munich, Munich, Germany |
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| CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_1002_2016GL067929 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43017_022_00384_8 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_epsl_2016_11_003 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_gr_2017_03_011 crossref_primary_10_1093_gji_ggx489 crossref_primary_10_1029_2019GC008303 crossref_primary_10_1098_rspa_2018_0329 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tecto_2017_06_028 crossref_primary_10_3389_feart_2022_889907 crossref_primary_10_1029_2020JB019758 crossref_primary_10_5194_gmd_17_5057_2024 crossref_primary_10_1093_gji_ggab108 crossref_primary_10_1098_rspa_2020_0390 crossref_primary_10_1093_gji_ggaa023 crossref_primary_10_1111_1755_6724_14226 crossref_primary_10_1093_gji_ggad188 crossref_primary_10_5194_se_13_583_2022 crossref_primary_10_1007_s13137_016_0080_5 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_gr_2017_04_016 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_gr_2017_04_027 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_pepi_2024_107195 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_gr_2017_04_028 |
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| Copyright | 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
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| Snippet | Modeling past states of Earth's mantle and relating them to geologic observations such as continental‐scale uplift and subsidence is an effective method for... Modeling past states of Earth's mantle and relating them to geologic observations such as continental-scale uplift and subsidence is an effective method for... |
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| SubjectTerms | chaos Chaos theory Convection Convection models Convection modes data assimilation Earth Earth mantle Earth surface Fields Folding Geological time History Lyapunov exponent Mantle Mantle convection Methods Modelling Overturn Plate motion plate motion history Plate tectonics Plates (tectonics) Polycrystals Reconstruction Subsidence surface velocities Surface velocity Temperature distribution Temperature effects Temperature fields Testing Three dimensional models Uplift Velocity |
| Title | On retrodictions of global mantle flow with assimilated surface velocities |
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