Omicron BA.2 (B.1.1.529.2): High Potential for Becoming the Next Dominant Variant

• Published in: The journal of physical chemistry letters Vol. 13; no. 17; pp. 3840 - 3849
• Main Authors: Chen, Jiahui, Wei, Guo-Wei
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States American Chemical Society 05.05.2022
• Subjects: Antibodies, Monoclonal; COVID-19; Humans; Physical Insights into Materials and Molecular Properties; SARS-CoV-2; Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus
• ISSN: 1948-7185; 1948-7185
• DOI: 10.1021/acs.jpclett.2c00469

The Omicron variant has three subvariants: BA.1 (B.1.1.529.1), BA.2 (B.1.1.529.2), and BA.3 (B.1.1.529.3). BA.2 is found to be able to alarmingly reinfect patients originally infected by Omicron BA.1. An important question is whether BA.2 or BA.3 will become a new dominating “variant of concern”. Currently, no experimental data has been reported about BA.2 and BA.3. We construct a novel algebraic topology-based deep learning model to systematically evaluate BA.2’s and BA.3’s infectivity, vaccine breakthrough capability, and antibody resistance. Our comparative analysis of all main variants, namely, Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Lambda, Mu, BA.1, BA.2, and BA.3, unveils that BA.2 is about 1.5 and 4.2 times as contagious as BA.1 and Delta, respectively. It is also 30% and 17-fold more capable than BA.1 and Delta, respectively, to escape current vaccines. Therefore, we project that Omicron BA.2 is on a path to becoming the next dominant variant. We forecast that like Omicron BA.1, BA.2 will also seriously compromise most existing monoclonal antibodies. All key predictions have been nearly perfectly confirmed before the official publication of this work.