Decadal climate predictions for the period 1901-2010 with a coupled climate model

• Published in: Geophysical research letters Vol. 41; no. 6; pp. 2100 - 2107
• Main Authors: Müller, W. A., Pohlmann, H., Sienz, F., Smith, D.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington Blackwell Publishing Ltd 28.03.2014; John Wiley & Sons, Inc
• Subjects: Climate; Climate change; decadal climate prediction; Enlargement; Geophysics; Mathematical models; Meteorology; Simulation; Skills; Summer; Time series; AN, North Atlantic
• ISSN: 0094-8276; 1944-8007
• DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059259

An ensemble of yearly initialized decadal predictions is performed with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model to examine the forecast skill for the period from 1901 to 2010. Compared to the more recent period (1960 to present day), the extended period leads to an enlargement of regions with significant anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) for predicted surface temperatures. This arises from an increased contribution of the trend, which is also found in the uninitialized runs. Additionally, in the North Atlantic decadal variability plays a larger role over the extended period, with detrended time series showing higher ACC for the extended compared to the short period. Furthermore, in contrast to the uninitialized simulations, the initialized predictions capture the North Atlantic warming events during the 1920s and 1990s, together with some of the surface climate impacts including warm European summer temperatures and a northward shift of Atlantic tropical rainfall. Key Points First decadal climate predictions made starting from 1901 Inclusion of few more cycles of decadal variability for skill estimation First prediction of the 1920s North Atlantic climate transition and impact